Kasbah Resources Limited (ASX:KAS) shareholders are doubtless heartened to see the share price bounce 100% in just one week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 95% in that time. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery.
While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
We don't think Kasbah Resources's revenue of AU$5,363 is enough to establish significant demand. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, investors may be hoping that Kasbah Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.
Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Kasbah Resources investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.
Our data indicates that Kasbah Resources had AU$6.2m more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in December 2019. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. But since the share price has dived -44% per year, over 5 years , it looks like some investors think it's time to abandon ship, so to speak. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Kasbah Resources's cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? It would bother me, that's for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, Kasbah Resources shareholders did even worse, losing 78%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 43% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Kasbah Resources (3 are concerning) that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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