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Edited Transcript of GALP.LS earnings conference call or presentation 22-Feb-21 2:30pm GMT

·66 min read

Q4 2020 Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Lisbon Feb 22, 2021 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Galp Energia SGPS SA earnings conference call or presentation Monday, February 22, 2021 at 2:30:00pm GMT TEXT version of Transcript ================================================================================ Corporate Participants ================================================================================ * Andrew R. D. Brown Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO * Filipe Crisóstomo Silva Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director * Otelo Ruivo Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Head of IR * Thore Ernst Kristiansen Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director ================================================================================ Conference Call Participants ================================================================================ * Alessandro Pozzi Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst * Anish Kapadia Palissy Advisors Limited - Director & Head of Energy * Biraj Borkhataria RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst * Jason S. Kenney Grupo Santander, Research Division - Head of European Oil and Gas Equity Research * Jonathon Rigby UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - MD, Head of Oil Research and Lead Analyst * Jorge Guimarães JB Capital Markets, Sociedad de Valores, S.A., Research Division - Analyst * Joshua Eliot Dweck Stone Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Analyst * Matthew Peter Charles Lofting JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - VP * Mehdi Ennebati BofA Securities, Research Division - Research Analyst * Michael James Alsford Citigroup Inc., Research Division - Director * Oswald C. Clint Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division - Senior Research Analyst * Raphaël DuBois Societe Generale Cross Asset Research - Equity Analyst * Sasikanth Chilukuru Morgan Stanley, Research Division - Research Associate * Thomas Yoichi Adolff Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research and Director ================================================================================ Presentation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Galp Full Year 2020 Results and 2021 outlook call. (Operator Instructions) I will now pass the floor to Mr. Otelo Ruivo, Head of Investor Relations. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Otelo Ruivo, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Head of IR [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good morning or good afternoon to you all, and welcome to Galp's Fourth Quarter and Year 2020 Results Presentation. I would like to thank you for joining us today, and wish that you are all in good health. We will start with a brief introduction from our recently appointed CEO, Andy Brown, followed by Filipe, which will take us to the quarterly and full year results and provide you with the outlook for this year, where Thore will participate as well. We will then be happy to take your questions. Please follow the operator's instructions at the end of the presentation, if you want to participate in the Q&A session, which we will be audio only. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that we'll be making forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, and actual results may differ to factors included in the cautionary statement available in the beginning of the presentation, which we advise you to read. You can find the presentation and all remaining results materials at our website. So without further ado, I will hand over to Andy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you very much, Otelo, and good day to all of you. I'm thrilled to be here on my first results announcement for Galp. As you all know, I was on the Executive Committee of Shell for 7 years. And since I left in the middle of 2019, I've been in various advisory and Board positions. I had a career that is not afraid of taking on business transformations and adapting to new trends but also with a sharp focus on efficient execution. As the Upstream Director of Shell, I was responsible to integrate the BG assets into the company, and that obviously meant integrating the deepwater assets in pre-salt in Brazil. In Shell also, I was involved in many gas and LNG projects, bringing cleaner fuels into the company. So I'm not a stranger to the Galp's upstream portfolio. But also in Shell, but in my portfolio work since I've worked on introducing low-carbon technologies into the energy system. And so I'm really enthusiastic about the opportunity that provides to Galp going forward. I've only been enrolled for 2 weeks, but I've really got a good impression of the company. And as I thought, it has an enviable position in the upstream and integrated gas. The deepwater assets in Brazil and the Mozambique integrated gas assets are truly world-class. But I also found that this company has a great brand. It has a solid refining position and a commercial value chain in gas, fuels, electricity that goes from end to end in Iberia. But Galp is also of a size that can be agile and can move quicker from -- compared to some of its largest -- larger competitors. Well, a demonstration of this is what Galp has already done in Iberia. It's now the leading solar player in Iberia in just over a year and has a platform for further growth and diversification. What I've also found is really talented people, professional people, focused people. But my job will be to focus them further to accelerate our delivery, to make sure that we keep financial discipline, to create a profitable, efficient, clean, integrated energy company. But I also find a company that is doing very well in ESG and is being ranked in Europe in its sector at the top. So in short, I'm just really excited with what I've found and all credit to the team on the ground, but also to Carlos for leading the company to this point and all his predecessors. Going forward, we do need to clarify our strategic direction, with new [will] to create a strong and sustainable business. We have a strong portfolio. We know our strengths but we should not be afraid of making difficult decisions. We need to create a company that is dynamic and able to seize opportunities. I look forward to demonstrate the progress we're making periodically, starting with the Capital Markets Day 2021. But I want to leave you with no doubt. We will be value-driven. We'll be driven to sustain our growth. We want to not only be able to thrive through the energy transition but to be a great investment opportunity for our shareholders. However, despite this great excitement for the future, the short term does look challenging. The pandemic is not fully under control, and we need to show prudence in our investments. So going forward, we will still be focused on a disciplined capital investment and prioritize where we will spend money. However, I believe the Bacalhau project, we should proceed in the first half of this year to FID. It is a truly exceptional project from an economic and environmental standpoint against the vast majority of the comparable projects so it makes a lot of sense to go forward. But also it makes sense to go forward with the renewables portfolio that we have built and to grow and deliver that funnel but we maintain our investment guidance. Over 2020 and 2021, we'll stay in the band of EUR 0.5 billion to EUR 0.7 billion net CapEx, net of divestment that is, but that does include the Bacalhau project. Because we're going to be prudent in CapEx, we believe also we should be prudent in shareholder remuneration. So related to the 2020 dividend, we're proposing -- the Board has proposed EUR 0.35 per share, that will be submitted to the AGM for approval. This is a 50% cut from our pre-COVID dividend of EUR 0.70 per share. But it reflects the economic downturn that we've experienced, and it reflects some prudence going forward to maintain our balance sheet. For 2021, we expect to increase this dividend towards EUR 0.50 per share. Despite the recovery in 2021 from 2020 earning, it looks like a tough year, particularly in the midstream and downstream. We see no real signs of recovery yet. And although the oil price has gone up to $60 and above, we don't take this as a basis for planning. We're planning more prudently at $50 per barrel. Going forward, we are a company that has distinctive growth. We're a company that doesn't want to be valued by its dividend distribution alone, we want to combine growth and shareholder returns. I do respect that we need to create some clarity around this. And therefore, we're going to be having a Capital Markets Day in May. When I can describe what I've been doing in my first 100 days, we can deep dive into the various business sectors. We can talk about our operational performance, about our growth, about our medium- to long-term strategy and capital allocation. I'm very excited about leading Galp. I'm very excited about coming with you on a journey that can demonstrate what we can achieve. Now I'm going to hand over to Filipe, who is going to explain the fourth quarter and full year results to you. Thank you very much. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hey guys, I will start with the P&L on Slide 8, a brief review of the fourth quarter and the full year. In the quarter, group EBITDA was only EUR 410 million, given the environment our -- all our businesses were operating in. The upstream EBITDA was EUR 319 million, That's down 36% year-on-year, mostly reflecting low oil prices, lower production, but also the depreciation of the dollar versus the euro. Quarter-on-quarter, the increase in EBITDA comes mostly from a positive impact from adjustments in overcharges booked in previous periods. The full year EBITDA for upstream was EUR 1.1 billion, and that's down also 37%. Commercial EBITDA was EUR 71 million in the quarter and EUR 325 million for the full year, also highly affected by the effects of the Iberian lockdowns and the travel restrictions on the sales of oil products and natural gas. Now you know this is a very touristic part of the world and the economic effects have been particularly harsh in our core countries of Spain and Portugal. Refining and midstream, the EBITDA was EUR 17 million in the quarter, actually, with a quite a negative number in refining, given how challenging the refining environment was. But this was partially offset by a very resilient midstream contribution, including trading. The full year refining and midstream EBITDA was EUR 113 million here also with a negative contribution from refining. Renewables and new businesses is deconsolidated. So we have no contribution to EBITDA from our Spanish solar portfolio. So the net income of that business will follow under the associates line. Financial results were only EUR 19 million negative. So we have positive contribution from FX and mark-to-market valuations in some of our risk hedges. So after taxes, net income was EUR 3 million. IFRS net income was minus EUR 35 million in the quarter. And this mainly reflecting the post-tax effects from the Matosinhos refinery shutdown decision, partially offset by the capital gains we had from the sale of GGND. For the full year, we have over EUR 0.5 billion in IFRS losses with a very large inventory effect here on those numbers. Here on the cash flow table in Slide 9, we have CFFO of EUR 231 million in the quarter, reflecting the weak downstream contribution as well as the working capital build. For the full year, CFFO of EUR 1 billion was almost half of what we had in 2019, of course, highly impacted by the macro environments and the operational constraints brought about by COVID. Now this is especially true for our downstream activities with refining highly impacted by inventory effects, given the sharp decline in the commodity prices during the first half. Commercial was way more resilient despite the hefty reduction in oil and gas demand in Iberia, both in B2B and B2C. Upstream was very resilient with free cash flow actually up year-on-year given the magnitude of the CapEx reductions and the higher production. Bottom line here is that free cash flow was EUR 42 million in this most difficult year, and this already including the EUR 300 million plus solar acquisition in Spain. On the balance sheet, you see that our fixed assets decline. Now this is the result mostly from the Matosinhos impairments, equalizations and also the U.S. dollar depreciation against the euro. This affects the euro accounting value of all of our upstream assets. On GGND, the transaction that we announced back in October, should be completed very soon, the relevant regulatory conditions have been met and the sale has been booked except for the cash proceeds. So we have a receivable of EUR 368 million booked under the caption of other assets and liabilities. Net debt was stable at EUR 2.1 billion in the quarter, again, not considering the proceeds from GGND, and the liquidity position also remained very stable at about EUR 3 billion. This last slide on 2020 sums up pretty well actuals versus our guidance back in February, which seems like ages ago. Back then, we expected cash flow from operations of EUR 2.2 billion and ended up with less than half of that. Having said this, we had substantial cash preservation decisions whilst also completing the very strategic solar acquisition in Spain. And if you were to consider the sale of GGND, net CapEx would have been EUR 0.5 billion. So at the very bottom of the revised guidance we have provided you with back in April. Now Thore will now cover the next slide on upstream as we move into the 2021 outlook section. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Filipe. Let us start this short-term update by briefly covering upstream. As you all are aware, we disappointed on the production growth year-on-year with 7% versus what we initially target, namely between 13% and 17%. In our analysis, 65% of the shortfall was due to COVID, directly or indirectly. First, we had the direct shutdown of 2 FPSOs due to COVID outbreak on the installations. And secondly, we had significant slower hookup of new wells due to the reduced people on board, POB, on the installations and in the logistics chain, which we needed in order to perform the work. The reduced POB was a preventive measure to reduce the number of exposed individuals as much as possible. And that reduced capacity in the logistics chain was also linked then to COVID outbreaks on several of the vessels and the drilling platforms, where we also had the policy of minimum POB. This gave us less capacity to conduct the planned program. But as you all know, COVID-19 directly or indirectly impacted upstream businesses across the industry. And looking at our closest peers, no one else reported any production growth. And Galp still then delivered a 7% growth, all of which from very profitable low breakeven products, and this remains unparalleled in the integrated universe of companies. As a matter of fact, Galp upstream actually delivered a higher free cash flow in 2020 than in 2019, due to a forceful response to the price shortfall with a 55% reduction in CapEx versus the original plan as well as a 25% reduction in staffing due to the lowered activity level. More importantly, Galp's highly competitive portfolio remains intact with a top-tier delivery in terms of sustainability, both economically with a production cost of around $3 per barrel and environmentally with one of the lowest carbon intensity levels in the whole industry. Regarding our reserves and resources, result shows that our 2P reserves and 2C resources of 2.4 billion BOEs for 2020, that's in line with 2019 with 2020 production offset by added resources. We have included some details on this preliminary evaluation in the appendix. And now some guidance for 2021. Considering our recent experience, the uncertainty period we are facing and the persistent difficulties on all offshore activities related to COVID-19, we have decided to add a new layer of prudency to our forecast. We therefore see production in 2020 to be in the range of 125,000 to 135,000 barrels per day, i.e., in line with 2020. We will, of course, continue to work with our partners to implement and reinforce all mitigation measures whenever possible. However the pandemic effect introduces a risk, which we have tried to cater for with this production guidance. In 2021, we will conclude the ramp-up of the unit in Berbigão and Sururu, an important contributor to our production, and we will start up the production in the Sépia project. As mentioned by Andy, we are moving fast to clear all relevant milestones to sanction Phase 1 of Bacalhau. This is another world-class product with the consortium successfully capturing the opportunities available in the market to further optimize what was already a very competitive project. All in all, the FID is planned for first half 2021 and first oil in 2024. We have started early stages of FPSO construction works, while we are still working on optimizing development cost. We will continue with our partners in BM-S-11 to optimize the development of Tupi/Iracema and continuously assess value-added opportunities for further development in the field. An updated plan for development for the field is to be submitted to ANP later this year. And finally, we aim to start [Jacka] in São Tomé and Príncipe towards the end of 2021. This is a low-cost exploration activity, which, if successful, will add very valuable resources to our portfolio in the frontier basin. We will be sure to provide you a more in-depth view on our products at the Capital Markets Day. But in conclusion, and despite the short-term challenges, I am confident that Galp's upstream portfolio continues to be differentiated, both in terms of competitiveness and sustainable growth opportunities. I will now hand back to Filipe. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Thore. So on the other fronts, we still have the lockdown measures in place and the economic environment is still quite uncertain for Iberian oil and gas, at least during the first half of this year. So keeping our prudent stance, we have 2021 commercial EBITDA in line with 2020. Hopefully, the second half will prove us very wrong, and the environment will pick up quickly. The refining macro conditions remain challenging. Although the forward curves look supportive compared to the 2020 levels. So we see the Galp refining margins at $2 to $3 per barrel for the full year. Now concentrating all refining activities in Sines will lead to overall better competitiveness given the Sines SCC and the hydrocracker. The OpEx and CapEx savings should become fully visible next year as we decommission the Matosinhos processing units this year. And while it's difficult the decision to close the industrial activities of Matosinhos, it became inevitable given the markets and regulatory circumstances. Midstream 2021 EBITDA is estimated at EUR 50 million to EUR 100 million, this is compared with our previous guidance of EUR 150 million before, impacted by the weak gas environment, which may limit trading potential as well as by one-off costs related with particularly high tariffs for access to the Portuguese regasification terminal this year in 2021. In renewables, we continue to build up the competitive Spanish portfolio. We expect to have about 1.2 gigas installed by year-end with the additional 300 megas online by the fourth quarter of this year. And in the fourth quarter of last year of 2020, we have upsets in 2 transformers, this is covered by insurance, and this affected 375 megas of solar capacity. So this should be sorted out by next month, so well ahead of the summer peak production period. And we continue to look for attractive renewable projects, and our portfolio now stands at 3.7 gigas. This is with land and access to the grid. We will keep our discipline, value over volume, unlikely to win anything through auction mechanisms, which have recently had outcomes in this region, which we really struggle to understand. So we're not on that camp. Putting it all together on Slide 15. Now considering the restricted downstream environments in Iberia and Brent at $50, group EBITDA in 2021 should be in the range of EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.8 billion, while CFFO at EUR 1.3 billion to EUR 1.5 billion. We kept the CapEx guidance we have given you last year, so EUR 0.5 billion to EUR 700 million. Then this considers the Bacalhau FID and the proceeds of the sale of GGND. Now regarding the dividends of EUR 0.35 related to 2020, this should be distributed out after the AGM in April. So this should be [distributed] in May. And the Board has also indicated that under the foreseen scenario, say, Brent around $50, Galp should target a dividend of about EUR 0.50 related to the 2021 fiscal year with an interim payment to be considered sometime in the third quarter of this year. So I will stop here, and we will now take your questions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Otelo Ruivo, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Head of IR [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So we will open the q&a now. We have the team remotely connected from all over Europe to take your questions. So operator, could you open the session, please? ================================================================================ Questions and Answers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line from Biraj Borkhataria from Royal Bank of Canada. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Biraj Borkhataria, RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andy, best of luck for the coming months and into the Capital Markets Day. I have 2 questions, please. The first 1 is on CapEx. On your gross CapEx for 2021, what do you assume for the renewable spend? You also mentioned that you're expecting a lot of the bulk of the Bacalhau spend to be in that number. But could you also say whether you factored in FID in Mozambique or is that not assumed until 2022? And then the second question on the production guidance. I mean, you normally come out with very conservative production guidance at the start of the year. You said you've taken this to kind of another level. I wanted to get your thoughts on whether the changes at Petrobras have played a part in that conservative guidance and your early thoughts there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Biraj. So yes, thank you for your question. So yes, in terms of our growth CapEx this year, yes, Bacalhau is the largest element in that investment plan, and yes, we really hope that we can go forward with that soon. Look, on renewables, we're talking about EUR 200 million on it, so a substantial amount of money actually is going into renewables. But we aren't putting any money in for Rovuma at this stage. Still, we're evaluating the way forward with our partners there. But do remember we are spending money on Coral, the floating LNG scheme. So some Coral, some renewables and Bacalhau being a large element in that CapEx plan. In terms of our production guidance, I think, Thore, he made sure I -- coming firstly, Biraj coming into this job, I know the 7% increase was a disappointment, but I think it just shows how amazing that portfolio is. But even in this really, really dreadful year that we could grow by 7%. What we saw last year, we still see this year. We see issues with availability. We see wells not being hooked up as in the times we expected. So this is an ongoing difficult production environment, but in no way is this related to changes of leadership in Petrobras. They are -- as you know, I know them very well from being partners with them before. They are an impressive executor of projects. And I don't think that change is impacting those production numbers. I might ask Thore if he wants to say any more about the 2021 production numbers? Because I can understand they are a little bit disappointing from what previously was announced. Thore? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Andy. Well, you know the upstream business better than most. So I guess that actually covered it really, really well. But what we have done is exactly what we -- based on our experience from 2020, we have seen that it takes longer to hook up new wells to have the necessary capacity in the logistic chains. And therefore, we have added -- actually what we have done is, we have actually done it in 2 ways. We have done both the probabilistic and a deterministic sort of simulation of what is the expected outcome of production, and that's why we are guiding in the way we're doing right now between 125 and 135. That is our best view as of today. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Biraj Borkhataria, RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Director, Co-Head of European Energy Research Team & Lead Analyst [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And anything on the changes at Petrobras, any comments you can share? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On my side, absolutely, I completely concur with Andy. Petrobras is really executing very well. They have a very professional team. And I think that the team will continue to execute. So at this stage, we have no reason to have any worry on that. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Oswald Clint from Bernstein. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Oswald C. Clint, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division - Senior Research Analyst [8] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andy, obviously, great to have you on the call. I mean I want to ask a bigger question. Obviously, Galp have great assets, and you know them very well. But I guess 1 of the issues you're going to find is that investors do think of Galp as more of a, let's say, passive participant in some of these assets, whether it's Brazil or Mozambique, and having to wait for decisions further up the chain, which I guess was you in your old Shell position. So I wanted to firstly get you to talk about what you can do or say to dispel some of those views. I know it's early, but any views on how you might be able now to get the market to better -- really better appreciate the underlying asset quality in this portfolio because I think it has struggled over time to be fully valued? And then secondly, I wanted to ask about -- you talked about solar and Filipe mentioned the recent auction. So you want to grow that funnel. Prices in January, EUR 24 a megawatt hour, you're collecting closer to [40] at the moment on the current portfolio. Does this mean you have to step outside of Iberian Peninsula to really grow the renewables pipeline? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [9] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's interesting. Clearly, I understood the Galp portfolio really well when I was in Shell. And what I can see with the portfolio, not only is it probably the best in our industry. We always -- one of the rationales for Sehll to buy BG was always to get into the Brazilian pre-salt. And I think Galp has a great and enviable position there. And yes, it wouldn't surprise you that Shell always looked at Mozambique quite positively. And I think that is one of the best and clearly one of the most prolific gas resources available to [IOCs]. Now am I concerned about the fact that we're a non-operator? I think Galp has been a really, really strong nonoperator. I think it has been able to bring really relevant technical information to the table, which actually sometimes the operator has been influenced by. And again, from my experience, being a nonoperator is not an issue if you have really, really good operators. And I think Petrobras and Equinor in Brazil, ExxonMobil in Mozambique, Eni with the floating LNG, I think these are companies that I always enjoyed working with. And I think in this scalp role, not only have they got great resources, I think they've also got great partners as operators. And we will continue to play our role. And hopefully, I can add a little bit there because of my experience as a nonoperator to influence them. As it goes on renewables, also, yes, indeed. So majority of the investments we've made so far, the 900 megawatts, there is a price floor on that, regulatory price floor. Going forward, we're going to have to look at how we balance the risk to the markets we're in. And we are going to be looking at what other markets we may move into. Now I can't give you any more details on that today, but I think that will be one of the things that we will address when it comes to the Capital Markets Day in May about how we would like to grow that renewables portfolio to increase it -- to increase its resilience, but also to increase the cash flows over a period of time. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [10] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Mehdi Ennebati from Bank of America. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mehdi Ennebati, BofA Securities, Research Division - Research Analyst [11] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So 2 questions, please, if I may. First one, on the dividend. So you provided, let's say, your dividend for full year 2021 at EUR 0.50 per share. So what oil price could -- would make you revise down, let's say, that EUR 0.50 per share level? So let's say that the oil price goes back to $50. Will you still keep your EUR 0.50 per share dividend target or no? And if I may, just regarding the decision on the interim dividend, you said that this will be taken in the first quarter. Just for us to try to anticipate it, what will make you choose to pay an interim dividend? And is it related to the oil price only? And another question regarding your CapEx guidance. I mean, last year, you said that the CapEx -- the net CapEx will be between EUR 500 million and EUR 700 million on average for 2020 and 2021. So given that in 2020, you, let's say, had net CapEx above EUR 800 million. I'd say that the market would have expected you to have, let's say, lower guidance this year or lower CapEx this year than last year. So can you tell us why your guidance is relatively high in 2021? Is it you being overly cautious? Or is it because, in fact, you and Equinor decided to accelerate on the development of Bacalhau or maybe on the development of your renewable pipeline? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [12] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Mehdi. So firstly, on the dividend and oil price up, down. Our results are a basket of prices and demand levels in the refinery, in oil price, in the commercial business. So I don't think this is a -- we're not -- we haven't prescribed a formula here. And I don't think that is what we're doing at the moment. We're saying if we have a reasonable year, it's EUR 0.50 dividend. And that's -- I don't think we're going to be looking at small tweaks up and down as we track oil prices. We are going to come back in May with a dividend policy. So we can be clearer and give the shareholders more certainty about their remuneration. For this sense, unless there are any disasters either way, then it is a EUR 0.50 dividend. But we're going to be recommending clearly subject to all the approvals that we need to have. The interim dividend, I think, we'll perhaps ask Filipe to talk about it in a minute. I think we will have to see how the market develops. We're in a full lockdown in Portugal at the moment, which is one of our key markets. So we have to see how COVID plays out this year. And we have to see as we get into giving that interim dividend, how much confidence we have over that overall market and I hope we can declare one. But I'll perhaps ask in a second for Filipe to talk in a bit more detail about the dividend policy. As to CapEx guidance, unlike the company I worked in before, big investments either way can be quite lumpy in this company. The GGND was recognized on the book for last year but the cash is this year. So you could imagine that GGND had hit the books last year, then we clearly would be well within the range. And so this year, we are going to invest in Bacalhau, but we're going to take benefit from the GGND sale on -- in a cash basis. I think you need to look across these 2 years and combine them and say, okay, what is the average across the 2 years of the EUR 0.5 billion to EUR 0.7 billion. But no, indeed, I think our message is for this year that we are not stopping all CapEx. We are continuing with a few selected investments and I think particularly in the renewables portfolio and specifically in Bacalhau, if we can get all approvals and we can go forward. I think it's probably worth, Filipe, just to talk a bit about the dividend and what will determine how much we pay on an interim basis. So Filipe? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [13] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mehdi, clearly versus the previous guidance as we have provided before, we now have more prudent production levels. Obviously, we have lower Brent price assumption at about $50, refining $2 to $3. I mean all this could surprise on the upside. We'll see. lockdowns may cease further. But at this stage, we will want also to deleverage a bit this company. We're going to take the FID for Bacalhau. Bacalhau is about 30% of our production. So it's a massive project for us, highly profitable. And we look at shareholder value creation at large. If you look at the screen today, we are -- EUR 0.50, we are at 6.5% yield for a company that has a very high terminal value. So I think our peers are at about 6% on average. So the investment proposition of Galp we think is different. We do not aim to be the highest dividend payer. So some discrimination is warranted in our view. Our cost of capital should be different given the longevity of our portfolio. And so as we approach CMD and then the fall and if things go really well, yes, so there might be a component of the EUR 0.50 that could be distributed out within '21. And that is the expectation within the macro framework we're looking at. Just maybe a word on CapEx. So before the divestment in GGND and for 2021, very wrong numbers, about EUR 850 million this year. Let's say about EUR 0.5 billion or so for upstream. So that would be about 60% of our CapEx. That includes Bacalhau, Coral, and it also includes the last tranche of the payment for the Bacalhau North acquisition -- sorry, Bacalhau South acquisition, which is due with the unitization that should come shortly. The EUR 200 million alluded by Andy on renewables, this is the equity component. So the total gross CapEx, if we had 100% and if it was all financed in our books would be much more than that. And then you have about EUR 100 million in commercial or so and a bit in refining. So I hope this answers your questions, Mehdi. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [14] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Thomas Adolff from Crédit Suisse. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thomas Yoichi Adolff, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research and Director [15] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I stick to the upstream, if I may. And it's just a question generally about Brazil, so not just for Galp. Are all the FPSOs in Brazil facing the same problem you are facing, i.e., it makes sense to be risking the production potential across Brazil by, say, 10%? And then secondly, you did have a high impact well you were drilling, I think. And you -- I think you hit the target there just before COVID, that's the oil approval well. And I was wondering if there's an update on that? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [16] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So look, I really wouldn't want to give any guidance on FPSOs in Brazil. Interestingly, as you may know, I was Vice Chairman of SBM before this. So I could see how challenging it was to operate these FPSOs during the COVID time. Just in terms of getting people onto the FPSOs and keeping things at minimum manning, not being able to get specialist vendors, with all the flight restrictions and everything else that goes on, and I think we see those even tightening today. So this is a difficult environment and clearly not 1 where you can get access to the resources as readily as you normally can. It's not predictable how that affects your production. But clearly, it does and it affects the pace in which you can continue to hook up things. So I think there is a macro impact of this and, particularly, on these offshore units in Brazil, which obviously been impacted hard by COVID, but I wouldn't give you guidance on that. I think Thore will -- may add to that. But the other thing is Uirapuru to give an update on that because obviously, that was predated me. So Thore? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [17] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Andy. When it comes to Uirapuru, we have finished the evaluation of the Uirapuru as well which were the 1 that we drilled. And the evaluation is actually not conclusive at this stage. For a prudence basis, we have actually impaired the amounts that we have spent on that well. As we view it at this stage, it doesn't justify a stand-alone development. However, there is more prospectivity in that liaison. And what we are doing right now is that we then together with the partnership are evaluating what is now the next step, including then possible reprocessing of the seismic data in order to see what are the further potential. We see further prospectivity in Uirapuru. So the last word is not said regarding this opportunity in Brazil for us. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thomas Yoichi Adolff, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research and Director [18] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What exactly this -- I mean what went wrong, I guess? You thought this would be a Carcará look alike and then, obviously, it turned out to be noncommercial. Was it at least discovery wave encountered oil? And what was exactly the issue there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [19] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. So I can confirm there's discovery assets, also was notified into the press and via ANP. So hydrocarbons is definitely located and that is why we see that the petroleum systems are confirmed. But as you know, there are always several factors that need to fit together in order for this to be 100% commercial. And at this stage, I would not like, Thomas, to go into further detail. As you know, this is something that there are a lot of sensitivity with, and we would like not to keep that information internally in the partnership as we are evaluating further opportunities. But petroleum systems has been confirmed, hydrocarbons has been found and there is still very interesting prospects to be tested and evaluated in Uirapuru. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [20] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question comes from the line from Jon Rigby from UBS. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathon Rigby, UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - MD, Head of Oil Research and Lead Analyst [21] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andy, I want just to ask you, when we first met, I think you were running Qatar in Shell, and that was 2 giant development projects going on. So you presumably can see how a successful upstream business runs both non-op and op because, obviously, there are skill sets that you can add and add value to. And as you noted, is Galp has no real op. I mean do you think so in advance of the Capital Markets Day, one of the things you'll get your head around is whether some sort of rebalancing of that exposure for the company to be successful makes some sense. And just because of the [ways], your experience in that? That would be my first question. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [22] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jon, yes, thanks for the question. And I think we'll probably again update in May. Yes, Shell clearly brought to the table masses of technical capability, experience across the world. I think certainly for Galp, it's a much leaner organization. It is set up on a nonoperated basis at the moment. So I think if we went into an operated position, we need to think very clearly about what that meant for us. Yes, the Qatar operation, as you know, was enormous, enormous, I mean the (inaudible) project in itself. Now what was interesting about that was I think we're bringing together a number of things around technology and access to resources and things. So I think some of those fundamentals I can still bring to the table and we can bring to the table, understanding the basics of energy system, understanding where Galp can invest for benefit and leveraging partnerships in that process. So I have a big network in upstream. I have an experience in operatorship. I'm not sure if that translates to -- let's be an operator in Galp. But I'm sure I think I can bring real added benefit, particularly, in the integrated gas world. And we can see those projects are clearly the operators are already selected and they're really good ones, as I said. Let's see as we go forward, as we explore more how we develop that upstream portfolio. But I'd be honest, I have to say, Thore and team are top world-class upstream players. I have been really impressed with the people I've met and the depth of insight they've had in the places they are, they have a position as nonoperator. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathon Rigby, UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - MD, Head of Oil Research and Lead Analyst [23] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Right. And just on -- just to pick up on 1 of the comments you made in your introductory remarks. You talked about taking hard decisions. I think you sort of feel intimated about dynamism and so on. I guess as a non-op, a lot of that is then around about how you manage portfolio. So do you envisage the company being somewhat more dynamic in the way that it manages its portfolio going forward with an eye on value? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think this -- Jon, you've touched on the key points as I come into this company. What's really important is that we set out our strategic direction. We have a rich portfolio in the upstream, specifically, obviously, projects like Bacalhau and a good exploration portfolio as well. We have this massive opportunity in Mozambique with integrated gas. We need to look very clearly at Sines, what we do with the refinery there and how we make that fit for the future. We have big ambitions in the commercial arena. We have big ambitions to grow our renewables. When I say -- and we have things like Bacalhau value chains, hydrogen value change to look at. When I say we have to be -- take tough choices, I think we have to be really clear on which things and which of these sources we're backing because I don't think we can afford to do everything. And so that clarity of purpose is what I'm really keen to bring into the plans for Galp. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [25] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question comes from the line from Joshua Stone from Barclays. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joshua Eliot Dweck Stone, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Analyst [26] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Congratulations on the new role, Andy. I've got 2 questions, please. Firstly, on just coming back to the upstream production guidance for this year. You obviously said how much contingency you're actually including in these numbers. I'm just trying to think if availability does come back in 2020, and we're in a sort of COVID-free world, touchwood or vaccine world. How much production could come back in 2022? And then my second question, slightly more higher level. You mentioned sort of Galp being the right size for an agile transition. I just wondered if you could talk at a high level, what you think the right pace of change is for Galp from the upstream to renewables? And maybe talk about, at a high level, your intentions there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [27] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, thank you. So Joshua, in terms of the production numbers, yes, I mean I think many may think I've come in and clearly wanted to kitchen sink it or something like that. No, this is not the case. I perhaps facilitated a discussion about where we thought we were and what was the likely outcome, and that's what we've done. Clearly, we'd love to be able to offer more and I will be putting a lot of pressure on Thore and team to see what they can do to achieve that. But this is, I think, a fair representation of how we see the market today. So we're not going to speculate. So then the second question is around -- apologies, Joshua, what -- the second question is around? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joshua Eliot Dweck Stone, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Analyst [28] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorry, on the speed of the transition, so how quickly you're prepared to move from upstream to renewables? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [29] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, yes. So I think this is a -- again, this is something for May. As I said in my remarks, that a year ago, there was really no renewables to speak about and a now large Iberian solar player. So clearly, this is a company that can make moves and make a difference very quickly. Clearly, if you look at upstream position, it's been impressive. It's been growing fast, but it's 130,000 barrels a day. I do think this is a company that has the agility to look at -- certainly through this decade at making substantial changes. Now we have to decide what's prudent for the shareholder, we have to decide what is in line with the energy transition and how fast we feel we need to go. That's something that we will be studying quite carefully in the next 3 months and then come back to you with some guidance of how we see that. Now Galp has already guided at 10 gigawatts by 2030. And if you do the sums versus our upstream size, that's massive. So that's -- the ratio, that's a bigger transition, a faster transition than any of our competitors. So this is a company that can move fast. This is a company that can build a substantial portfolio in the new energy space and execute it. As Filipe said, we have 3.7 gigawatts of -- in the funnel of opportunities with grid connection already in place. So let's see how fast that goes, but it's underpinned by a really solid upstream in assets, as we know, that have very low decline rates. So this is a great platform for a company to launch into a transition and to do it, I think, effectively and persuasively and ahead of the rest of the market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [30] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Sasikanth Chilukuru from Morgan Stanley. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sasikanth Chilukuru, Morgan Stanley, Research Division - Research Associate [31] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I had 2 left, please. The first 1 is -- was related to the upstream and upstream production. I was just wondering if it was possible to provide the production profile or the expected production profile on a quarterly basis in 2021, whether -- I just wanted to check whether there was any major turnaround activity in the first half of 2021? Or if there's any difference in production levels in the first half and the second half? Any comments on the production level so far this year would also be useful. And If you were to look into 2022 other than Sepia, are there any FPSO units that will be ramping up in 2022? And based on the current assumptions, would 2022 production be higher or lower than that of 2021? My second question was related to the CapEx and the comment of the CapEx level being around EUR 850 million in 2021, would that be a starting point for 2022 organic CapEx, given potentially higher spend in Bacalhau next year? Would you see 2022 CapEx -- organic CapEx levels being higher than EUR 1 billion potentially in 2022? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [32] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Sasi. Thanks for your question. Look, I think on the first point, and I'll probably pass to Thore to talk about it, I'm not sure we give quarter-by-quarter guidance but Thore will be able to elucidate on that. On CapEx numbers, I'm -- certainly on production for subsequent years, really, you're going to have to wait, I think, to the Capital Markets Day for us to reveal how we think that production goes in subsequent years. On a CapEx level also, this is again something for us to explain in a bit more detail with the rationale in our Capital Markets Day. So again, I'm not able to give any guidance on that. So I'm going to hand to Thore to talk about where -- what kind of production anticipation we've got over the year. Thore? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [33] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Andy. Sasi, we do not have sort of a [knowhow]. What should I say? We do not have the practice of guiding on a quarterly basis, Sasi. So that would not be correct of me to give you a guidance on that. I think the best thing we can do for now is to remind you on the 125 to 130, that is the range. And then as we come to the Capital Markets in May, we will also then start to speak about what is going to happen beyond 2021. But at this stage, it would not also be correct of me to mention what our thinking is beyond 2022, except for the fact that, as you correctly mentioned, Sepia will ramp up. And also remember that towards the end of 2022, we also expect to have the contribution from Coral. But guidance on the volumes, I think we will leave until the Capital Markets Day in May. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [34] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Michael Alsford from Citi Group. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael James Alsford, Citigroup Inc., Research Division - Director [35] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've got a couple if I could. Firstly, on the midstream, the EBITDA guidance is typically much higher than what you've guided to for 2021. So I was just hopeful you could perhaps elaborate on your assumptions that you're assuming for 2021? And what were the one-off cost that Filipe mentioned in his prepared comments? And then just secondly, I thought it was interesting. You're 1 of the very few companies that provide prospective resources in the upstream. And I noticed that it was interesting given the Uirapuru well, but actually, prospective resources actually increased by over 10% in 2021. And just more broadly, I just wondered if you could maybe talk a little bit about how given the energy transition, how you plan to try and monetize this potential resource base going forward? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [36] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Michael. Thank you for your question. Look, I'm going to leave the detailed guidance on the midstream EBITDA to Filipe. I think he did mention the high cost for liquefaction that we have in 2021 and obviously some depressed demand through the year, but he may be able to state more on that. And I will ask actually Thore to also talk about the increase in prospective resources. I have to say that we do give -- and I think we give 2P and 2C numbers, and some of you will remember how I often talked about the ratio of 2P and 2C to production and how many years we would like to have in the bank there. Galp is in a really, really good position with respect to that metric. And that I think, again, is a real strength of this company going forward. And therefore, it doesn't necessarily have to look to the exploration success to see a funnel of good projects coming through over time. So it's in a strong position in the resource base. And of course, again, in Capital Markets Day, we'll talk about how we're going to turn that into production so over a period of time. So can I just then ask to Filipe, is there any more to add on the midstream EBITDA guidance. Filipe? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [37] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael, so in late last year, there was the auction for access to the liquefaction plant in Sines and that's the only 1 we have in Portugal. And a number of players were very long gas with take pay commitments, trying to unload their molecules. So the auction led to a very high one-off cost for access to the 2021 capacity. This is most likely going to be reversed next year. You will have seen there was a peak pricing, both in Asia and in Europe for gas, not as much in Europe. So inventories are down. So there's less -- we see a lot less pressure for unloading gas molecules in Portugal going forward. So the guidance of 100-ish of EBITDA midstream and refining is actually all midstream, so trading effectively of gas and oil as the $2 to $3 per barrel assumption for the refinery leaves almost no EBITDA. So our cash costs at about 2.5, 2.7, there will be very little -- on our assumptions, very little EBITDA left in '21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [38] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And then if I should just comment on your second question regarding the prospective resources. Michael, that's -- the 2 key contributors of the increase there has been -- is São Tomé & Príncipe and also there is some contribution from -- also from Namibia. But there is also from Uirapuru, as you very correctly have pointed out, and as I said in my comments. We have made a discovery there that have led us to be able to include that in the resources. But as we said, as for now, we do not see that they are on a stand-alone basis or commercial. But there is more opportunity set in that block, and we will continue to look for to derisk that. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [39] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [40] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For Andy, please. If you had to meet an investor today, and if their question was, what are your top 2 priorities for Galp? I mean I was interested what will be your answer? And the second question is, what do you think about refining. Do you think that refinery like Sines can remain competitive over the next 2 years? Because clearly we may see some coming back of the margins on the back of pent-up demand. But going forward, the demand in Europe was sluggish. I was wondering if you think that Sines could remain competitive in -- over the next few years? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [41] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Alessandro. So yes, I've been obviously thinking very hard about what the top priorities are for me coming into the company. And I think the #1 priority is to set the strategic direction of the company. And we have embarked upon a detailed strategy refresh exercise, looking at the opportunities we have and the choices we may need to make going forward. And clearly, I will not be able to reveal everything, but hopefully, I'll give some further guidance in May, I think Capital Mark's Day on that. The second, I think, is really just about bringing into Galp a sense of teamwork, of delegation accountability, performance management and agility that will make this a really dynamic company. And I clearly -- I have some experience outside the company. And coming in, I think I can sense how I can take what is already a super team and take it to the next level of performance. So something about direction and something about unlocking the latent performance of the company. I think the future of Sines is 1 of those big strategic questions. Clearly, it's a refinery now. Clearly, it's a lot more profitable refinery than we had in Matosinhos. But still, the world is changing fast. So what will we need to invest in that refinery in order to make it fit for the future? And how long is that future going to be? Really important considerations for us as we get into planning our way forward. So we hopefully will see a bounce back of some of the margins. But we also have to recognize that Iberian liquids demand will diminish over time. So how does Sines fit and how do we make it one of the top Iberian refineries in that world, really important decisions for us to take. So thank you very much for your comments and questions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [42] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Jason Kenney from Santander. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jason S. Kenney, Grupo Santander, Research Division - Head of European Oil and Gas Equity Research [43] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andy, really good that you're head of a very dynamic company. I've got a couple of questions. On -- well, firstly, to Filipe, the usual tax rate question, if you could. I think I ask it every quarter. Any guidance for the early part of 2021 in the next 12 months, your base case assumptions? Secondly, on -- I'm still a bit confused about the deconsolidation of renewables. Because obviously, you created a renewables division and then deconsolidated everything. So do you think it will still be a deconsolidated business for the foreseeable future? Or once you get past 3.7 gigawatts and start rolling out towards 10 gigawatts, you consolidate that business back in? And maybe just staying on renewables, just the proportion of PPA versus merchant exposure of those 3.7 gigawatts please? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [44] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jason, can I just hand those questions to Filipe? I think they're very much in his court. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [45] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jason, same questions, same answers every quarter. Longer term, on a normal world, we should be at about 40% on a cash basis, 50% on a P&L basis. Now we're not living in a normal world. And not only have we unfortunately created substantial tax losses this year. If you look at the P&L in '21, most of what you see on the P&L is actually SPT taxes in Brazil, so 85% or 90% is SPT. Because unfortunately, the non-upstream division was not generating any net income. So we need to wait for more normal times to get to where our guidance has been. On deconsolidation of renewables, this is a big point for debate and there will be some discussion ahead of CMD. But at this stage, we are an oil and gas company. Oil and gas companies have a very, very low leverage, have a much higher cost of capital than renewables. So it kind of makes sense to arbitrage and lever up the renewables division because there's a different pool of lenders that are very keen to do that. So whether we consolidate and you see that on the balance sheet is a bit optical, frankly. You know and we will give you guidance on, if we were to have 100% of this business and fully funded by Galp, what would be the EBITDA? So you'll get that. But accounting-wise, this cannot -- as an oil and gas company, this cannot still be seen as an on-balance sheet proposition, given the ambitions and the size of the portfolio we want to develop. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [46] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Anish Kapadia from Palissy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anish Kapadia, Palissy Advisors Limited - Director & Head of Energy [47] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I had a couple of questions. Just wanted to get some guidance on a few of the financial items to start with. If you could give some detail on your expectations for the associate dividends that you'd get this year, the Sinopec dividends that are going out and your cash financial expenses? And then just a second question in terms of just going back to Brazil at the moment, just where you are in terms of Tupi in your existing FPSOs? What's your expectation in terms of decline rates on those FPSOs? Now that you've reached plateau production, should we be expecting those to be moving into decline without any further projects on those? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [48] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Anish. Let me ask Filipe to give you some guidance on the first one, and I'll ask Thore to give some guidance on the decline rates and also plans for -- the plan of development for the Tupi field in general. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [49] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anish, the dividends to Sinopec for -- at the very bottom of the P&L under minority payments, so that's outside of the associates line. We know it was a high number in 2020, that was based on the 2019 performance of upstream Brazil. So we're not expecting that sort of number in 2021. The other associates or the associates have been predominantly the pipelines that we have coming from Northern Africa into Iberia. GGND, both of these are expected to disappear shortly. So we're selling GGND and our access or the use of the pipelines from Northern Africa is under negotiation with Sonatrach and the Moroccan authorities. So I would not bank on continuity of these 2 lines. We also had the touch entity held by Shell, ourselves and Petrobras that was the owner of a lot of the upstream equipment in Brazil, and that's been all sold into the JV in Brazil. So you will be seeing that disappearing as well going forward. So the associates line structurally will be heavily weighted by the solar portfolio. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [50] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anish, when it comes to Tupi, Iracema and the way forward. Right now, what is the key challenge for us is actually to have and making available the capacity that we actually have for the different unit, i.e., we need to be able to hook up the wells and connect the wells and commission the wells faster so that we can get additional production capacity. We still have wells that needs to be drilled and wells that needs to be connected. So that is the short-term focus and a little bit longer focus. And as I mentioned in my introduction and remarks, and which we are really excited about really is the fact that in the partnership now, there is very, very good discussions about how should updated development plan for Tupi, Iracema looks like. And the -- what we are in alignment in the partnership is now that's that we intend to go to ANP towards the end of this year and to deliver a new plan for development and production. As you know, we at Galp are quite -- see quite a bit of additional potential for Tupi, Iracema. There is -- as you know, we think there are around 20 billion barrels of oil in place in that reservoir and only 1 percentage point improvement in recovery is 200 million barrels. So we think that there is a significant opportunity to get significantly more resources out of Tupi, Iracema and that is our key focus right now. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [51] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Matt Lofting from JPMorgan. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matthew Peter Charles Lofting, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - VP [52] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andy, welcome to Galp and congrats on the appointment. Two questions, if I could, please. First, on energy transition. Andy, I wanted to come back to the reference you made during your introductory remarks on Galp being rightsized to be agile for the transition. You pointed to a pretty active renewables investment this year relatively. When you look beyond pure size, could you share some initial thoughts on where the company can positively differentiate industrially through the transition and how that perhaps feeds into capital allocation thinking into May, particularly given apparent competition, the recent low carbon auctions in the region? And then secondly, returning to the cash return frame. Clearly, 2020 was an exceptional year in a number of different ways. But when you look forward and we sort of take the EUR 0.50 indication for 2021, strikes me that conceptually with the industry's macro cycles, combined with Galp's growth and potential transition objectives, it has proved challenging in recent history for the company to calibrate and sustain an absolute dividend policy. So could you just talk a bit more specifically about the nature of the dividend mechanism that you're trying to communicate with the EUR 0.50 here? Can it be part of a through cycle, absolute distribution, grown commensurate with earnings and cash? Or while Galp remains in growth mode, does it ultimately need to be configured more around the payout-based logic? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [53] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Thanks, Matt. Thanks for the question. Yes. So look, the differentiators, as I say, I came into this company kind of aware that they've made this big solar investment and -- which is clearly a lot of megawatts in Iberia. But when I actually came into the company, I found that it was really dynamic. And then there were a lot of other avenues that have been explored, whether it's through hydrogen, through Sines and connections and/or it's through the battery value chain or it's through creating a business that puts solar panel roofs. What I find is a company that with the right focus and the right focus on innovation can move fast and create these different value chains. So I think that's a key strength. And why is that? Because it's an engineering company, because it's a company that has access to markets and understands particularly the Iberian market. It's customers' well. It straddles these businesses and therefore, can look at the integration opportunities but also can invest as we've seen also in -- through its relationships across Iberia. And arguably, over time, I think, in my international spaces with the relationship it has to build up an upstream renewable generation portfolio. So it is a mixture of things, coupled with this innovation that I think there will -- and the size where a senior team, like I will lead, will be able to understand the returns that we get from those various investments. That clearly is a priority to put that together and to be able to articulate that in a really compelling way when we come back in May. As for how we look at shareholder distributions. I think this is a company and I said in our remarks, I don't want this company to be valued just because it has some kind of terminal value and we will distribute dividends until we run out of path. That's not the intention. The intention is for a company that does give a very competitive return to the shareholder. At the same time, it's growing not only in its upstream but also in its new energies positions. And I think that Galp uniquely has that capability to the shareholder, to offer good distributions but also to demonstrate that it is growing, growing in cash flows. And then obviously, over time, will hopefully allow also those distributions to grow. So I think this is a company that, for those 2 reasons, I think should be able to come back with a really compelling proposition to you starting in May and then building away from there. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [54] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next question comes from the line from Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jorge Guimarães, JB Capital Markets, Sociedad de Valores, S.A., Research Division - Analyst [55] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My first question would be related to your guidance on refining margin. Is it possible to provide us with an update on the long-term guidance just with the Sines refinery? I assume it's more efficient. So we would like to have your view on that. And the second one, it's about the guidance for commercial in 2021. You are guiding for a higher volume of oil product sales. And yet, you maintain EBITDA flat year-on-year. So I would like to understand better what could be happening in 2021? Is it a reduction in margin or what could be going on? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [56] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks Jorge. Look, I will start, and I'm going to ask Filipe also to add something on this. With respect to refinery margins, we enjoyed $4 to $5 before, we're talking about $2 to $3 this year. So clearly, there's -- we believe there's some upside potential to the margin without having doing anything. Now clearly, in terms of Galp, having focused only on Sines and obviously closing [Matosinhos] is going to improve the average margin that we enjoy as a company. And we'll really enjoy that in 2022 once we've gone through the decommissioning and decontamination exercises. Now clearly, the big decision is how many more investments we're going to make in Sines to actually improve that margin further, and look at the various ways that we can do that. And there are multiple different avenues that we could consider investing in the refinery going forward. I think in terms of commercial, it was a strong year in 2020 with -- given the demand. And demand recovers but doesn't get back to the 2019 level this year. And this is all around an assumption of the different products and what kind of margin we're going to get on those products through the year. So I think we're expecting another strong year like last year, I think, is our conclusion from the commercial business. Do you want to add anything to that, Filipe? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Filipe Crisóstomo Silva, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - CFO & Executive Director [57] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Just on the refining, without Matosinhos and given its hydroskimming nature, the theoretical margin increase of Sines alone will be about $1 over the -- what we had before for the 2 refineries on a normalized year. So this year, clearly, we will not have CapEx going to Matosinhos, but we still have a lot of the OpEx as we decommission and decontaminate, et cetera. On commercial, just a reminder that we had a pretty good 2 months last year over summer and also January and February were quite good. So 2020 was bad, but we had pretty solid period that where we stand today, we're pretty far from where we were last summer. Hence, still some caution. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [58] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And our final question comes from the line from Raphaël DuBois from Societe Generale. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Raphaël DuBois, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research - Equity Analyst [59] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Welcome on board, Andy. One question on upstream. Can you just explain the decline rates that you're observing at the various Brazilian zones where you are? If some of those zones have experienced finally a pickup in decline in 2020? That would be my first question. And then on Matosinhos, you were trying to sell some parts from this refinery. Can you also give us an update on this disposal proceeds -- sorry, disposal target? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew R. D. Brown, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Vice Chairman of the Board & CEO [60] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Thank you, Raphaël. So look, I don't know to what detail we would want to go into in terms of individual FPSOs and decline rates. It's a difficult combination of availability level, water injection performance, all sorts of other aspects that go into the overall production of these individual FPSOs. As Thore kind of explained that there is a lot of oil and a lot of further opportunity for infill drilling and to compensate for decline rates. So to kind of have an image, this thing is up to peak and now will just slowly decline away, I think, isn't giving the true nature of that -- the potential of that resource. I will give Thore the floor just in case there's any more to add to that. As to Matosinhos, I have to first say that I think coming into this company, my heart goes out to the people that work so hard for so long on that refinery. And I know that clearly, the decision made by the Board in December to close it is a very heavy one on the people involved. And clearly, it's going to remain as a logistics part for us. And we will look for other ways to use that facility, and we're studying that carefully. Clearly, some of the equipment there is equipment that we can use potentially in other projects in Sines, but there are no clear plans for exactly what we might do there. But our priority at the moment is clearly to make sure that we have a good plan for the people, have a good plan for how we're going to very responsibly decommission and decontaminate the site and then plan on what we will do and what we can do with the facilities going forward. So Thore, any more to add on this, I guess you will agree this isn't a simple now it's all about decline. It's all about coming out with a plan that make sure that we don't get too much decline at all. So Thore, how do you want to address that? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thore Ernst Kristiansen, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - COO & Executive Director [61] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. So first of all, it would not be correct of us to go in on this on an individual FPSO basis to discuss this. The key focus last year and it will remain the key focus this year is to make sure that we get available the resources, i.e., the wealth, the injectors that we have in place, make sure that we do the planned well workovers. Due to the capacity constraints, that has not been to the level that we really wanted to do in 2020. That is also why we are a bit cautious for 2021 that we do not necessarily have access to the resources in this respect as needed. And then it is -- as Andy said, it's a combination of the water injection capacity, the gas export capacity available and then at the same time, prudent reservoir management, where we do see that there is the need to make sure that we have the proper reservoir pressure in order to make sure that we can, in the best possible way, optimize the production. But as I said in my previous intervention as well, key focus here, guys, is that there's still a lot of oil to be taken out of Tupi, Iracema. And our focus now is really now to come up with a very good plan for how can we further maximize the recovery in this field to second phase of development, and the partnership, as I said, is working really well in this aspect to maximize recovery of the field. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Otelo Ruivo, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. - Head of IR [62] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So I think we'll come to the end of this session. Thank you all. The IR team will be happy to take any further questions that you might have as always. So I hope to see you all soon. Bye-bye. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [63] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That does conclude the conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.