One of the biggest stories of last week was how SCYNEXIS, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCYX) shares plunged 34% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at US$0.65. Revenues of US$121k came in 9.8% below estimates, but statutory losses were well contained with a per-share loss of US$0.96 being some 11% smaller than what analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the latest consensus from SCYNEXIS's five analysts is for revenues of US$250.0k in 2020, which would reflect a major 107% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.43 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$233.3k and losses of US$0.47 per share in 2020. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with analysts upgrading revenues and making a modest lift to earnings per share in particular
Despite these upgrades, analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$4.42, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SCYNEXIS at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SCYNEXIS shareholders.
Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how SCYNEXIS forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that analysts are forecasting SCYNEXIS to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow 107%. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 43% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider market, which suggest that (in aggregate) market revenues are expected to grow 5.1% next year. Although SCYNEXIS's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SCYNEXIS going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
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