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Edited Transcript of IRE.AX earnings conference call or presentation 17-Feb-21 10:30pm GMT

·25 min read

Full Year 2020 Iress Ltd Earnings Call Melbourne, Victoria Feb 18, 2021 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Iress Ltd earnings conference call or presentation Wednesday, February 17, 2021 at 10:30:00pm GMT TEXT version of Transcript ================================================================================ Corporate Participants ================================================================================ * Andrew Leslie Walsh IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director * John Harris IRESS Limited - CFO ================================================================================ Conference Call Participants ================================================================================ * Bob Chen JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Research Analyst * Scott Lyndon Hudson MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst ================================================================================ Presentation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for standing by and welcome to the IRESS LTD 2020 Full Year Financial Results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Andrew Walsh, CEO. Please go ahead. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for joining us today and welcome to IRESS's 2020 Results Call. I'm joined on (inaudible). We've released a new presentation to the ASX this morning. I'm conscious of your time, and I'll concentrate my remarks on the opening pages of the deck and John will take you through the financials. We'll then open lines for questions you may have. As well as reporting results and affirming growth strategies, the deck has more disclosure to give you a clearer view of the underlying business performance. We'll be highlighting pro forma results in constant currency as we did in the Q3 update. We're doing this because it strips away the noise of foreign exchange movements and the timing of acquisitions. There are 4 reconciliations in the appendix of the deck. There is additional information on ROIC trends and growth and margin expectations for relevant business segments, and I hope that you'll find it clear and useful. I'll start on Page 4, 2020 results summary. And I'd like to make 3 key points today. Firstly, we're pleased to deliver results ahead of the guidance that we reinstated on November 4. At that time, we expected segment profit for the year on a constant currency basis and excluding the impact of OneVue to be around $152 million, at the same level as in 2019. We had a good fourth quarter since then, and segment profit on the same basis as that guidance was $154.4 million for the year, exceeding guidance by 1.6%. Pro forma revenue for the group was up 2%. Pro forma net profit was up 7%, and pro forma ROIC was 10%. Secondly, these results reflect strong performance in our Australian business and returns on growth investments. I call this out because in the past, IRESS's group results have been diluted by investments in growth, in scale and product development as well as by acquisitions. I'm pleased to report our Australian business is performing well, delivering 8% organic revenue growth in Australian Advice & Super. We are also seeing margin improvements in a number of our growth investments. You can see this in QuantHouse, for example. Last year, on a full year basis, it reported a loss of $2.3 million, and this year we turned it around and delivered a profit of $1.8 million. As the returns on growth investments improve with scale, we expect that they will enhance overall group margins and the return on invested capital. The mix is improving. Finally, we have a confident outlook. IRESS is growth focused, with 2021 set to be another year of profitable growth with improved returns. There is a lot of detail provided on Page 13, but in summary, our guidance for 2021 is for segment profit in constant currency to grow by 7% to 10% to $164 million to $168 million against pcp. We expect ROIC to be between 9% and 10%. Our guidance assumes organic growth of around 5% and a $6 million to $7 million profit contribution from OneVue. Again, we expect over 90% of our revenues to be recurring. Turning to Slide 7. In 2020, indeed we delivered what we set out to do. Overall and in the context of a challenging year, I'm pleased with our 2020 execution. We made good progress in executing on 7 of these 8 key priorities. We focused on controlling what we can control in this volatile environment. We completed the OneVue acquisition in November and have started the integration program. By combining the largest provider of adviser and trading software in Australia with the largest unlisted fund registry, we will offer seamless execution of investment advice from Xplan. We are getting on with offering a new wholesale investment infrastructure-as-a-service subscription offer that will support the $3 billion-plus pool that is spent in the administration of retail investments. We are making good progress in super admin, another one of our growth priorities. We're on track to deliver 2 key projects to clients in 2021. Our outsourced offer is materially more efficient and cheaper than in-house fund administration and other providers. It enables funds to focus on member experience. We are focused on growth and adding more clients in 2021. Another example of our execution is progress of our infrastructure to cloud. We migrated 1,000 clients to IRESS's cloud platform last year. This helps both our clients and IRESS. This transition of the infrastructure was performed seamlessly while all teams were remote. And in this digital and remote environment, we saw a 7x increase in the use of our client portal as advisers interacted with their clients online. We delivered on another important priority, to increase recurring revenue in our mortgage business in the U.K. Recurring revenue now makes up 46% of the business' total revenue, up from 31%. Our target is 75%, so there is more room for improvement, and we see a pathway there. More broadly in the U.K., the financial outcome was disappointing. You won't be surprised to hear that the pandemic has affected the implementation of projects there and new business development. Revenues were down 3% for the year on a constant currency basis, excluding the effect of acquisitions. But we did grow revenues in Private Wealth by 3% within that figure. We've reviewed our U.K. strategy in detail to confirm that revenues are mostly deferred rather than lost and the growth opportunity is sustained. Last year, we established a new role and appointment to Chief Commercial Officer for the group. His primary focus is clients and revenue. On Slide 10, we unpack our revenue track record. We showed on Slide 3 that the recurring revenue growth since 2015 has been 10% per annum. Here, we look at that growth in different ways. This slide addresses 2 key questions: Have we delivered growth organically? And secondly, have we added value to acquisitions? Overall, IRESS has grown total revenues by 9% per annum since 2016. And to explain, I'll start with the existing businesses. This is organic growth. It includes the businesses within IRESS prior to 2016, the blue box, Trading and Market Data, advice, our business in South Africa, Canada and in Asia. We've increased revenues organically by 5% per annum over the last 5 years. We've consistently grown the base. We also split out the revenue contribution from each of our main acquisitions since the date that they were acquired. There has been positive growth in each of these also. Our U.K. business has delivered revenue growth of 4% per annum and Superannuation 5% and QuantHouse 7% on a pro forma basis. Mortgages have seen the slowest growth at 1%. OneVue is the latest addition, and, as we've said previously, we expect to deliver strong growth in this business as we grow funds registry and launch infrastructure-as-a-service in 2021. Moving to Slide 11, we focus on margins. Investors' questions relating to margin have been exploring more detail on IRESS's operational gearing. What's happening to the margin in our core Australian business? And are we making an acceptable return on growth investments? This table shows contribution margins. Our strategy is to leverage our fixed costs to drive revenue growth. We spend 24% of group revenue on investing in our product and technology and looking to leverage this IP across multiple markets. We also make logical decisions on operations and corporate services to achieve the best outcome efficiently. These services cost 8% and 7% of revenue, respectively. The contribution margins shown here exclude these costs. So what has the track record been like? At the top of this table, we break out the contribution margin across our existing businesses in Australia, South Africa and Canada. These are businesses that have been owned by IRESS prior to '16. You can see that the contribution margin in Australia has remained consistently high for the last 5 years. In advice, the contribution margin increased in 2020, our priority is to maintain this impressive performance. The margins in our growth investments in the bottom half of this table are more mixed as they scale in our hands. They are below levels exhibited in the existing business, and we expect these margins to increase as we build scale. Contribution margin improvements we've been seeing in the U.K. over 2018 and '19 paused in 2020, reflecting the broader economic challenges and the pandemic. We expect these margins to continue improving as revenue growth returns. The contribution margin in mortgages has bounced around over the last few years depending on the commercial terms of nonrecurring revenues as we implement new advice. We expect margins to grow as the proportion of recurring revenue continues to increase. QuantHouse is a good news story, and you can see the improvement in contribution margin here, and it's a 9% increase last year. Super's margin declined in 2020, which reflects the level of project work as we pursue the super administration opportunity. And finally, the contribution from OneVue is 31%. This will be a drag on group margins in 2021, but we expect this to improve meaningfully as the business is integrated with IRESS and begins to scale. So the existing business is performing well, and we expect improvement across growth investments. I'll now hand over to John to take you through some more detail on the financials before I finish with our outlook for 2021 and beyond and some closing remarks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Harris, IRESS Limited - CFO [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Andrew. As Andrew has said, the first half of the deck is focusing on pro forma metrics, which remove the noise of acquisitions and FX and make the underlying performance of the business more transparent. Slide 17 to 21 contain more detail on reported results on a constant currency basis, movements in our operating costs, further information about cash and balance sheet. As you'll see on Slide 17, constant currency segment profit and NPAT are below the corresponding pro forma metrics due to the impact of acquisitions, including transaction costs associated with Onevue. The detailed reconciliation between reported results and pro forma is shown on pages 28 and 29 and 30 of the deck. IRESS also raised capital during 2020, in conjunction with the announcement of the OneVue acquisition, which impacted the EPS outcome for the year. As we said at the time, the capital raise reflected our conservative balance sheet stance during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic. Other than for this uncertainty, it is unlikely that we would have raised equity in 2020. The capital raise was also upsized to $175 million. This reflected conservative positioning at a point of uncertainty and an expectation that the volatile economic environment would flush out further M&A opportunities. This additional M&A capacity has not yet been deployed, but we continue to have a keen eye for opportunities to leverage the strength of our balance sheet, our software capability and the global team for the benefit of shareholders. This capital raise had the effect of reducing reported EPS by $0.018 per share in and ROIC by 3 percentage points, all else being equal. Slide 18 summarizes the financial performance by segment on a constant currency basis. As Andrew has said, we are happy with the growth we've seen in Australian Advice & Super during the year, where revenue was up 8% versus 2019. And along with the impact of acquisitions, it's the main driver of revenue growth in APAC, which was 10%. Growth in this segment reflects the underlying strength of our position in financial advice markets as well as, as we helped the industry adapt and transition following the home Royal Commission. As we have said previously, we see long-term opportunity for software in the Australian market, albeit with some heightened risk of half-on-half volatility in the short term. As expected, revenue in Financial Advice declined in the second half as some revenue normalized across different sized licensees. We expect this trend to continue into 2021. However, this does not reflect the change in market share with Xplan the clear advice and wealth platform of choice for advice groups. The focus of the super business in 2020 was on the implementations at ESS Super and Guild, which are expected to go live this year. 2020 revenue growth in super was driven by those projects. In the U.K., revenue excluding acquisitions was down 3% versus 2019, as Andrew has said, reflecting project and business development delays amidst COVID lockdowns. We remain confident of our opportunity in the U.K. and view the 2020 revenue performance as timing only. We are also excited to have completed the OneVue acquisition in November. This opens up a new growth opportunity for IRESS in a revenue pool of $3 billion-plus. We believe the combination of Xplan and OneVue's managed fund admin business provides a unique opportunity to bring automation and efficiency to the industry. Integration of OneVue has commenced and will be an important focus in '21. The guided corporate cost synergies of $3 million and integration costs of $7 million remain intact. On Slide 19, you will see the pro forma costs have been well controlled, increasing by 1% versus 2019. The largest increases in costs were within APAC to support the super admin growth opportunity and in product and technology, which you can think of as R&D. Slide 20 shows the progression of our cash position over the last year. The key metrics on this slide are cash conversion, which was very strong at 108%, and free cash flow of $114 million. As you can see on this slide, our largest single outflow other than the acquisition of OneVue was dividend payments to shareholders, which totaled $80.7 million. And finally, on Slide '21, you'll see that our level of debt remains very conservative. The dip in pro forma ROIC that you can see on this slide is driven by the 2020 capital raise, which I discussed earlier. And I'll also note our dividend payout ratio remained very high as we were able to generate the funding we need for investments in our product and technology through strong operating cash flows. I'll now hand back to Andrew. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, John. I'm now turning back to Slide 13. As I said at the beginning of the presentation, we have a positive growth outlook, and we're giving guidance today for the year ahead. We expect segment profit in 2021 to increase by between 7% and 10%. That's $164 million to $168 million in total. This guidance is in constant currency as usual. We're giving a high to low range in the guidance because segment profit is subject to the timing of client projects. And we can review that range as the year progresses. This guidance includes organic growth of $6 million to $9 million. The total contribution from OneVue is expected between $6 million and $7 million. We expect growth in Australian Financial Advice and Super to be low single digits. The restructuring of the industry is set to continue. This is positive longer term given the opportunity around unmet needs for advice, but it can create some movement between periods. For the first time, we're also tracking segment profit guidance down to EPS and ROIC. We're doing this because we understand that there are removing parts, such as D&A, that can make forecasting difficult. Compared to the $59 million in 2020, we expect reported net profit after tax to be between $56 million and $63 million. It's a small increase year-on-year based on the midpoint of that range. Reported EPS reflects the full year impact of the capital raise last year. The range here is $0.287 per share to a high of $0.32 per share. Our ROIC guidance is 9% to 10%. And as you know, the world is an uncertain place, and so things can clearly change. But we do want to share with you our view on growth, as we said today, and we'll update you should it change. So Slide 15 takes that analysis out further. And this slide lays out our financial expectations for each of the businesses over the next 3 to 5 years. We include expectations on organic revenue growth, margin trajectory and return on invested capital compared to the group average for each of these businesses and strategies. They're our growth rates from what should be considered a mid-cycle level. For example, they are not related to pandemic recovery periods, where growth rates may be faster than this cycle. I'll let you read the individual line items, but in summary, we expect IRESS overall to deliver around 5% to 10% per annum organic revenue growth with a modestly increasing margin driven by returns from growth investments and an increasing ROIC as we build scale in these areas of new business. Let me now make some summary comments. Turn to Page 26. Following a year of uncertainty and change, where is IRESS today? Overall, I see IRESS is well placed to grow. We've come through the last year well. The pandemic has made us more flexible. We've demonstrated efficiency, agility and innovation, and our growth opportunities are certainly intact. The execution of our strategies to leverage our technology, add more value to our clients and build scale across geographic markets will deliver profitable growth and improve returns. I want to thank you for dialing this morning. I'll now hand back to the operator to open the line for questions. Thank you. ================================================================================ Questions and Answers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bob Chen with Jpmorgan. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bob Chen, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Research Analyst [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Just a few questions for me. In terms of what's happening over there in the U.K., the sort of project delays that you're seeing, I mean, how should we sort of think about that over the next 12 months? Or are you seeing a little bit more of that activity coming back and some of those projects are been delayed? Are they sort of imminent to start? Or what's the outlook there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think it's best reflected in what we've seen in the second half. We had several -- well, during the onset of the pandemic in the first half, all mortgage products were withdrawn from the market, and we saw a very quick bounce back to those implementations in the second half. We note that revenue in Private Wealth has grown. We've also implemented one of the largest remuneration payment systems to our network in the U.K. just early this year. So things are certainly happening and decisions are being made. I think it's probably more a question at the rate of that. So we are seeing it steadily progress. I think it all goes to the confidence that people will have. I think that probably more than most, the progress that the U.K. has had in its vaccination regime leveraging the NHS has been pretty impressive. So should that continue, we expect the same in revenue. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bob Chen, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Research Analyst [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Great. And then just on the sort of super admin there. So you've got the 2 projects that you sort of expect to go live this year. What does the project pipeline look like from a sales perspective this year? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think the demand that exists in super for efficiency and focusing funds on what that member experience is, is very high. And there is a lot of activity in the pipeline. We are balancing that activity with ensuring that we have confident delivery in the ones that are underway as well. So we're confident of what that broader strategy looks like and being very measured in how we're approaching it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bob Chen, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Research Analyst [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And just on Xplan here in APAC (inaudible) . It looks like one of your U.K. competitors has started coming into the Aussie market as well. I mean is there any risk there that you might lose now some clients that way? And what would you do to sort of defend yourself, I guess? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, firstly, we welcome the competition. There's no real new news there. And I think the actual delivery of software and delivery of software that's relevant to advisers in this market amidst ongoing regulatory change is a significant challenge. So new competitors offshore aren't the only competitors in Australia. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bob Chen, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Research Analyst [8] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And then just the last one for me on OneVue. I'm wondering, how's the sort of integration of that sort of business going? And when do you expect to sort of fully launch onto the OneVue platform as well? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [9] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's going well. We have been very focused on what our 90-day goals have been. We're preparing for a rebrand of the OneVue business to IRESS in the beginning of March. We have lots of teams that have started to organize themselves around how IRESS operates. We -- as we said in Q3, we have 2 primary objectives in the short term. The first is to integrate Xplan to the OneVue platform, which is underway, and the second is to launch our infrastructure-as-a-service that will occur in '21, likely late '21. But the meaningful impact to those that use both Xplan and OneVue today is certainly that connectivity from Xplan to OneVue. In addition to that, we are also very, very focused on growth of the unit registry in our hands, and we've announced some managers making decisions to move to that registry, and we have others that have successfully completed transitions from other registries. And so we're very positive about what that opportunity is to grow relationships we have with custodians and fund managers to augment what sits in that registry. We are pressing on with initiatives such as quoted managed funds or quoted unlisted managed funds and other opportunities that go to more efficiency for those clients. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [10] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Scott Hudson with MST. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [11] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A couple of quick questions. Firstly, just in terms of the guidance, can you give me a sense of what -- I guess what proportion of capitalized development -- or what proportion of OneVue development costs will be capitalized in calendar year 21? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Harris, IRESS Limited - CFO [12] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's about the same as though capitalizing prior to our ownership, Scott. So we would expect that to change as those technology teams that integrated into IRESS's way of working. But for the time being, they'll continue on the trajectory that they had prior to IRESS acquiring OneVue. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [13] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And can you tell me what the number -- the absolute numbers? Is it just... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Harris, IRESS Limited - CFO [14] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Oh, it was around $4 million to $5 million, Scott, you'll see that in the disclosures, the June '20 disclosures. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [15] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And I guess the -- how long before you think you'll be able to -- before you'll be -- I guess that will go into the P&L as opposed to the balance sheet? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Harris, IRESS Limited - CFO [16] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think we'll start to see that in 2022. We'll go through the integration activities during the course of this year. It probably won't all happen on one day. We'll migrate different teams at different times. And once they're on that IRESS way of working or way of building and deploying software, we'll start to see that accounting treatment alone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [17] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Give me an update on the JV we -- I guess, deployment? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [18] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's going well, and we're seeing good outcomes for advisers and investment advisers to be able to operate client workflow and portfolio and trading workflow from one desktop. The important stage is that we have that operating now. As we have more advisers evolve onto that new platform, that there are certainly other opportunities to consolidate workflow and other systems to improve that experience. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [19] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And then in terms of, I guess, the OneVue sort of product offering or the integration of the OneVue product offering, what sort of levels of discussions have you had with the existing client base? And what's the general feedback been? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [20] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's been positive both from fund managers that see the relevance of connected distribution and the potential for much faster innovation in products and deployment distribution in the market. The -- from the advice side, it goes directly to the efficiency of how they operate, how they can do more with the same or do more with less and how future-ready propositions can be made so that advisers of all types can address unmet advice needs in Australia. So it has -- it fell on welcoming ears, Scott, and the first stage will be very real for those that are users of Xplan and OneVue. And we think that, that will be compelling to those that don't have that kind of connectivity in the market today, and that's the kind of feedback that we've received. I think that there are more opportunities from that when we evolve what that looks like in full later in this year, but it's been pleasing for how differentiated we're approaching this in the market today. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scott Lyndon Hudson, MST Marquee - Senior Research Analyst [21] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Great. And then in terms of the, I guess, the U.K. landscape, do I read your comments correctly that the decisions or the, I guess, the sales pipeline is maybe a little bit more extended at the moment than it has been historically? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [22] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We've seen decisions not happen in the time frame we would have expected at the beginning of 2020. And they haven't gone away. Those needs remain. The decisions remain to be made, but that's not all of them. And there have been a number of decisions that have been made by clients to change software, replace software, get on with their plans. And some of those have been significant. And for example, Old Mutual has transitioned its own platform wares and has deployed [COMPAY] for its entire network over the course of the start of this year, and I think that they will -- those kinds of decisions will continue. And we've spoken in the past about how the political stratosphere is quite disconnected from the reality of business decisions, and that continues to be true amidst this pandemic. Despite a lockdown still in the U.K., the vaccine program has been pretty impressive and I believe will create some buoyancy for the U.K. to come out with some level of confidence. And so I -- while that continues, I expect that these decisions will follow. But it will be wrong to conclude that there are no positively geared business decisions being made by our client base in the U.K. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [23] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Walsh for closing remarks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Leslie Walsh, IRESS Limited - MD, CEO & Director [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Great. Thank you. So in summary, we're certainly pleased that we've not only met our reinstated guidance but exceeded it with strong results in the last quarter last year. We are confident in where we are positioned, particularly how we have demonstrated resilience through the period of the pandemic in 2020 and may that continue. And the business is positioned with strength and well for ongoing performance and returns on the investments that we've made in select targets. We're also pleased that we present the short-term outlook for 2021 with confidence and ongoing positive returns, and we look forward to talking about what the medium-term profile of those investments looks like to investors in the medium term. So I expect I'll be catching up with you with John in the coming days and look forward to unpacking that result and the future on growth. Thank you.