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Edited Transcript of DBX.OQ earnings conference call or presentation 8-Aug-19 9:00pm GMT

Q2 2019 Dropbox Inc Earnings Call

Aug 14, 2019 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Dropbox Inc earnings conference call or presentation Thursday, August 8, 2019 at 9:00:00pm GMT

TEXT version of Transcript

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Corporate Participants

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* Ajay V. Vashee

Dropbox, Inc. - CFO

* Andrew W. Houston

Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman

* Darren Yip

Dropbox, Inc. - Head of IR

* Yamini Rangan

Dropbox, Inc. - Chief Customer Officer

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Conference Call Participants

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* Christopher George Eberle

Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division - Research Analyst

* Daniel Peter Church

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Associate

* Hannah Rudoff

D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division - Research Analyst

* Howard Ma

Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Associate

* Jason Noah Ader

William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division - Partner & Co-Group Head of Technology, Media and Communications

* Karl Emil Keirstead

Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst

* Mark Ronald Murphy

JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - MD

* Patrick D. Walravens

JMP Securities LLC, Research Division - MD, Director of Technology Research and Senior Research Analyst

* Richard Hugh Davis

Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division - MD & Analyst

* Sean Thomas Handrahan

BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - Research Analyst

* Zachary Aaron Schwartzman

RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division - Analyst

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Presentation

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Operator [1]

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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining Dropbox Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay from the Investor Relations section of Dropbox website following this call.

I will now hand the call over to Darren Yip, Dropbox Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

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Darren Yip, Dropbox, Inc. - Head of IR [2]

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Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Dropbox's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Today, Dropbox will discuss the quarterly financial results that were distributed earlier. Statements on this call include forward-looking statements, including statements relating to the expected performance of our business, future financial results, strategy, long-term growth and overall future prospects. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied during this call, in particular, those described in our risk factors included in our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2019, and the risk factors that will be included in our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2019.

You should not rely on our forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. All forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions and beliefs as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them, except as required by law.

Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, and not as a substitute for, or in isolation from, our GAAP results. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results may be found in our earnings release, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC and may also be found in the supplemental investor materials posted on our Investor Relations website at investors.dropbox.com.

I would now like to turn the call over to Dropbox's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Drew Houston. Drew?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [3]

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Thanks, Darren. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call. On the call with me is Ajay Vashee, our Chief Financial Officer; Yamini Rangan, our Chief Customer Officer, will also join us during Q&A.

Today, I'll talk about our business and product highlights and the continued expansion of our ecosystem. Ajay will review our Q2 financial results, touch on our go-to-market strategy and provide guidance for Q3 in fiscal 2019.

In Q2, we delivered strong results across our business. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year, driven by paying user growth and ARPU expansion. We also generated robust margins as we continue to deliver a balance of both growth and profitability. These results continue to demonstrate the strength of our global collaboration platform, our efficient go-to-market strategy and our operational discipline.

So let's begin with our product update where we've had a number of exciting announcements. In Q2, we unveiled the new Dropbox. We believe that there's a lot of room for improvement in the experience using technology at work, and we think the new Dropbox can help make that experience a lot better for our users. Because while there are new tools and productivity apps that are meant to help us work better together, the reality is that they're creating new problems, too. Having all these new tools means our content is now scattered in all these different places. You have to keep toggling back and forth between the different apps and teams have a hard time staying coordinated, and it's hard to figure out who should be doing what.

And while we have a bunch of new tools, a bunch of the old ones we're using haven't really changed. The way we interact with files on our computers today hasn't really changed in 30 years. The file browser on your desktop is still the static view of files and folders and there are no people, no teams, no activity. And that's where the new Dropbox comes in. For over a decade, Dropbox has been a magic folder that lets you have all your stuff in one place.

In the new Dropbox, it evolves the magic folder into a magic workspace where you can have all your work in one place. The new Dropbox is the unified workspace to organize users' content, connect them to their tools and bring everyone together wherever they are. This includes an all-new desktop app that offers our users foreground experience they've never had with Dropbox before.

First, this new workspace brings users content together. The new Dropbox builds on our history of keeping people organized by bringing both cloud content and traditional files together so everything is in one place. And now, users can create, access and share cloud content like Google Docs, Sheets and Slides as well as traditional Office, PDF and image files within Dropbox. In addition, they can create and store shortcuts to web assets, news articles, Wiki pages and online project management and productivity tools together with the rest of their work in Dropbox. And with everything in one place, it's a lot easier to navigate. Users will have 1 search box not 10 to search across all their stuff.

Second, the new Dropbox brings its users tools together. We're making sure the apps people use throughout today are an integral part of the new Dropbox experience.

Building on our existing integrations with tools from companies like Salesforce, Adobe and Autodesk, we're introducing several new ones. They work seamlessly with Dropbox to help bring users' content into context. Starting with our new strategic partnership with Slack. The new Dropbox and Slack integration helps bridge the gap between content and communication, letting users collaborate seamlessly on shared items. Users will be able to start Slack conversations and send files to Slack channels directly from Dropbox and easily share Dropbox files within Slack conversations.

We also plan to facilitate cross-customer discovery of one of these other products, similar to our go-to-market relationship with Zoom. And speaking of our Zoom partnership, we went live with our integration in June, enabling users to bring their work in the videoconferences. From Dropbox, they'll be able to add and join Zoom meetings and during Zoom meetings, users will be able to share and collaborate on content that was in Dropbox.

We also announced a deep partnership with Atlassian. We're in the process of building enhanced integration with Atlassian to help teams more effectively manage their projects and content, and we'll have more to share on this dimension soon.

All of these partnerships expand our robust ecosystem and put Dropbox at the center of our users' workflows. We're firm believers in the power of integrations and our open and interoperable platform is one of our most important differentiators.

And finally, the new Dropbox brings people together. It isn't just about content and tools. At the heart of all that work is the people making it happen, so we've built new features to help teams stay in sync. We've transformed shared folders into rich workspaces. Now teams can get coordinated by adding descriptions to folders to help collaborators understand more about the work they're doing. Key content can be highlighted by pinning it to the top of the workspace, and users can even at mention people and assign to-dos so everyone knows what happens next.

Teams can also gain visibility into the latest progress on shared work. The new Dropbox lets users see file activity, including viewer info, the team collaboration on Dropbox content in Slack and Zoom, and keep tabs with the new team activity feed.

To close the loops, teams can also share feedback by creating comments right alongside their content across desktop, web and mobile. With the new Dropbox, all of your content, tools and teamwork live together in one collaborative workspace.

In addition to our new desktop app, we made improvements to our individual plans last quarter to help users work more efficiently. First, we added Dropbox Smart Sync to our Plus SKU. Smart Sync frees up hard drive space on users' computers by moving their content into the cloud while still giving them the ability to view and access files right from their desktop. In addition, we brought machine learning-enabled, full text search to Plus users, allowing them to search their files using keywords instead of just a file name.

We also introduced Dropbox Rewind to the plan, which is an account rollback capability that can quickly undo accidental edits or restore deleted work by taking folders or even an entire account back to a point in time.

Next, to enhance our Professional plan, we launched an even more powerful version of Smart Sync, which automates the process of moving less-frequently accessed items off users' computers and added an extended history version of Dropbox Rewind. In addition, Professional users now have access to premium rich previews, which includes an expanded list of newly supported file types.

Our Professional plan also includes a new watermarking tool that overlays ownership and date information on the files, allowing customers to protect their work when sharing with clients. And finally, we're increasing storage limits across both our individual and team SKUs to help us further differentiate our plans.

Turning to Dropbox Paper. While the new Dropbox is a powerful workspace to organize content and bring teams together, Paper continues to play an important role as our first party experience for content creation and collaboration.

Over the past few months, we have added a handful of new features to Paper tables. These enhancements help teams simplify project management with task assignments, color-coded progress markers and data and image organization. Tables are a key part of how teams stay organized, and the updates we've rolled out will help to further improve coordination and alignment so everyone working on a project can stay focused.

Paper is also helping to drive customer wins. In Q2, this included a Dropbox Business deployment with SHO-BOND Holdings, the Japanese firm specializing in contracting, civil engineering and construction. SHO-BOND is partnering with Dropbox to drive its digital transformation efforts and plans to use Paper to facilitate more efficient workflows for its field workers. In addition to improving productivity and efficiency, SHO-BOND will leverage Paper's native image embed capabilities to eliminate the need for physical whiteboards and enable workers to more effectively share critical information with their colleagues.

Next is the admin experience. Earlier this year, we launched activity pages to our Business teams, providing admins with visibility, controls and deployment tools to monitor how their users are engaging with Dropbox. Adding to these capabilities in Q2, we recently launched quick actions, which is a feature unique to Dropbox. This feature allows admins to quickly remediate issues they've identified in their team activity page through one-click actions, saving time on processes that would've previously taken multiple steps. Quick actions enables admins to unlink apps, remove and wipe devices, restore files and much more.

Now let's move onto the infrastructure that powers our platform. I'm pleased to announce that our new Oregon data center went live at the end of July. The Oregon facility is our fourth data center in the U.S. and will provide a more cost-efficient footprint for our West Coast traffic. As our user base continues to grow, we're managing our global infrastructure footprint with an eye towards maintaining best-in-class performance, reliability and cost efficiency.

In summary, it's been an exceptional quarter for us on the product front. We've reimagined how Dropbox works and designed an all-new foreground experience in desktop app. We're also thrilled to be partnering with Slack, Zoom and Atlassian, to bring the tools that our users love into our ecosystem. With the new Dropbox, we're evolving the way we work together, and we're excited about its potential.

I'll now turn it over to Ajay, our CFO, to walk through our financial results.

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [4]

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Thank you, Drew. Our Q2 results demonstrate our strong execution and focus on delivering a healthy balance of top line growth and profitability. Total revenue for the quarter was up 18% year-over-year to $402 million, driven by an increase in total paying users and ARPU expansion. We ended Q2 with 13.6 million paying users. Our ARPU is $120.48 in Q2, up 3% from $116.66 a year ago. The year-over-year ARPU expansion was primarily driven by strong adoption of our Premium, Professional and Advanced plans by new paying users. There was a modest sequential headwind to ARPU in Q2 driven by the timing of some large outbound deals.

I'd note that given the investments we are making in the business from both a product and go-to-market perspective, we remain confident in our ability to drive continued ARPU growth for the remainder of 2019.

Let me highlight a few ways we're executing on the strategy. First, we continue to optimize our plans and pricing to ensure we deliver the best value proposition for our users and our business. As Drew mentioned in his prepared remarks, we recently announced a number of new product features across our subscription plans. And with the additions we made to our Plus plan, we raised the price of that SKU by approximately 20%. We remain committed to generating value where we are delivering value to our users and believe that the expanded feature set across our individual plans will enable our customers to continue doing their best work with Dropbox.

Moving on to HelloSign. We've made great progress in integrating the company into our go-to-market efforts. In Q2, we began offering 24/7 support for all of HelloSign's enterprise SKU customers globally. We also began testing a series of in-app marketing campaigns designed to drive awareness of HelloSign's products capabilities and functionality to our large global installed base.

And finally, our data science team has been experimenting with a model that identifies which Dropbox customers are most likely to use HelloSign. Going forward, we believe this data will help to inform our targeting efforts and drive higher adoption of HelloSign's eSignature and workflow product suite. While it's still early, we are pleased with the progress of our collective teams and are excited about the opportunity ahead of us.

In Q2, we also had a number of customer wins and team expansions across a range of verticals, including health care, construction, education and retail. To highlight a few of these deals, we're excited to share that Partners HealthCare meaningfully increased its commitment to Dropbox in Q2. Partners is the largest private employer in the State of Massachusetts and has been a Dropbox customer since 2016 when they started with an initial deployment of 20,000 users. Since then, Partners has leveraged Dropbox Enterprise features like account capture and domain verification to manage Dropbox usage across dozens of domains. With their most recent up-sell, Partners has entered into a formal Enterprise license agreement with Dropbox, enabling continued user expansion over the next 3 years.

In addition, the City University of New York recently selected Dropbox as the collaboration platform to connect its 20-plus campuses, creating a unified home for information and making research and coursework more accessible to its faculty and students. CUNY is the nation's leading urban public university, and Dropbox's integrations with tools that the institution already uses, like blackboard and Office 365, were key factors in their decision to work with us.

Before I move on to the rest of the P&L, I want to note that unless otherwise indicated, all income statement measures that follow are non-GAAP. It excludes stock-based compensation, amortization of purchased intangibles and certain expenses related to the acquisition of HelloSign.

Our non-GAAP net income also excludes net gains on equity investments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results may be found in our earnings release, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC and in the supplemental investor materials posted on our Investor Relations website.

Moving to the P&L. Gross margin for the quarter was 76%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the second quarter of 2018. The increase in gross margin was primarily driven by continued unit cost efficiency gains with our infrastructure hardware, which was partially offset by the investments we've made in our customer support teams. We expect gross margins in the second half of the year to be roughly consistent with Q2.

Moving to operating expenses. Q2 was the first quarter in which we recognized a full period of expenses related to HelloSign. And as a reminder, we are also temporarily incurring overlapping facilities-related expenses for both our existing and new headquarters across all of our OpEx categories.

Second quarter R&D expense was $121 million or 30% of revenue compared to 27% in Q2 a year ago. The increase as a percentage of revenue was primarily driven by higher headcount and investments in new product development and testing.

S&M expense was $97 million in the second quarter or 24% of revenue compared to 23% in Q2 a year ago. The modest increase was due to higher headcount as well as a slight uptick in App Store fees.

G&A expense was $46 million or 11% of revenue, and 1 point higher than our G&A expense as a percentage of revenue in the prior year. The increase as a percentage of revenue was due the higher nonincome-based taxes and outside services spend.

Taken together, we earned $40 million and operating profit in Q2 of 2019. This translates to a 10% operating margin, which is 4 percentage points lower than Q2 of 2018. As I noted earlier, operating margin in the second quarter of 2019 included our overlapping facilities-related expenses as well as the impact from the integration of HelloSign and the associated purchase accounting write-down of its deferred revenue.

Net income for the quarter was $42 million, down from $48 million a year ago. Diluted EPS was $0.10 per share based on 419 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, down from $0.11 in Q2 a year ago.

Moving on to cash balance and cash flow. We ended Q2 with cash and short-term investments of $973 million. Cash flow from operations was $129 million in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $34 million, yielding free cash flow of $95 million or 24% of revenue. CapEx in Q2 included $29 million of spend on our new headquarters, of which $15 million was offset by tenant improvement allowances. Excluding the headquarters spend net of TIAs, free cash flow would have been $109 million or 27% of revenue.

In Q2, we also added $36 million to our capital lease lines for data center equipment. We continue to expect additions to our capital lease lines to be high-single digits as a percentage of revenue on an annual basis going forward.

Now let's turn to our guidance. For the third quarter of 2019, we expect revenue to be in the range of $421 million to $424 million, non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of 11% to 12%. This range includes nonrecurring expenses related to our new headquarters and HelloSign integration of approximately 2.5% of revenue and diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of 421 million to 426 million based on our trailing 30-day average share price.

For the full year of 2019, we are raising our revenue guidance, which was previously $1.634 billion to $1.646 billion, to $1.648 billion to $1.654 billion. I would note that similar to last quarter, this range continues to reflect the impact of currency headwinds.

We continue to expect non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of 11% to 12%, and this range includes nonrecurring expenses related to our new headquarters and HelloSign integration of approximately 2.5% of revenue. We continue to expect free cash flow to be in the range of $375 million to $385 million. This range includes the one-time spend related to the build-out of our new corporate headquarters. Excluding this spend, free cash flow would be $445 million to $465 million. We expect to generate approximately 25% of FY '19 free cash flow in the third quarter.

Finally, we expect 2019 fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of 419 million to 424 million based on our trailing 30-day average share price.

In conclusion, the investments we've made in our business from both a product and go-to-market perspective are performing well, and we believe we're well positioned to deliver a consistent year-over-year revenue growth across Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2019. We've continued to innovate and deliver more value to our users, enabling them to do their best work. I'm excited about the trajectory of our business and the opportunities we have ahead of us.

I'll now turn it back to Drew for closing remarks.

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [5]

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Thank you, Ajay. We're operating the new best of breed ecosystem where people bring the tools they want to work. It's a world that's fragmented, not just across tools but across content and teams. We see an opportunity to bring everything together and with the new Dropbox, that's what we've done. We're committed to our mission of designing more enlightened way of working, and I'm really excited about the future we're building.

I also invite you to hear more about that future at Dropbox's first Analyst Day as a public company on September 25, here in San Francisco. Details will be available soon on our IR website.

And with that, I'd like to invite Yamini, our Chief Customer Officer, to join Ajay and me for Q&A. Operator?

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John DiFucci from Jefferies.

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Howard Ma, Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Associate [2]

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This is Howard Ma in for John. Drew, so you mentioned a lot of neat features that are part of this new Dropbox experience, like you said, including like smart sync and the ability to restore deleted work, I guess, you call it quick actions. So I'm sort of wondering, what are these functionalities do you think will become really table stakes over -- in the near term because a lot of these features are things that we're increasingly used to in our mobile and our daily lives. And within the greater philosophy of spend, the R&D has been kind of inflated over time, we know it's come down. So how do you think about -- how do you manage spend in R&D versus go-to-market, for example?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [3]

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Thanks. Well, first, I'd say, probably the highlight from a product standpoint was we've launched an entirely new desktop app. So what we call the new Dropbox, which is the biggest change we've ever made to our product. And so I mean, Smart Sync has been a great feature we've had for a while. It's something that drives conversion to our pay plans and it's something that we moved into our Plus plan last quarter. We'd say the highlights are much more about how we've turned Dropbox from -- this, our metaphor from a magic folder to more of a magic workspace. And the big improvements on the product front, which I think are important to a lot of questions you're asking, are we're solving a much bigger problem for our customers because we found that people, when really all of us are suffering from information overload at work and that our -- the experiences are incredibly fragmented and we reimagine the Dropbox experience to be this -- to become a living workspace with a couple of advantages. So first is moving beyond files to any kind of cloud content. So you can have Google Docs next to your PowerPoints next to your Trello boards, really everything you need with your project and we're definitely the only company that does this in a native experience.

And second is turning Dropbox from a place where you put content when it's done to a workspace you're living out of all day. And so being able to not just see the content, the files and cloud content but be able to see other people and activity, see what's going on. We've got Slack people from the Dropbox app, being able to start a Zoom meeting. It's just a much more engaging experience, and it's still an early access, but we're really excited about it. And so I'd say, this is pretty transformative product change because what we find -- maybe where we started, it was the problem we're solving of people forgetting their thumb drives and things like that. But now, the problem we see at work is a much higher value, one which is help me organize my working life across different ecosystems and tools. And so it's actually been a great product and great work on the product front. I think that reflects some of the investment we've been making on our R&D front. We don't expect our levels proportionately to change very much.

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [4]

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Yes. And this is Ajay. I can give a little bit more color on the second part of your question. At a high level, we certainly remain committed to driving efficiency across the business, and that includes R&D. Our R&D spend in Q2, I would just remind you, include additional expenses from the integration of HelloSign as well as overlapping facilities-related expenses for both our existing and new corporate headquarters. Neither of those were included in our financials a year ago. And at a high level, we invest across 3 major categories in R&D. One is in new products experiences like the new desktop app that Drew just talked to. We also invest in a whole lot of machine learning and intelligence initiatives that we call DBXi. We also invest in our conversion engine, our self-serve conversion engine, that spend and that team sits in R&D for us. So a lot of data science initiatives and optimizations of conversion and onboarding flows. And then finally, we're also investing in infrastructure, and this is an area where we focus on driving continuous innovation and announcements that we made at our SMR and our cold storage tier are examples there.

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [5]

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Yes. Sorry a follow up on which parts will become table stakes. I'd say, we're very differentiated from other products in our space at this point. I mean, you're not going to see Google Docs support and OneDrive anytime soon or something.

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Operator [6]

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Our next question comes from Heather Bellini from Goldman Sachs.

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Daniel Peter Church, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Associate [7]

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This is Dan Church on for Heather Bellini. I was just wondering if -- a couple of quick questions for you. With respect to the price increase in May, can you give us some color on how turn has been relative to your expectations? And then with respect to ARPU growth, can you help us unpack the drivers a little bit and help us understand that the magnitude of what's the ARPU for a new customer adds relative to the installed base? And how much room is there to run? And then lastly, how do you think about your ability to raise prices over time?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [8]

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Sure. This is Ajay. I'm happy to take a stab at those questions. So we can start perhaps with some more color on the repricing and packaging of our Plus SKU in our individual plans. As a quick reminder for those on the call, we recently announced a number of new product features across our subscription plans. And with additions that we've made to our Plus plan, we raised the price of that SKU by approximately 20%. And we really want to expose more of our users to our platform's capabilities and the repackaging of our individual paid plans is a way for us to do this. The changes at a high level are being received really well with the features of our Plus plan were upgraded in June, and existing subscribers began renewing at the higher price points in July. That process will continue for the next few quarters based on the rebuild cycles of our annual subscribers. And I will say, as it pertains to the numbers in our guidance, the baseline forecast around our pricing and packaging efforts was included in our guidance last quarter and our latest outlook further incorporates positive early signals related to both conversion and churn. In fact, we saw churn improve across our business in Q2.

And then to answer the second part of your question around ARPU growth going forward. We do continue to see a wide variance between gross new ASP and ARPU. So certainly, a lot of headroom there. And this most recent pricing and packaging initiative will also increase the variance here between gross new ASP and ARPU, so we have a ways to go there. I think part of that question probably indirectly was just around the sequential ARPU that we delivered in Q2 relative to Q1. And I'll just make a quick note on that, that modest sequential headwind to ARPU that we saw in Q2 really driven by the timing of some larger outbound deals as well as some FX headwinds in the period. Net of those 2 items, we would've seen ARPU expansion in Q2. And looking ahead, just to reiterate, we are very confident in our ability to continue to expand ARPU over the course of the year. Tailwinds from the strong adoption of our premium Professional and Advanced SKU by new paying users and early success from our Plus SKU repricing and repackaging initiative. And then the final part of your question around price increases. A little early for us to comment on future initiatives though, I will say that we'll continue to evaluate and refine our pricing and packaging approach in the future just like we have in the past.

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Daniel Peter Church, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Associate [9]

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Very helpful. And then I just had a really quick follow-up. Deferred revenue growth was, I think, 11% in the quarter behind revenue growth of 18%. Anything to call out there? Is it just the mix of monthly billings versus annual?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [10]

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That's a large part of it. And as I've mentioned previously, while billings and deferred revenue are related to revenue growth, they're not consistently predictive of revenue for us. And I think that's actually pretty apparent with the revenue guidance that we issued for Q3. And just as a reminder, in a given quarter, there can be various items that can drive billings' growth higher or lower, but don't directly correlate to revenue. For example, addition to our deferred revenue balance, as you noted, are highly sensitive to the mix between monthly and annual subscribers. So small changes in mix shift can skew deferred revenue and that results in deviations between billings and revenue. FX can also impact billings in a meaningful way, as billings are more sensitive to FX movements relative to revenue. So normalized for FX billings growth in Q2 would have been about 2 percentage points higher. And I would note that going forward, we expect to see billings growth accelerate in Q3 as a result of the success we've driven with our recent growth initiatives.

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Operator [11]

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Our next question comes from Richard Davis from Canaccord.

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Richard Hugh Davis, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division - MD & Analyst [12]

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It's good to see the, whatever, forward looking metrics looking interestingly good. Quick question for you. You've partnered with like some of the really great collaboration tools, obviously, the Slacks and the Zooms and things like that, talk to us a little bit or just fill us in on like your viewpoint if you're using other tools, whether you're using teams or you're using other systems? And how do you think about that in terms of your product road map? And how you make that part of the experience for those who don't use the cool stuff yet?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [13]

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Yes. Thanks for the question. So broadly, we see Dropbox and communication tools or the other tools that are -- that we integrate with as complementary use cases. And we see from our customers, what they struggle with is the need to toggle back and forth between all these different apps or that the state of their work or a project is scattered in all these different places. And so particularly, the new Dropbox we see our role as bringing it all together. And so -- and then these deep integrations in many ways make Dropbox more useful and they make Slack more useful because you can send someone a Slack message from Dropbox, so you can start a Zoom meeting from Dropbox, and that wasn't possible before when we launched in June.

And to the second part of the question about, what about folks who haven't adopted these yet, and we see Dropbox as being potential on ramp for use of these tools, and since Dropbox Extensions launched in Q4, that's sort of our broader platform. The new Dropbox both offers more surface area to engage with those kinds of integrations and extensions and already Dropbox Extensions have driven use -- driven adoption of a lot of those partner apps. So we broadly see the experience, the new Dropbox, the new desktop app as an opportunity to drive a lot more engagement generally and drive engagement of our partner apps and solve a problem that we see no one really solving, which is how do you pull all of this together.

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Operator [14]

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Our next question comes from Mark Murphy from JPMorgan.

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Mark Ronald Murphy, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - MD [15]

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Coming off of Q2 and given that you're increasing the 2019 revenue guidance and you're increasing it by more than you did last quarter. Directionally, how is your confidence moving in your ability to trying to curb the rate of revenue deceleration by Q4 or by the end of year? And then to try to stabilize that and head into 2020 with kind of this structure for consistent compound growth, as I think you've commented on in the last couple of quarters?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [16]

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Yes. Great questions, Mark. This is Ajay. I'm happy to answer them. I would say at a high level, we continue to have a very large opportunity ahead of us, and we're doing more and more to unlock that opportunity through investments in product, in our ecosystem, conversion engine as well as through M&A. And longer term, our philosophy is consistent with what we've talked to in the past, and that's that we'll continue to be focused on delivering leading growth and profitability. We're certainly structuring the business for consistent growth and continued margin expansion at scale, you've seen us guide to that now with respect to Q3 and Q4 guidance, and we'll have more specifics to share on 2020 when we formally issue guidance on our call in Q1.

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Mark Ronald Murphy, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - MD [17]

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Just as a quick follow-up. Is it possible to quantify the sequential ARPU impact from what, I think, you described as some large outbound deals, which I'm assuming must have closed later in Q2?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [18]

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We have some large deals that close later in the quarter. We also saw some FX headwinds in the period. And what I can say is net of those 2 items, we would have driven ARPU expansion in Q2. The second thing I can say is if you look at gross new ASP, effectively ARPU for new paying users, that metric grew in the period as it has been every prior periods since we've gone public, and that continues to lead ARPU by a meaningful margin. So certainly, the headroom is there and continues to be there for us to continue to drive ARPU expansion.

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Operator [19]

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Our next question comes from Jason Ader from William Blair.

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Jason Noah Ader, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division - Partner & Co-Group Head of Technology, Media and Communications [20]

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I guess, I'm curious as to when, Drew, we might know about whether the new Dropbox is really making a big difference, moving the needle on your business, how long do you think it will take before you guys know and then we know?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [21]

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We look at a variety of indicators or inputs when answering that. So first, we're really happy to see that our launch really resonated with customers and the press and analysts, and that we're addressing a big need. And then second, we're really happy with the new Dropbox itself. We think it solves a lot of new problems. But more to your question, how will it move the needle, and now our focus has turned to driving adoption. So in June, we launched a new Dropbox, it's an early access or -- and so it's not broadly rolled out to our audience yet. You'll hear a lot more about that throughout the rest of the year. And we certainly want to roll it out to as many people as possible but we have to be thoughtful about how we do that. I mean, it's a major change to the experience, and when you make major changes to a product, you just need to be -- you need to communicate well and do that respectfully. So that's what we'll be focused on in the coming quarters and for sure, we'll be making the new Dropbox much more broadly available.

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Jason Noah Ader, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division - Partner & Co-Group Head of Technology, Media and Communications [22]

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And in terms of the adoption, are there some specific things that you can talk to? And how you're going to kind of roll this out? Is it going to be first with the team side of the business? Is that how you're thinking about?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [23]

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So we're -- I mean, we're already letting in new cohorts of users, and so people can opt into it on our website. But as far as broader rollout, I mean, we're just striking a balance, obviously, we wanted to get it out to as many people as possible. But it's really important to do that migration well because, again, whenever you massively change the experience of a product and technology like people initially are kind of taken aback by that, and so we want to help introduce the new functionality to people in the right way. Importantly, also, anyone who is using Dropbox a certain way, yesterday, will still be able to use it that way tomorrow. So for continuity, we're not taking anything away or anything or it's not a gamble on that dimension. But we just want to make sure that we do some one-time work to educate people as to what we're offering. And then it's a bit of a mindset shift where we're thinking about Dropbox, again, not just for a place for your files, but a place for all your cloud content and a living workspace that we hope is one of the first apps you open in the morning and the last ones you close at night. And what we're paying attention to right now is just that early signal from customers have been positive. So both qualitative response from early users, and then also metrics that we look at like engagement per user, and those things are all trending in the right direction. So you'll hear a lot more about that in the coming quarters.

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Jason Noah Ader, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division - Partner & Co-Group Head of Technology, Media and Communications [24]

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All right. One quick housekeeping for Ajay. What was the FX impact to revenue in the quarter? And then is there any impact to the full year guide from FX?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [25]

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Yes. Good questions. So the impact to revenue in the quarter from FX, roughly a 1.5-point headwind in the quarter, and that's about the same for our Q3 guide. So constant currency would add about 1.5% to the growth rate in Q3. And for the year, about 1%. So constant currency would add 1% to the growth rate guide for the year.

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Operator [26]

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Our next question comes from Justin Post from Bank of America.

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Sean Thomas Handrahan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - Research Analyst [27]

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This is Sean Handrahan on for Justin. Wondering a little bit if you can unpack the subscriber net adds in Q2. I know you said on enterprise deals at the end of the quarter, but are you guys seeing higher win rates on the enterprise side? And how can you compare that through to the consumer side and individual tier?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [28]

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Sure. This is Ajay. I can take the first part of your question and then I'll pass it over to Yamini. I will say, in any given quarter, we always close a number of larger deals in addition to a large volume of licenses through our self-serve growth engine, which is the primary growth engine for Dropbox, and this quarter was really consistent on that dimension in aggregate. And then Yamini will -- if you want to provide more color.

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Yamini Rangan, Dropbox, Inc. - Chief Customer Officer [29]

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Yes. I think that in the outbound side, we had another quarter of really solid performance and a number of notable wins that Ajay talked about earlier during his remarks. What is critical here is that our motion is very efficient and continues to be efficient. And this quarter, we saw wins in health care, in education, in tech and broadcasting. The land-and-expand motion is something that we are paying particular attention to and it's working well. So we won 1,000-seat enterprise deal with a European broadcasting company, which originally began as organic adoption. And then Partners HealthCare, which Ajay talked about, that started as a smaller 20,000-seat deal, and now they are expanding their usage with the Enterprise SKU and with significantly larger number of domains. So the investments we are making in scalable efficient data-driven model within outbound is working and the land-and-expansion motion is also really working well. And so we continue to see that good performance in Q2.

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Sean Thomas Handrahan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - Research Analyst [30]

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Great. And then next question, I guess, would be, I just want to reask that question on the Plus tiers churn. I think The Street is really looking for a sort of consistent net adds in the second half. I want to get a better sense of what you guys are seeing in the Plus here, and I think it makes up the majority of your subs. So anything you can give us there would be greatly appreciated.

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [31]

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Yes. I'll just reiterate -- this is Ajay, a couple of points there. One, we did include a baseline forecast around what we expected from our pricing-and-packaging efforts last quarter in our guidance. Our latest outlook incorporates some really positive early signals related to both conversion and churn that we're seeing. And the second thing I will say, we provided some color on churn back when we went public last year. Directionally, churn has been very stable for us since then. It did, in fact, improve across the business in Q2, so those rates have improved.

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Sean Thomas Handrahan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - Research Analyst [32]

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Okay. One last one if I can. I just want to get a bit of a signal on the enterprise side. It seems like there's a little more closure this quarter on what the pricing looks like relative to the other tiers and teams, Advanced and Standard, on the per-subscriber basis?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [33]

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So it's negotiated pricing for our Enterprise SKU, and so it depends on the customer and the kind of deployment that we're targeting with that customer. We are very disciplined about how we manage margins with these larger deals. And so my team works closely with Yamini's team. I'm not sure, Yamini, if you want to add any additional color?

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Yamini Rangan, Dropbox, Inc. - Chief Customer Officer [34]

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Yes, I think on the Enterprise side, like we mentioned, there are a number of verticals where we're seeing momentum. We talked about CUNY. This is, again, a vertical in terms of education where we are seeing good momentum. We've had a number of use cases for faculty staff, and we're seeing adoption on the student side as well. And University of Sydney, CUNY, University of Florida, these are all examples where education vertical is actually adopting Dropbox. And again, in terms of ARPU, it is pretty similar to what Ajay said, it is negotiated, it really depends on the deal. But overall, it is reflected in the comments that Ajay made in terms of ARPU growth in the future.

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Operator [35]

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Our next question comes from Karl Keirstead from Deutsche Bank.

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Karl Emil Keirstead, Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst [36]

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Question for Ajay. Ajay, back on the Plus price change, could you give us a little bit of color, maybe you'll elaborate at the Analyst Day, but what is the conversion timing look like over the next 12 months? Maybe just in broad strokes, what's the mix of conversion that's likely in the second half of '19 versus first half of '20? I guess, the context here maybe you could figure out. I'm just trying to understand if we do see a change in churn or ARPU as a result of the Plus price change, just trying to be a little bit more specific as to when we would see that?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [37]

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Yes. It's a good question, and we can certainly provide more detail at the Analyst Day in September. But at a high level, the features of our Plus plan were upgraded in June. And so conversions -- new conversion to the Plus plan were converting at the higher price point beginning in June. Existing subscribers began renewing at the higher price point in July, so last month. And that process will continue for a 12-month period for the next few quarters, and that's based on the rebill cycles of our annual subscribers. And we can provide a little bit more color on the ins and outs and how that flows into the numbers at our Analyst Day.

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Karl Emil Keirstead, Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst [38]

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Got it. And then maybe, secondly, Ajay, just on the margins, I remember a couple of quarters ago when you took the margin arc for this calendar year. It sounded like first half, a little bit weaker; second half, stronger. So the 3Q guide of 11 to 12 is a little bit better? Then you put up, but not a big jump, it looks like it's a little bit more 4Q skewed. Is there anything occurring in 3Q that might have been weighing operating margins a little bit versus the guide that you were thinking about a quarter or 2 ago? Or quite similar?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [39]

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Quite consistent, similar just from the internal perspective here and what we've been driving towards. I can say at a high level, we're absolutely focused on balancing growth and profitability and remain committed to driving margin expansion. As it relates to your question specifically in Q3, we are reserving some flexibility to spend on product adoption and marketing initiatives related to the new desktop application that Drew was talking to, and that includes our upcoming user conference in late September. But I would note that for fiscal '19, the midpoint of our operating margin guidance would be about 14%, that's net of nonrecurring facilities and HelloSign-related expenses, so that's up about 2 points year-over-year. And our implied guide for Q4, as you noted, signals that we plan to drive pretty meaningful sequential and year-over-year margin expansion as we exit the year, and that's consistent with what we previously indicated.

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Operator [40]

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Our next question comes from Rishi Jaluria from D.A. Davidson.

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Hannah Rudoff, D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division - Research Analyst [41]

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This is Hannah on for Rishi. First off, I was wondering if you could talk about how the communities’ algorithm performed in the quarter? And if you could quantitatively speak to the success you've seen with up-selling to groups you've identified?

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Yamini Rangan, Dropbox, Inc. - Chief Customer Officer [42]

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Yes. Thanks a lot for the question. Yes, for folks that don't know, we use communities algorithm. We use data science, in general, to drive adoption as well as identify the propensity of our users to buy. So typically, the motion works, with landing 50 to 100-seat deals. And when we look at those 50 to 100-seat deals, it is driven a little bit by the conversion algorithms as well as the algorithms that identify the community. So it continues to do well. That is how we have such a scalable, efficient and data-driven outbound sales motion.

Now from there, what we really are focused on is driving broader adoption within those teams. And that's the success that you've seen in Q2 with Partners HealthCare, with other outbound wins that we mentioned. So it starts with the communities type algorithm, there are multiple of those algorithms that we used to look at the propensity of our teams. And then we leverage our outbound sales people to go target those, and then we continue to drive adoption through engagement. So that overall motion, the overall system of different algorithms are working well, and we are pleased with the progress.

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Hannah Rudoff, D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division - Research Analyst [43]

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Okay. That's good to hear. And then could you talk about the effect you've seen from the 3-device limit on Dropbox Basic? And if you've seen a lot of conversions from free to paid in the quarter?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [44]

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Sure. This is Ajay. So we don't break down the impact of a specific initiative. Certainly, the 3-device limit initiative that we launched earlier this year is a good example of how we drive investment in product-driven conversion and our up-sell engine through ML and data science. And it certainly is a driver of conversions for us, but we manage our growth initiatives as a basket and as a pipeline. So that's one of many initiatives that we've launched over the course of the year that's having an impact on the business.

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Operator [45]

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Our next question comes from Chris Eberle from Nomura Instinet.

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Christopher George Eberle, Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division - Research Analyst [46]

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Can you give us some idea of what the implied ARPU impact from the price increases for Q3 and Q4?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [47]

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Yes. This is Ajay. So we'll have some more color we can share as part of our Analyst Day in September. I can say at a high level, we do expect the tailwind to ARPU from the Plus repackaging and pricing initiative. The primary driver of ARPU expansion for us over the last few quarters has been higher adoption of our premium plans by new paying users. So folks that are converting to our Professional plan and folks that are converting to our Advanced team SKU at higher and higher rates, and that tailwind is going to continue based on the visibility that we have for the remainder of 2019 as well. So you'll see both of those factors driving some pretty significant ARPU expansion for us across Q3 and Q4.

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Christopher George Eberle, Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division - Research Analyst [48]

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Got it. Just one other one. When you guys think about your balanced growth throughout the year or even into next year, I think there's been a pretty big disconnect between the number of net paying subscribers and where The Street is at. I think The Street has come down to 200,000 to 250,000, and you guys consistently keep putting up at 400,000 number. How should we think about the balance between those two? Is there a -- I mean, is there just a miscommunication between what balance is here? Or is there something more to that?

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Ajay V. Vashee, Dropbox, Inc. - CFO [49]

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They're both important. This is Ajay. They're both important leverage to us, and you'll see us leaning to both in varying degrees based on the initiatives that we're shipping at a given quarter and how we're managing those initiatives. There has been a fair amount of consistency in the net new paying user adds that we've driven over the last few quarters. That's certainly not been something that's been intentional, it's been a result of the basket of growth initiatives that we funded and we've launched. And there's been some variability in the expansion rate of ARPU as well, and that really depends on what we're -- what's in the pipeline and what we're graduating out of the experiment pipeline into a live initiative. And so I think you'll see both levers be important for us going forward. You'll see us execute against both, but you'll see that rate of expansion vary quarter-to-quarter based on what's happening with the business.

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Operator [50]

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Our next question comes from Mark Mahaney from RBC Capital Markets.

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Zachary Aaron Schwartzman, RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division - Analyst [51]

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It's Zach Schwartzman on for Mark. Drew, can you talk a little about the difference between rolling out an improved product towards the consumer or less tech-savvy market versus, I guess, a developer market? Part of the reason why Dropbox has become so successful today was the ease-of-use for the everyday individual original Dropbox. Do you think this change, product change, could have as much natural virality as the original Dropbox? And what type of headwinds do you foresee? And do you think of ways to proactively affect engagement of this new UX?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [52]

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Thanks, Mark. Well, I'd say first, we're focused on the end-user, and I make that distinction because we have -- we certainly want consumer-type ease of use that is certainly what has gotten us here. But importantly, we're not focused, per se, on consumer use cases compared to use cases of folks that work and folks collaborating in teams. Like that certainly are a sweet spot, that's worth 80% of our subs are using Dropbox at work. And we think the best experience is when you're using Dropbox in the team, when you're using it at work. So -- and we made good progress in terms of that strategic focus over the last few years, which reflect in all the numbers.

And so the new Dropbox is kind of a product we would have built if we had been focused on this use case in the beginning. So historically, we've been kind of, Dropbox is operated behind the scenes, it's been sort of in the background, in the file system or you're just navigating folders on your desktop. Whereas with the new Dropbox, you have a dedicated app. Again, as I said, it's much more of a workspace instead of just a static list of files. You see people, and you see comments, and you see activity and all the things you do expect in a real-time collaborative app, we think is a very different, kind of generationally different experience from what other folks have. So -- and then as you're alluding to, this is a new foundation for engagement, for virality, for all the kinds of metrics that we want to drive in and for conversion because now that we have this foreground surface that we entirely control as opposed to being limited by the operating system, it's a lot easier for us to drive adoption to things like Paper or HelloSign, when we can have a button that says send out for signature within Dropbox natively whereas we couldn't really do that in the operating system.

And so the ability to drive adoption, generally, of the new Dropbox and especially encourage viral adoption of the new Dropbox, we think there's a much more powerful levers there over time. We think there's much more powerful levers to drive distribution of apps like ours and our partners' apps, and we think there's a much better surface to drive conversion. So when you're actually sharing something, be able to highlight in line, the benefits of having a paid plan. We think the new Dropbox has the potential to drive monetization even though we're rolling it out, it's not something you're going to have to exclusively pay for. Our Basic users will be able to use the new Dropbox as well. So I mean, all of what I described will take place over time, but it's a new foundation we're really excited about.

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Operator [53]

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We have time for one last question. The last question comes from Pat Walravens from JMP Securities.

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Patrick D. Walravens, JMP Securities LLC, Research Division - MD, Director of Technology Research and Senior Research Analyst [54]

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Drew, maybe this is for you, but what is the ideal customer look like for the new Dropbox? I mean, they're at work and they work in teams, but that's a lot of people. So what do you think is the best profile customers for you guys for this new product?

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Andrew W. Houston, Dropbox, Inc. - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman [55]

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Sure. I mean, I think it's the -- it's in many ways the same sweet spot as we've had in the past. And in many ways, we're also following customer demand. And then a lot of the ideas we had for the new Dropbox came from observing how our customers' work and the pain points they experience in this new environment, which is on the one hand, there's all these new tools, so the experience is a lot better on some dimensions. But there's also this new problem, which are things are a lot more cluttered and fragmented and there's just information overload and distraction that people are dealing with.

So we have a different philosophy in terms of -- we see our role as organizing your working life across all these different tools and ecosystems, and we think that's something that every information worker needs. More granularly, we focus on both you personally as an information worker and your personal productivity. We also focus on the manager or the owner of a team. So if you're -- if you have a group of 10 people you're working with, we certainly think about that. And importantly, even in a 10,000-person company, that it's composed of a lot of little workgroups and units, and even executives or a CEO still manages a small team and is an information worker themselves.

So we think that from the -- so we think that our sweet spot remains the same. I mean, really targeting information workers generally. The value prop to the end-user might really be about collaboration and personal productivity for a team manager. It might be more alignment and how do you get your team on the same page and executing well. And for an executive, a value prop might be more like how do I get a better return on my cognitive capital. How do I free up my -- from my employees from having to do all this busy work or toggle between those different apps and help them focus so -- and there's a whole bunch of stuff on the IT side as well to help people wrangle all the complexity that's happening on the back end, too. So -- but we think all of this is the beginning of really addressing so much bigger problems in collaboration, some new problems in collaboration that we didn't see our industry focused on.

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Darren Yip, Dropbox, Inc. - Head of IR [56]

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All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we really appreciate your support and look forward to speaking with you at our Analyst Day in September.

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Operator [57]

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Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending today's conference. This concludes our call. You may all disconnect. Good day.