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Edited Transcript of BMPS.MI earnings conference call or presentation 7-Feb-19 1:00pm GMT

Full Year 2018 Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA Earnings Call

Siena Feb 13, 2019 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA earnings conference call or presentation Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 1:00:00pm GMT

TEXT version of Transcript

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Corporate Participants

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* Andrea Rovellini

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO

* Marco Morelli

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director

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Conference Call Participants

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* Corinne Beverley Cunningham

Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Banks and Insurance Credit Research

* Luigi Tramontana

Banca Akros S.p.A., Research Division - Analyst

* Otto Dichtl

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Inc, Fixed Income, Research Division - MD

* Riccardo Rovere

Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst

* Stan Borin

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Presentation

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [1]

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Good morning, everybody, and thanks for attending. I'm here with Andrea Rovellini, our CFO. We'll take you through the key messages of our 2018 full year results, and then, as usual, we are open to questions.

Let me start with the factual picture of what we did in 2018. This is Page 2. At the beginning of the year, I repeatedly stated that 2018 was the first step of a long journey to restore a sound commercial position of Monte dei Paschi and to make sure that the bank and the people in our network was back again in the commercial fray.

Point number two, we are possibly the only financial institution in the Italian market, which is concurrently moving along 2 very different lines. On the one hand, we are bound to follow very stringent constraints of a cumbersome Restructuring Plan; and on the other hand, we had to work on the relaunch of the bank, both from a balance sheet point of view in terms of growing our loans and our deposits and looking after the improvement on the PL side.

Everything I just said in the context of a macro environment which has been evolving and changing after the first quarter of last year, and last but not least, with the clear lodestar of preserving our capital requirements, our capital buffers and our liquidity position.

Page 2, as I said, is a summary of our numbers. Starting from the upper left-hand side, EUR 937 million of pre-provision profit. This is plus 2% vis-à-vis of year-end '17 and net of one-offs. There is a detail section in Page 32. The main one-off being EUR 550 million of impact of the burden-sharing in our top line last year.

Cost of risk year-end at 72 basis points. Net of few extraordinary items, one being the impact on the disposal of our Morgana portfolio, which we finalized in the last week of December. The cost of risk on an ordinary basis is actually in line with 60 -- mid-60s guidance given in previous quarters.

That results in a net income of EUR 279 million, with a negative net income of EUR 101 million for Q4, impacted by EUR 220 million nonoperating items. Over EUR 200 million are related to the extraordinary nonoperating items linked to the restructuring cost set forth by the Restructuring Plan. And we did mention, you might recall, during the presentation of our interim results back in August that we would have posted around that numbers in the second half of the year.

Derisking, I think this is another major step forward for the bank. Our gross NPE ratio is now 16.4% versus 36% year-end '17. And its net number of 8.7% compared to 16.3% in 2017, and we'll take you through a detailed analysis of our NPE trajectory and strategy going forward.

Regulatory requirements. Core Tier 1 of 13.7% on a transitional basis, and that includes everything we disclosed a few weeks ago on the draft 2019 SREP indication, and 11.3% fully loaded, which is 11.7% pro forma, including expected reversal of DTAs till the end of the transitional period. Total capital year-end '18, 15.2%.

I now turn to Page 3. As I said, making sure that the bank was back on -- was back in the market with a proactive stance was the first item on our agenda. We did manage to achieve very good numbers in terms of growing our flow of new mortgage, 68% year-on-year, grow our flow on new corporate SMEs mortgage, which is a 43% year-on-year. And that's including from Q3 '18 onwards a pretty hefty repricing of the new flows. This is the first time in a number of years that the new production and the new flows has a very positive sign in the absolute amount year-on-year.

Just to mention, 2 domains where we proved to be effective: the commission of our bancassurance business increased both in absolute number and in relative market share; and our new banking online entity, Widiba, did manage to have -- to take full advantage of the migration of around 150k clients which we completed in Q4.

All of this in spite of 500 branches closed in the last 24 months and around 1,800 staff exits through the Solidarity Fund, and as you well appreciate it, this is a process that will unfold in the -- in 2019 and in the following year.

So the fact that we managed to invert the trajectory on our key items of the balance sheet in spite of a very hefty reduction of our network is another sign -- is another very positive sign.

Turning to Page 4, another key items in the agenda at the beginning of the year was derisking, both on the nonperforming and UTP. I think we managed the -- we managed to complete, to my knowledge, the largest transaction on NPL disposal, EUR 24 billion were securitized and finalized last year.

In addition, during the last week of December, we announced EUR 3.1 billion sale of small tickets versus a target of EUR 2.6 billion. And an additional -- and at the end of the year, we've beaten the target of a EUR 1.5 billion UTP reduction. And again, in 2017, the target for UTP reduction was EUR 1 billion, and we completed EUR 1.5 billion of reduction. Last year, the target was itself EUR 1.5 billion, and we completed EUR 2.3 billion, and we finalized EUR 2.3 billion of reduction. The aim is, for 2019, to confirm the target of EUR 2 billion reduction and possibly assuming market conditions will not deteriorate to go beyond this target.

In a way, that is another key items in our operating business. We do have a team of people, which is now state-of-the-art in terms of managing, disposal of both NPL and UTPs and numbers speak for themselves.

Page 5, another point in our agenda was to make sure that the bank was able to manage the capital position according to market trends and the environment altogether. These are the numbers. We are now at 13.7% Core Tier 1 year-end which is, on a fully loaded basis, 11.3%. And that's thanks to a very strong risk-weighted asset reduction completed in Q4. Last summer, we started to identify, which were the possible means to reduce RWA without a strong -- without throttling backward on the growth of our loan book, but as I said, always with the aim of preserving capital requirements. Again, these are the numbers, and that proves that the bank is able to adjust and manage RWA according to the change in the macro environment without affecting -- deeply affecting the growth of our loan book and commercial deposits.

I now pass on to Andrea Rovellini, which will take you through some of the other key items in our year-end and Q4. Please, Andrea.

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [2]

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Okay. Thank you, Marco. So the capital boost, important that we realize in the last quarter last year was mainly driven by the risk-weighted asset reduction, with a drop that is around EUR 5 billion in the quarter.

Page 6, you can see all the items on which we work in order to reduce this amount, and we have minus EUR 3 billion, thanks to the reducing of our exposure towards corporate and large corporate customer. We manage on a different way the relationship with this customer. We cast some marginal line, marginal in terms of contribution. And this derisking activity, we can say that doesn't compromise our forecast in terms of trend of the net interest income for the next quarter.

We have around EUR 1 billion of improvement coming from the better evaluation of all the information that we have on our loans in order to have a more eligible guarantee and the right classification of our customer and then the positive contribution from the disposal of the nonperforming loans.

Page 7, we have a quick look of the results, quarter-to-quarter and the full year. We can say that in the last quarter, we have a negative impact for around EUR 45 million that is related to the derisking activity. We have the net impact from the disposal of the bad loans and unlikely-to-pay and then limited impact on the disposal of the financial assets.

Costs are maintaining a strong trend of increasing efficiencies in terms of the percentage on the total amount of revenues, and we have closing the year with minus 7.6% year-on-year, whereas in this case, we have more than EUR 20 million, we can say, extraordinary cost related to impairment on our real estate in the last quarter.

The level of the loan loss provision is impacted by few large ticket in the last quarter, but migrated to performing to nonperforming. And then we have also limited that a little effect coming from the more adverse macroeconomic scenario that we have to take in account to analyze exactly the possible losses on the existing loans.

It is important to underline that the huge amount of all the nonoperating items, EUR 420 million for the full year, half of them comes from the restructuring process. The main item in these restructuring costs is the financing of the new Solidarity Fund initiatives that cost us around EUR 150 million in the last quarter. Under this plan, starting from the first month this year, we will have around 650 employees that will enter into early retirement plans. So we will see the benefit in terms of cutting of our labor costs coming from this -- the second quarter this year.

If we switch to the level of the volumes, Page 8, we can say that the reduction in the quarter for the direct funding is mainly driven through behavior of our institutional customer with a typical end of year movement, minus EUR 2.3 billion on the minus EUR 3.4 billion that were present.

And in terms of loan book, we can say that the stability that we present quarter-to-quarter in the last quarter is -- comes from a balance within the negative trend of commercial loans, linked to the reduction of our risk-weighted assets that we comment before. That is compensated with an increase in the security lending that -- with the purchase of EUR 2.8 billion of Italian govies in the last part of last year.

We can switch directly to Page 10 analyzing the trend of our liquidity. So we can say that despite the difficulty that we have in the market condition and older maturities during last year that amount for around -- between EUR 7 billion and EUR 8 billion, we were able to sustain a good level and then increasing in all of the ratios indicator for the liquidity. So the liquidity coverage ratio above 200% and also the NSFR that improve up to 112% starting from 110% at the end of '17.

The improvement in the liquidity indicator is the result of stabilization in terms of deposits. In the upper part of the slide, you can see that the level of the current accounts and time deposits remain stable year-on-year with important reduction in terms of cost, minus 28 basis points in the year. And then, we have the contribution of the securitization of nonperforming loans and the increasing of activity via bilateral funding with institutional counterpart.

On the right side of the slide, you can see the maturities that we can have for the next 3 years and all the different sources on which we are working in order to compensate the expiring of the government guarantee bonds at the end of 2020 and also the possible reduction or maturity of the TLTRO that weights for EUR 16.5 billion starting from 2020.

So in our plan, we -- potentially, we doesn't include any possible new TLTRO, and we are working with all the different source of funding in order to sustain the level of the liquidity indicator for the future.

I think that it could be also interesting move to Page 11. Here we have the results of our position in terms of the recommendation that we receive in the draft SREP decision for the covering the stock of the nonperforming at the end of March last year and also the amount of the new flow that we generated from April last year, and you can see also the level of the coverage that we have at the end of the year.

So in order to analyze the potential impact on this recommendation and the strong indication that we have in the addendum for the new flow, we have to consider that at the moment that the definition of full coverage have to be assessed together with the ECB on the basis on approach that is "comply or explain." And then, there are other area that can influence the total amount of this level of recommendation that is the applications of the calendar provisioning on the stock.

It could be different -- the speed of growth in terms of reach the full coverage if we work around the average portfolio on each individual position.

Then we have the possible impact increasing the level of coverage on a prudential way on the level of the risk weight of these nonperforming. And then, we can say also that potential compensation or evaluation in terms setting the Pillar 2 requirement in case of full compliance with the recommendation.

Then we have all the flow that we could have on the nonperforming for the future because I feel that at the moment, we are not seeing any kind of significant impact in the Restructuring Plan period. So for the next 2 years adding this year, but we are remaining for all these elements on a situation of uncertain in terms of assessing the new future capital requirements from '22 and onward.

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [3]

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Let me switch back on an update on our commitments set by DG Comp in the context of the Restructuring Plan. Starting from derisking, I think we are sailing ahead of plan in terms of UTP reduction and the consolidation on the bad loan portfolio, and that all done in compliance with management and credit policy reporting and control requirements set forth in the context of the plan.

Unwinding on the foreign network, you have an update of the -- of what we -- where we stand year-end 2018. Cost reduction is ahead of plan in terms of absolute number, and target for 2018 in terms of operating costs and branches shutdowns and the result seeing no additional cost cutting measures being implemented on the basis of 2018 year-end numbers.

Disposal of noncore assets is on track, and we finalized the incorporation -- the unwinding of Casaforte and Perimetro. We are finalizing terms and conditions for the real estate disposals. This is a process which will unfold in the first half of March, and we will clearly communicate that to the market as soon as we are ready.

On the capital side, we were unable to complete the issue of the remaining EUR 700 million of Tier 2, which was meant to be done by year-end 2018. Our aim is to go live as soon as there is a window and an opportunity in the market. That is, as I said, a sort of tick-the-boxes list of the major commitments on the Restructuring Plan.

Just to get to the end, a few closing remarks. I think 2018, as I said, what we presented is a factual synopsis of the numbers. And then each of you can come up with questions and make their own judgment. We want -- as far as the outlook for 2019, we want to consolidate a sustainable growth delivery on our commercial activity altogether. And that means that our aim is to do better than 2018 in terms of the numbers and results. So to improve performance always preserving capital requirements and liquidity, which is pretty much what we managed to do last year.

In the context of the current outlook and the macro environment, we have updated the growth of our balance sheet and key P&L items on a slower pace, on a more conservative growth trajectory, as I said, for both, our balance sheet and key P&L indicator. And that would means lowering down initial targets set forth almost 2 years ago when the plan was approved by the European Commission. We're going to do that always preserving capital ratios well above the regulatory requirements.

I think that's basically it, and we leave room to questions.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the conference call in English from [Sajan Shah] with Morgan Stanley.

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Unidentified Analyst, [2]

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Just a couple of questions. The first one was around the Q4 operating costs. Can you breakdown how much of that is in -- of the EUR 635 million you'd consider an extraordinary item for that quarter? And what the normalized number should look like? Then in terms of the real estate disposals that you've announced, what do you think the likely RWA impact of that would be? And finally, with regards to the Tier 2, have you had any suggestion that alternative measures would count towards kind of ticking that box in the Commission's eyes?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [3]

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Okay. Let me start, and then I'll pass to Andrea. On the Tier 2, we are clearly looking at alternative measures. And as I said, we need to be opportunistic. As soon as there is a window, I think we're going to go for it. But again, we need to make sure that everything is done at no detriment to our P&L and our capital requirements. And by the way, what we did a few weeks ago on the covered bond is a clear example that as soon as there is an opportunity, we go for it. On the real estate disposals, Andrea?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [4]

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On the real estate disposal, we are planning to be in line with the commitment. So the commitment that we have with DG Comp says that we have to dispose EUR 500 million of real estate within the end of the plan. At the moment, we can say that starting from June last 2017, so at the starting point of the Restructuring Plan, we dispose around EUR 80 million of real estate. So at the moment, we are working with EUR 400 million. That is our goal, and we will start the pre-marketing and the marketing activity from March this year. We have, in terms of the trend of the operating cost, an extraordinary factor. That is impairment on a part of our real estate that weighed in the quarter for EUR 23 million. And this is -- there is a weigh also the seasonality in terms of a quarterly trend is emphasized in the last quarter.

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Operator [5]

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The next question is from Riccardo Rovere with Mediobanca.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [6]

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Just wanted to double check on the credit losses in the quarter. What has been driving this -- the spike in the last part of the year? Sorry if you have already explained that. I had to connect with a little bit of delay.

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [7]

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So in the last quarter, we have an increase in the cost of credit. That is mainly linked to the disposal of the bad allowance that we completed. So we have around EUR 30 million coming from the balance within Morgana, so the small ticket and the leasing. Then we have around between EUR 20 million, EUR 25 million that comes from the new macroeconomic scenario that we adopt in order to analyze the level of the provision of all the performing loans. And then we can say that we have 2 main position that moves from performing to nonperforming. And if we doesn't -- don't take in account all these 3 elements, we are in line with the last quarter.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [8]

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Just one clarification. When you mentioned on the board -- on the portion related to performing loans, if I guess correctly from your comment, this is related to the lifetime expected loss on the performing. Did I get it right?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [9]

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Yes. As you know, under the new accounting principle that we adopted from this year, we have also to take in account the forecast in terms of macroeconomic environment in order to analyze if the level of provision on the existing and the performing loans is in line. So we have this kind of effect. And starting from June through the closing of the year, we readjust to downwards the expectation in terms of Italian growth of the GDP, and this is the result.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [10]

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Mr. Rovellini, is this something that you do at once a year, twice a year, or every single quarter?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [11]

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This is something that we take in account when we have, we can say, important movement in the financial forecast. So if the movement is very, very low quarter-by-quarter, we don't take in account. But we have to consider the important different macro environment in which we close the year in comparison with the half results that we have in the middle of last year.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [12]

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And I would imagine a lot of, probably several assumptions go into the models. But is it fair to say the most relevant one is GDP growth? Is it fair to say?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [13]

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Yes, there is sensitivity inside the GDP grow and the level of the provision for the performing loans. And also in terms of level of the LGD that we have on the nonperforming have to take in account also the macroeconomic environment.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [14]

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And just to give an -- to give maybe, if possible, to give us an idea. Would you be comfortable in sharing with us what kind of GDP level you plugged before and after the adjustment? Just to have -- just for us to have an idea of what...

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [15]

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I can tell you that the difference in terms of increasing the coverage is linked with around 30 basis points less in terms of GDP growth.

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Operator [16]

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The next question is from Corinne Cunningham with Autonomous.

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Corinne Beverley Cunningham, Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Banks and Insurance Credit Research [17]

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Couple of questions. First one was on TLTRO. What kind of contingency planning you have in place in case there is not a TLTRO 3? And then the second question was just on your capital trajectory. And are there any, let's say, foreseeable one-offs that you're planning for, for 2019?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [18]

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Okay. On the second questions, if I could hear very badly, but nevertheless, on the second question, foreseeable one-offs in 2019, we have -- I think, as we speak, we do have everything which is part of the Restructuring Plan, i.e., staff reductions, unwinding of -- completion of the run off of our French branch, although the great chunk of the extraordinary cost has already been posted in 2018. So as we speak, we do not see any major extras on 2019. On the TLTRO, Andrea?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [19]

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On that TLTRO, we -- at the moment, we are assuming on, we can say, on a conservative view on the possibility that this instrument could be renewed for the future. And Page 10, you can see all of the potential source of funding on which we are working. We started with the covered bond at the beginning of this year. And then together with the second part of the Tier 2, we will also have a new issue in terms of senior bonds, and then we had also the contribution from the commercial activity because we want to maintain more or less stable for the next 3 years at the level of our loan book, improving the level of the risk weight. And so we have room in order to increase also our commercial deposits and then we have the contribution of other kind of bilateral funding. So at the moment, we have a plan that does -- a funding plan that doesn't take in consideration the renewal of TLTRO. If we will have some difference in this view, we can adjust our funding plan. You ask also something about the possible level of the capitalization. So -- we can say that at the moment, we presented fully phased common equity Tier 1, 11.3%, that moves up to 11.7%, considering the natural and expected trend in terms of reassessment of NPE. We can say that this is the basis on the level of the capital ratio that we can expect for the next year. And then we have to adjust the level of the profit that each year would realize. So I think that the fully phase is the bottom indicator on which we have to build up all our capability to increase the level of the profits for the next year.

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Corinne Beverley Cunningham, Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Banks and Insurance Credit Research [20]

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And nothing more on TRIM or anything like that?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [21]

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Sorry, I can hear you barely. Nothing more on?

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Corinne Beverley Cunningham, Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Banks and Insurance Credit Research [22]

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Sorry, nothing more on TRIM or anything like that?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [23]

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Yes. On the TRIM, we will have some effect that at the moment we are estimating not for this year but at the beginning of the next year. And this effect could be compensate with the other kind of businesses in terms of risk-weighted assets evaluation and then with the profit that we will generate. So also in this case, we have considered that we are able to compensate the possible negative effect from TRIM on our models.

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Corinne Beverley Cunningham, Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Banks and Insurance Credit Research [24]

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And just lastly, on TLTRO, I appreciate your funding plan, but that's normally you have to do bit-by-bit when markets allows. EUR 16.5 billion is a lot to try and cover through normal funding. If the TLTRO is not rolled over, would you simply collapse the underlying asset liability book? Or just going to private repo, what would be the, if you like, the emergency response if TLTRO is not rolled over?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [25]

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At the moment, our funding plan doesn't take in account the renewal of the TLTRO. So we are working in order to have all of the source of funding available. As you can imagine, we have also a, contingency funding plan that would be a buffer -- will constitute a buffer in order to compensate some possible difficulties in order to reach the target of the existing funding plan. So I can tell you that at the moment, our liquidity position is a position -- is a starting point that is very important in terms of dimension and also the first effect that we realize -- we catch from the market and these are the set terms of our first issue of covered bond after years is very, very good. So we have room in order to manage on a different way all of the loans that at the moment are used in order to finance the TLTRO on other ways. It is a question of cost, but we -- at the moment, we are considering, in our plan, this potential increasing of cost in the differentiation of the cost of -- the source of funding that at the end for us have the aim to have less dependencies on the ECB injection of liquidity.

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Operator [26]

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The next question is from Stan Borin with Finisterre Capital.

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Stan Borin, [27]

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I have several questions, please. First one relates to Slide 11. So on it, you say that there's expected to be no significant impact over the Restructuring Plan period given the ECB's letter you received at the beginning of January. I just wanted to clarify, does that refer to the original Restructuring Plan, where the cost of risk for 2019 and '20 was respectively 79 and 58 basis points. So do you see no material change against those figures? Or was there something else? And while we on this question, can you please give us any guidance for cost of risk for 2019? That will be my first question.

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [28]

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Marco Morelli. As we said already, the guidance on the cost of risk, assuming the macro environment is the one we live today, I wouldn't dare to go projecting anything without knowing what is going to happen in the macro environment throughout this year. So as we speak, guidance on the cost of credit is to shoot for something which is pretty much in line to the number of 2018. Andrea?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [29]

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And we say no significant impact over the Restructuring Plan considering that this kind of recommendation for increasing the level of coverage doesn't consider any kind of possible increase for the accounting policies that we have. So we are speaking about Pillar 2 possible requirement. We can say that no significant impact means that we will maintain on the future a huge buffer above the minimum requirement. And the minimum request from ECB in order to compensate this potential need of capital coming from the calendar provisioning.

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Stan Borin, [30]

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Okay. Next question is on the phasing on the CET1 and total capital. So the buffers you gave is against the fourth quarter requirements or the fourth quarter capital levels. Is there -- what is your estimate for the phasing impact in the first quarter of '19, please?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [31]

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In the first quarter this year, we will have the amortization of the reduction of the filter on the first-time adoption IFRS 9 amount. That weight around now I can tell you exactly the figure of around 30 basis point. We are speaking about EUR 150 million because we move from 95% to 85% in terms of level of positive filter on the capital affect that we recorded at the beginning of last year.

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Stan Borin, [32]

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So this is the total that you expect? It's not only IFRS 9. This is the grand total.

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [33]

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No. The only -- the main filter that -- so the main impact from the transitional to the fully phase and the impact on the phasing is only link to the amortization of the different weight of the filter for the first-time adoption on IFRS 9. We don't have any kind of other different item that can affect the trend of our capital ratio. We have, again, a positive -- a possible positive affect that comes from the reversal of DTA that weighed in the time frame of the phasing of first-time adoption, 40 basis points.

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Stan Borin, [34]

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Very clear. On the Slide 20, please, we can see that default rates marginally went up in the fourth quarter when NPE inflow was EUR 600 million. Is there anything worth noting in that number? Would you comment on that, please?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [35]

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Excuse me, you said Page 20?

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Stan Borin, [36]

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Page 20. NPE inflows from performing, default rate 2.1%.

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [37]

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Yes, yes. In this trend that we will pick in the last quarter, we have also -- we can say the effect of the 2 main position we referred before that hit also the level of the cost of credit, without these 2 main position the default rate is 1.8%. And this is something in line with the trend that we record during all other quarter last year.

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Stan Borin, [38]

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And so you say it's seasonal. Is that correct?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [39]

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There is also a kind of seasonality in terms of the trend of the classification of the nonperforming. But this is something that we really have at the end of the year for all other quarter.

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Stan Borin, [40]

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Understood. And lastly, I was just curious if you have considered a Tier 2 solution that will be similar to what Carige has done. So in the -- from the same funds and the same format, would that be a possibility for you guys?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [41]

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Morelli again. I think, as we mentioned earlier, we're going to work on something which is feasible according to market condition.

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Operator [42]

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The next question is from Otto Dichtl with Stifel, Nicolaus.

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Otto Dichtl, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Inc, Fixed Income, Research Division - MD [43]

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Yes, could I just ask what your sensitivity to the BTP-Bund spread is at the moment, please?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [44]

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Yes. You have Page 27 of the presentation, the sensitivity on the level of the BTP-Bund spread. And at the moment, we have EUR 2.9 million for 1 basis point of movement on the 10 year.

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Operator [45]

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The next question is from [Shapa Vadita] with Barclays.

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Unidentified Analyst, [46]

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Could you just give a little bit more color in terms of the EUR 3 billion RWA reduction caused by the -- you showed on Slide 6, just details on how that's affected? What you estimate to be quantitatively in terms of impact on future earnings? And whether you have, if you needed to, any further flexibility to do any further such -- sorry, RWA reduction in the future?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [47]

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Sorry, again, could you please go through the question from start? The line was very bad. Apologies.

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Unidentified Analyst, [48]

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Yes, sure. It was just to ask about -- could you walk through the EUR 3 billion RWA reduction shown on Slide 6 in a little bit more detail, please? And also, whether there is any more latitude within the RWA pool to do any further such reduction if the need arose?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [49]

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Okay, Andrea?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [50]

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So the main reduction that we were able to obtain is linked to the reducing of the lending on the corporate business. So we decide not to renew some credit line, and we work in other to reduce the exposure on some other credit line for which our marginal level of interest -- so the level of our interest is marginal in terms of profitability, and this weighed for EUR 2.5 billion. Then we have the reduction of our financial assets. We decide to close some positions taking little losses. But at the end, we can say that the final relationship within the capital that we were able to release and the little losses we got was sustainable and important for us in time to reach good level of capital ratio. We can say that all this activity are factual. So we can maintain this level of -- also for the future without impact on the P&L, also because the reduction of corporate loans was compensated by an increase in the -- our position on amortizing cost on govies. We are entering this market with a level of spread BTP-Bund that was very, very high. So we can maintain profitability on this book above the level of the profitability of our corporate customer for the future.

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Operator [51]

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The next question is from Luigi Tramontana with Banca Akros.

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Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros S.p.A., Research Division - Analyst [52]

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I have a question left on the DTAs booked in the P&L which were definitely higher than expected. So wanted to know if you can, please, give some details on that concerning the DTA reassessment? And if this already includes the DTAs related to IFRS 9 FTA?

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Andrea Rovellini, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CFO [53]

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Yes. So we have a natural reassessment of DTA that weighed around EUR 50 million and EUR 60 million per quarter. That represent around EUR 250 million of ordinary reassessment. And then, in order to reach the total amount of reassessment that we recorded in for the full year, that is EUR 410 million, we have to take in account the positive effect coming from the cancellation of ACE, so the allowance for the corporate equity that is included in the capital budget for Italy. The positive contribution also coming from the different weight in order to have the fiscal impact for the first-time adoption, so the 10 years that is also in this case included in the budget law. This positive effect was compensated by a reduction as we say before of our forecast in terms of profitability for the next 3 years. Again, we will have -- we recorded a positive effect, and this is the result. It is important for me also to underline in this case that at the moment, we are maintaining around EUR 2 billion of DTA that are not recorded in our balance sheet. That's how we maintain more or less stable the very positive situation on the fiscal side.

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Operator [54]

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(Operator Instructions) Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. Gentlemen, would you like to add your final -- any final comments to conclude the conference?

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Marco Morelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. - CEO, General Manager & Director [55]

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If no more questions on the line, we go back to our board. And thanks very much again for attending. We are in London Monday and Tuesday for road show. So if any of you guys want to have an additional session, feel free to let us know. Thank you very much.