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Edited Transcript of FOOD.TO earnings conference call or presentation 4-Apr-19 12:00pm GMT

Q2 2019 Goodfood Market Corp Earnings Call

Apr 18, 2019 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Goodfood Market Corp earnings conference call or presentation Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 12:00:00pm GMT

TEXT version of Transcript

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Corporate Participants

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* Jonathan Ferrari

Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman

* Neil Cuggy

Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director

* Philippe St-Cyr Adam

Goodfood Market Corp. - CFO

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Conference Call Participants

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* Frederic Tremblay

Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division - Analyst

* Martin Landry

GMP Securities L.P., Research Division - Director and Equity Research Analyst

* Robert Gibson

PI Financial Corp., Research Division - MD, Head of Research & Consumer Products Analyst

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Presentation

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Operator [1]

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Welcome to the Goodfood Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, April 4, 2019, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Ferrari, you may proceed.

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Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman [2]

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(foreign language) Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this call for Goodfood Market Corp, in which we'll present the financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2019 that ended on February 28, 2019. I'm Jonathan Ferrari, the Chief Executive Officer of Goodfood. I'm pleased to be joined on the call today by Philippe Adam, our Chief Financial Officer; and by Neil Cuggy, Goodfood's President and Chief Operating Officer.

Prior to moving on, I'd like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements about Goodfood's current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or other future events or developments. As such, I would ask participants to take a moment to read the disclaimer on forward-looking statements on the first slide of the presentation before we begin.

Slide 2 outlines our corporate highlights for the second quarter of fiscal 2019. Q2 2019 proved to be an excellent quarter. We achieved record results on a number of key metrics. As shown, strong growth continued during the quarter. We achieved year-over-year subscriber growth of 161%, resulting in a subscriber base of 159,000 at February 28, 2019. The rate of subscriber additions in our core geographic markets continued to increase following the record levels achieved in Q1. This momentum resulted from strong growth in Western Canada and the launch of new meal plans and was further enhanced by continuous growth in eastern regions as well as market leading brand recognition across Canada.

Gross merchandise sales also increased significantly, increasing by 25% over the first quarter and 147% year-over-year to reach $46.5 million.

The strong growth momentum of the second quarter driven by net subscriber additions, new meal plans and meal solutions allowed us to exceed the $200 million mark in gross merchandise sales run rate for the first time ever.

Our gross margin and adjusted gross margin also improved significantly year-over-year. The company's adjusted gross margin improved by 600 basis points to 37.8%, another record largely due to our increasing scale and investments in operational efficiencies.

Recall that our strategy is to continue to invest in growth, while this delays profitability in the short term, we believe it maximizes shareholder value in the longer term. We recognize that we have a tremendous opportunity to build our market position and benefit increasingly from economies of scale.

In the first 6 months of fiscal 2019, we generated $1.4 million in cash flow from operations. During that same period, we invested $3.4 million in capital expenditures, primarily to fund the Eastern Canada facility expansion and investments in our automations.

Finally, on February 22, we completed a public offering and issued common shares for gross proceeds of $21.1 million. This equity issuance represents the largest offering since the company went public. The initiative increased capital raised on public markets to more than $50 million. As a result, we finished the quarter with a strong cash position of $46.3 million.

Slide 3 shows Goodfood's strong and accelerating growth quarter-over-quarter for the past 7 quarters. By the close of the second quarter of 2019, as I mentioned a moment ago, our active subscriber base grew to 159,000. The growth represented an addition of 33,000 net new subscribers, more than doubling the number of new subscribers from the corresponding period of last year. Quarterly revenue has also grown sharply since Q4 2017. Revenue increased to a record $36.6 million for the quarter, more than double the revenue for the corresponding period in 2018 and 24% higher than in the first quarter. This increase has resulted in revenue exceeding $110 million for the last 12 months, surpassing the $100 million mark for the very first time.

Growth is extremely robust, not only for Goodfood, but the industry as a whole. We are still in the very early days of building our direct-to-consumer meal solutions in Canada, and we believe that during the new -- during the next few years, the industry can reach the $9 billion mark in Canada alone. In fact, our current customer base represents approximately 1% of the 15 million Canadian households.

Moreover, with the direct-to-consumer home meal solutions industry still in its infancy, there are enormous amounts of opportunities available not only to gain market share, but also to continue to gain a strong competitive advantage.

Turning to Slide 4, our gross merchandise sales increased 25% to a record $46.5 million for the second quarter compared to Q1 2019 and on the last 12 months' basis reached $135.6 million.

The GMS run rate surpassed the $200 million mark and reached $222 million at the end of the second quarter, an all-time high, more than doubling gross merchandise sales achieved at the end of fiscal 2018. As a reminder, gross merchandise sales reflects the total value of merchandise sold by the company before taking into account incentives and credits.

Turning to Slide 5, we are continuing to focus on growth and on improving member experience. Our objective is to expand our product categories to capture further growth opportunities. Since the beginning of the year, we have been actively working towards adding additional meal options as well as meals with different levels of engagement from ready to cook to ready to eat.

A few weeks ago, we launched our breakfast smoothies across Canada, our first product line in our breakfast solutions. In the first 6 months, we developed 10 flavors and are in the process of further developments. It is still early days, but we already see encouraging signs of success despite limited marketing investments. In order to grow our breakfast product line, we recently secured the lease of a new 20,000 square foot facility in Montréal, which will be used exclusively for our breakfast meal solutions and will add approximately $100 million of production capacity.

In addition, our Clean 15 meal plan has exceeded expectations and continues to increase in popularity. We're seeing a rising adoption and order rate from our members. This new plan was featured during the quarter on CTV News, Global TV, the National Post and The Globe and Mail. Our partnership with Canadian, gold medal, mogul skier, Mikael Kingsbury, has given the plan a compelling profile. We're also in our pilot testing stage for our ready-to-eat meal solutions in Eastern Canada. Furthermore, in early February, we launched the first version of our mobile app on the App Store and Android store. Thousands of our members are already using it on a regular basis and we anticipate a continuing growth curve.

I will turn now to capacity expansion and production efficiency. Our Eastern Canadian facility expansion is progressing well. We have, in fact, started operations in a large part of the new space. The project is on track for completion, under budget and ahead of schedule by the end of Q3. As a reminder, the expansion will double our production and sales capacity in Eastern Canada and will allow us to better serve the needs of our fast-growing member base as we continue to add new meal solutions and expand our product offering. In terms of dollars, the sales capacity will increase from about $200 million to approximately $400 million once completed.

In Western Canada, our results continue to be above expectations. We're now the #1 choice for Canadians' home meal solutions in both Alberta and British Columbia. Subscriber growth is strong and we are seeing increasing order rates from our members. As a result, we have decided to expand our Calgary facility with the doubling of the refrigerated section. The expansion should be completed by the end of fiscal 2019, and we'll add increased sales capacity from roughly $100 million to $200 million.

Finally, we're making good progress on our plan to build a world-class automation ecosystem in all of our facilities. Currently, our Eastern Canada facility is approximately 50% automated, while we have only just begun the investment in the automation of our Western Canada facility and breakfast facility. The automation ecosystem will further Goodfood's position as the lowest cost supplier in the home meal solutions industry and allow us to provide our members with more value than anyone else while delivering industry-leading margins to our shareholders.

On that note, I will turn the presentation over to Philippe.

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Philippe St-Cyr Adam, Goodfood Market Corp. - CFO [3]

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Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6. I will now present the key financial highlights for Q2 2019.

Goodfood continues to turn out strong triple-digit growth in active subscribers, revenue and gross profit on a year-over-year basis. We grew our active subscriber base to 159,000 at the end of February 2019, an increase of 161% from February 2018. Revenue growth was up over $36 million at the close of Q2 2019, an increase of 133% from the corresponding period in 2018, while gross profit increased 171% to $7.5 million.

Slide 7 compares our gross margin and adjusted gross margin. As you can see, our gross margin continues to improve and increase by 290 basis points compared to Q2 2018. Our adjusted gross margin reached a record 37.8%, an increase of 600 basis points over the same quarter in 2018. These improvements reflect continued efficiencies generated in our Eastern and Western Canada operations as well as the progress we've made on labor, shipping and packaging costs from economies of scale and increased buying power.

Our margin improvements were mitigated by the harsh winter conditions we've experienced. Those condition presented challenges on logistics and shipping, and we also incurred additional labor cost related to the holiday season.

With that, I'd like to move on to Slide 8 and focus on Goodfood's quarter-over-quarter results. During Q2 2019, Goodfood added 33,000 net new subscribers, an increase of 26% from November 30, 2018. Our revenue grew sharply by 24% in the last quarter to $36.6 million from the $29.6 million of revenue in Q1 2019. As Jonathan mentioned, our revenue over the last 12 months exceeded $110 million. We generated gross merchandise sales of $46.5 million in the second quarter, an increase of nearly 25% from the $37.1 million in GMS recorded in Q1 2019. These results were excellent despite a significant seasonal slowdown in December in terms of order rate and additional new subscribers due to the holiday season.

The next slide shows our adjusted EBITDA margin, which decreased slightly to negative 15% from negative 14.4% in Q2 2018.

Net loss for the second quarter of fiscal 2019 was $6.6 million compared to $2.4 million in Q2 of 2018.

The decrease in adjusted EBITDA margin and the increase in net loss were result of higher selling general and administrative expenses and depreciation partially offset by higher gross profit. It is important to note that although we've invested in our automation ecosystem in the quarter, these investments are not yet reflected in our result as a big portion of the expenses represent deposits on equipment not yet received. A portion of the equipment should be installed and operational during Q3, after which we should start to see the benefits in our margins over time.

As we mentioned previously, we are successfully executing our strategy, which delays short-term earnings in order to invest in market share leadership, scale and density. We believe that these investments will maximize longer-term shareholder value by allowing us to deliver greater value to our members than anyone else while attaining high returns on invested capital.

Turning to Slide 10 for liquidity and capital resources. In Q2 2019, we used $0.4 million in cash flow from operating activities as the company continued to invest in its growth and the launch of other meal solutions. However, for the first 6 months of the year, cash provided by operating activities amounted to positive $1.4 million. We also invested $2.8 million in capital expenditures, primarily related to continued investments in automation ecosystem and capacity expansion. In addition, we completed a public offering for gross proceeds of about $21 million. As a result, our cash position increased to $46.3 million at the end of the second quarter. Recall that we also secured a $13.5 million nondilutive debt financing toward the end of the first quarter of which $5 million is still undrawn. And in Q3 2018, we raised $10 million in gross proceeds from a public offering of 4 million common shares. The latest equity issuance represents the largest offering since the company went public and brings the capital raise on public markets to more than $50 million. As such, we are in a very solid financial position to continue to execute on our business plan.

Turning to Slide 11, I'd like to make a few comments on the typical seasonality of our business, which should help in providing a better understanding of both the market we are serving and our performance within it. Generally speaking, our first quarter is the strongest with the critical back-to-school period. The second quarter is typically strong with January and February being traditionally strong demand months, however, second quarter sales are affected by a slowdown in December, due to the holiday season.

The third quarter is somewhat strong, but it is normally impacted by spring breaks in March across Canada and the start of nice weather in May.

Finally, our fourth quarter is slow, given vacation time and nicer weather, which changes and influences consumer behavior. As such, Q4 is characterized by lower order rates, lower marketing expenses and net new active subscriber additions. We are now entering the second half of the year, which is typically slower than the first half. Please keep this in mind for modeling purpose.

That wraps up our financial highlights for the second quarter of 2019 and concludes our prepared remarks for today. We thank you, all, for joining us on this call.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Martin Landry of GMP Securities.

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Martin Landry, GMP Securities L.P., Research Division - Director and Equity Research Analyst [2]

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The first question I have is on your new breakfast facility. You're saying it's going to be a 20,000 square foot facility, it's going to be a new facility not in your existing space. And I'm wondering, was there a possibility for you to carry your or execute breakfast solutions in the existing facility you had in Montréal. Or -- and what's the thinking to shift all of that in a separate dedicated facility?

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Neil Cuggy, Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director [3]

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Yes, thanks. This is Neil, I'll take that one. So up until now after at least a couple more months we're going to be continuing to produce in the same facility. We actually produce everything in our (inaudible) Saint Laurent facility and ship that across the country currently. But in order to really let the program flourish and grow, we wanted to build it out in a separate production space and it also allow us to invest in automation. Some of the automation that we've identified for our breakfast program is pretty substantial in size, and we didn't want that to eat into the dinner side of the business in terms capacity.

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Martin Landry, GMP Securities L.P., Research Division - Director and Equity Research Analyst [4]

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Okay. And in terms of breakeven points and stuff like that for your breakfast offering, what percentage of your capacity utilization can you reach a breakeven point?

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Philippe St-Cyr Adam, Goodfood Market Corp. - CFO [5]

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(inaudible) Philippe. We don't provide any guidance on breakeven point on breakfast.

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Neil Cuggy, Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director [6]

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Another thing I will add Marty is that it's a relatively low OpEx for the facility. You can kind of do the rough math in terms of rental rates and size. And because it's being currently sold as an add-on subscription to our base subscription, it's pretty accretive from an EBITDA basis.

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Martin Landry, GMP Securities L.P., Research Division - Director and Equity Research Analyst [7]

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Okay. So just to wrap up in terms of your capacity. You said that now Calgary is going to be able to support roughly $200 million in revenues, your existing Montréal facility, I think it's around $400 million and then your new breakfast footprint will be $100 million, so this -- so that would amount to -- all your facilities this fall being able to support close to $700 million in revenues? Is that correct?

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Neil Cuggy, Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director [8]

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Yes, exactly. And in order -- just to clarify on the breakfast, in order to hit that $100 million, there's a little bit of automation required to maximize the square-footage utilization. So we found a space that was refrigerated, we're going to put a little bit of CapEx into it, invest in automation and that should bring us up probably in the early 20 -- fiscal 2020 up to that $700 million total.

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Operator [9]

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Your next question come from Frederic Tremblay of Desjardins Capital.

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Frederic Tremblay, Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division - Analyst [10]

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Jonathan you -- on the last conference call you indicated that the business had grown more quickly than you were planning in part because of the unit economics were more favorable than expected in Q1, now Q2 was another strong quarter of growth. So can you comment on what you saw in terms of those unit economics in Q2 and customer acquisition cost trends, and perhaps, how that's evolving so far in Q3?

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Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman [11]

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Yes, I would say the -- this quarter came in approximately within our expectation, so what we saw in December was definitely a slowdown in terms of net new sign-ups and orders. And so of course when orders -- when your order rate decline, it takes a bit longer for the payback to happen on a new customer, so as expected, we're up for the customer signing up in December. January was incredibly strong. I would say most of the growth that happened during the quarter happened in January, which created a significant demand on the operations. And then February came in pretty much in line with what we were expecting. So if I can kind of characterize, we had a stronger than expected January and December was slow as expected and the unit economics were in line with what we were expecting for the period.

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Frederic Tremblay, Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division - Analyst [12]

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Okay. And then on the breakfast smoothies. Based on what you've seen in the testing phase and so far since the full launch, can you help us understand or how should we think about the potential impact of that product category on your average box size? Do you have a range in mind or some sort of indication of what the impact of that add-on product could be on your average order size?

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Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman [13]

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We would expect that there will definitely be a positive impact. One thing we should mention is, despite the fact that the breakfast smoothies will be produced in a separate facility as of kind of the beginning of fiscal 2020. We can still benefit from the economies of scale in terms of delivery density from the add-on product. Right now we're seeing our customers interacting with our breakfast product in 2 ways. There's -- it's sometimes being added on to an existing dinner order, but we're also seeing people who might skip a week of dinner and order a box of smoothies. And so I think the best way to think about the impact of this breakfast product on the overall economics of Goodfood is looking at revenue per subscriber per quarter as well as gross margin per subscriber per quarter, and we would expect to see an increase in those metrics as we move forward with increasing the penetration and the opt-in rate for our smoothies. And the last thing I'll add is, of course, we're -- the reason why we're preparing to build out $100 million of capacity for this new product in our portfolio is that we are very happy with the economics that we're seeing, the opt-in rate, the margin profiles and we believe that the return on investment is going to be very high in this space.

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Frederic Tremblay, Desjardins Securities Inc., Research Division - Analyst [14]

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Okay, and last question for me. Just on the ready-to-eat testing. As of the last update, you were testing different formats, different price points, any updates on the progress on those fronts?

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Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman [15]

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Yes, we're still in the phase of what we would call product development, so we're not currently looking to scale the product offering currently and we're not building out capacity internally right now. So we're working with external suppliers still to develop this product. We are currently building out our framework with active feedback from our customers to define really what makes a delicious, nutritious, amazing ready-to-eat experience. And we're narrowing in to the level of detail, for example, of the cooking time of different ingredients within the dish and how the dish needs to perform after being reheated in a microwave or in an oven. So without going into too much more detail, we're really in the product development phase right now. We have some encouraging feedback from our customers in terms of the progress that we've made to date. And when we feel that we have a really good sense of the margin profile, the rating or the Net Promoter Score that we get from this new product line, we will start moving towards scaling the product line. And when we hit that stage it will be because we're really comfortable with where we're at in the product development and we're ready to press on the gas.

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Operator [16]

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(Operator Instructions) Your next question come from Bob Gibson of PI Financial.

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Robert Gibson, PI Financial Corp., Research Division - MD, Head of Research & Consumer Products Analyst [17]

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Let's continue on the prepared meal section. So what's your thinking as far as once you're ready to step on the gas, would you need a brand-new facility in Montréal? Maybe another one in Western Canada? What's your thoughts?

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Neil Cuggy, Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director [18]

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Yes, Bob, this is Neil. We are a little early to make that call in terms of the scale and the in-house versus external. What we've seen is good interaction with the current supplier base that we're using. But as Jonathan just mentioned, still some perfecting to do into the kind of obsessive details that we like to get into. So right now it's a little early to make the call, but eventually as we start to think about building this into hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue, there will be a combination of internal facilities and external facilities most likely.

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Robert Gibson, PI Financial Corp., Research Division - MD, Head of Research & Consumer Products Analyst [19]

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Okay. And if I could just jump in with a second question. In terms of admin personnel, are you pretty much a full up or how should I think about this?

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Neil Cuggy, Goodfood Market Corp. - President, COO & Director [20]

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Well, as you can imagine when we're adding over $100 million of revenue in 6 months, we're always playing a little bit of catch-up. We do have quite a bit of operational leverage in our G&A, but we'll be continuing to add top-level talent across the business. I don't know Phil, if you have any additional modeling comments for [this thing]?

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Philippe St-Cyr Adam, Goodfood Market Corp. - CFO [21]

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Yes, Bob, it's Philippe. Especially as we launch new product, a new division, we'll continue to staff up the G&A piece and support the growth.

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Operator [22]

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There are no further questions at this time. I will now return the call to our presenters.

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Jonathan Ferrari, Goodfood Market Corp. - CEO & Chairman [23]

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Thank you, all, for joining us today for Goodfood's Q2 2019 Financial Results Conference Call. (foreign language).

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Operator [24]

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This concludes today's conference call, you may now disconnect.