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Edited Transcript of KTCC.OQ earnings conference call or presentation 28-Apr-20 9:00pm GMT

·39 min read

Q3 2020 Key Tronic Corp Earnings Call SPOKANE Jun 15, 2020 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Key Tronic Corp earnings conference call or presentation Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 9:00:00pm GMT TEXT version of Transcript ================================================================================ Corporate Participants ================================================================================ * Brett R. Larsen Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer * Craig D. Gates Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director ================================================================================ Conference Call Participants ================================================================================ * Michael E. Hughes SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager * William J. Dezellem Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer ================================================================================ Presentation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good day and welcome to the Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2020 Key Tronic Corporation Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Brett Larsen. Please go ahead, sir. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good afternoon, everyone. I am Brett Larsen, Chief Financial Officer of Key Tronic. I would like to thank everyone for joining us today for our investor conference call. Joining me here in the Spokane Valley headquarters is Craig Gates, our President and Chief Executive Officer. As always, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we might make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the company's future financial performance. Please remember that such statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially. For more information, you may review the risk factors outlined in the documents the company has filed with the SEC, specifically our latest 10-K, quarterly 10-Qs and 8-Ks. Please note that on this call, we will discuss historical financial and other statistical information regarding our business and operations. Some of this information is included in todays' press release, and a recorded version of this call will be available on our website. I hope all of you and your families are healthy and safe. And before we start our normal quarterly results review, I would first like to turn some time over to Craig to talk about the topic on everybody's mind, which is the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on Key Tronic. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Thanks, Brett. These are unprecedented and challenging times, and this pandemic affects all of us. I have been humbled by the stalwart dedication of Key Tronic employees as we work to manage through this crisis. Our first focus at Key Tronic continues to be to ensure as best we can that our employees and their families stay safe. Within the constraints of our efforts to keep everyone at Key Tronic healthy, we're doing our best to maintain production in all of our facilities. We have been taking and will continue to take precautionary measures to limit the risk on our most vulnerable, and many of our nonmanufacturing employees now work for home, and travel is restricted. We have implemented all recommended safety measures in our manufacturing facilities. This includes full-time wearing of face masks and face shields, workstation arrangements to provide social distancing, temperature monitoring, enhanced work site disinfections, spacing in cafeterias and break areas, contact management and more. Last week, we experienced a temporary shutdown affecting our Mexico facilities, but due to successfully petitioning the Mexican government this past weekend, we began reopening our facilities today. We expect to have operations back to near-normal by the end of this week. However, we expect additional challenges with absenteeism, keeping vulnerable employees at home, transportation complexities and disruptions to our supply chain that we will need to manage in the coming days. Some of our suppliers have experienced temporary closures resulting from governmental lockdown and shelter-in-place orders. At this stage, we have either been able to work around these temporary disruptions, or closures have been resolved. We are managing risk via alternative sourcing, airfreight, product redesigns and alternate component qualifications. We are closely monitoring the status and will use safety stock as much as possible to ensure minimum interruptions. At this point in time, we've been able to find solutions for most of these challenges. Regarding customer demand, our portfolio of health care products has seen an unprecedented upside, while our gaming customers have seen an unprecedented decrease. So far, the net effect of all the puts and takes has been positive. Of course, the drastic changes in demand come with their own challenges. And I will discuss more on this later after Brett reviews the third quarter results. Brett? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Craig. Today, we released our results for the quarter ended March 28, 2020. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2020, we reported total revenue of $111.5 million, up from $108 million in the same period of fiscal year 2019. For the first 9 months of fiscal year 2020, total revenue was $333.5 million compared to $358.5 million in the same period of fiscal year 2019. As previously announced, the lower-than-anticipated revenue and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2020 is primarily a result of disruptions to supply chains in China caused by the COVID-19 crisis, which delayed the arrival of key components. We have seen most of these China suppliers come back online for production in the recent weeks. Despite the unanticipated revenue shortfall, our margins increased. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2020, gross margin was 8.3%, and operating margin was 1.6%, up from gross margin of 6.3% and an operating loss of 11.6% in the same period of fiscal year 2019. As we've discussed previously, we've made significant improvements in our operating efficiencies in recent quarters through investments in new equipment. Several of these investments were made in the metals area. And during the third quarter, these investments began to pay off. The new equipment, combined with the completion of production ramps of several new metals programs, led us to expect our margins to improve in the coming periods. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2020, net income was $0.9 million or $0.08 per share, up from a net loss of $12 million or a loss of $1.11 per share for the same period of fiscal year 2019. For the first 9 months of fiscal year 2020, net income was $3.3 million or $0.30 per share, up from a net loss of $8.8 million or a loss of $0.82 per share for the same period of fiscal year 2019. Note that the earnings in the third quarter of 2020 were impacted -- actually, to note that the earnings in the third quarter of 2020 were impacted by a write-down of $0.6 million of -- $600,000 of receivables from a customer that was further negatively impacted by the pandemic, decreasing our reported earnings per share by approximately $0.04 per share. Excluding the goodwill and intangible write-down during the third quarter of fiscal year 2019, the company would have been breakeven for the third quarter of fiscal year 2019 and reported net income of $3.1 million or $0.29 per share for the first 9 months of fiscal year 2019. Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to maintain a strong financial position. As a result of the component shortages and production delays in the third quarter and the continued ramp and transfers of new programs, we did see a sequential increase in our inventory, including revenue recognition contract assets by $4.5 million or 3.6% from the prior quarter. In future quarters, we expect to see our net inventory levels be impacted as we respond to dramatic shifts in demand. Although we have a healthy balance sheet as well as flexibility in available bank debt, we feel it is prudent to preserve cash where possible should the pandemic continue for an extended period of time, not just for our own operations but also in order to be able to support our suppliers as best we can in these extraordinary circumstances. In this light, we have increased our bank line of credit to $65 million and are pursuing additional debt capacity that should close by the end of this fiscal year to give us more flexibility to ramp up production in the coming months. At the end of the third quarter, trade receivables were up $7.1 million from the prior period, reflecting that we no longer are factoring our receivables due to the increased loan capacity, and DSOs increased to about 60 days. Total capital expenditures in the third quarter of fiscal year 2020 were approximately $0.6 million. We'll continue to invest in production facilities, SMT equipment and sheet metal and plastic molding capabilities as well improvements in our facilities just at a slower pace than originally forecasted. We plan to make a total of approximately $7.5 million in capital expenditures during fiscal year 2020. While there is a significant demand across much of our customer base, we've lost at least 10 days of production during the fourth quarter as we ramp our Juarez facilities back up after the temporary closure. Given the rapidly changing COVID-19 environment, including uncertainty over the possibility of potential facility closures, potential supply chain disruptions and predicting customer demand and associated costs of following health care guidelines, we're unable to provide specific guidance for the fourth quarter at this time. In summary, while the COVID-19 crisis caused disruptions to our supply chain in the third quarter and remains a risk in future periods, we remain encouraged by our prospects for future growth over the longer term. The overall financial health of the company is strong, and we believe that we are well positioned to win new EMS programs and continue to profitably expand our business over the longer term. That's it for me. Craig? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Thanks, Brett. Let me first comment on how our business was progressing in the third quarter before commenting on the current uncertainty in the fourth quarter. Despite the COVID crisis, our demand for many customers remained strong in the third quarter, and some customers have even significantly increased their demand, including programs for home consumer products, health care and home exercise equipment. We also have new programs producing personal respirators, and we're in discussions with potential programs for ventilator manufacturing driven by the growing global need for these critical health care products. Furthermore, as a result of the pandemic's impact on China production as well as uncertainty over tariffs and trade tension between the U.S. and China, a growing number of existing and new customers appear to be accelerating their plans to transition from China facilities to our expanding facilities in Mexico, Vietnam and the U.S. As we've discussed before, we see it as a very positive trend over the longer term. During the third quarter, a number of our customers were experiencing a positive transition of their business out of China facilities, which was facilitated by our centralized command-and-control. This centralization drastically reduces the risk and time associated with the transfer to our North American and Vietnam sites and thus allow us some leeway to respond to the rapidly changing political and health landscape. While we are carefully managing our expenses, we have been preparing for growth in the coming periods. During fiscal 2020, we have continued to invest in our facilities, including the expansion of SMT, sheet metal and plastic molding capabilities in Mexico and the U.S. With respect to integrated electronics and sheet metal-centric programs, we see very strong growth and few real competitors of our size in North America. We also deployed innovative new manufacturing equipment in each of our facilities, which has improved efficiencies and has made our production less labor-intensive. The result of this effort has been decreased manufacturing and operating expenses of approximately $3 million annually. This investment had made us increasingly well positioned for the returning tide in North American-based customers as they appropriately analyze the total costs for overseas production and, as a result, pushed production back into both Mexico and the States. Additionally, we are continuing to ramp production in our new 86,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Vietnam to augment our Asian footprint and reduce production costs as well as provide an additional hedge against uncertainty with respect to COVID-related disruptions to China production as well as lingering future trade war with China. While our marketplace remains very competitive, we continue to win significant new business, both from EMS competitors and existing customers. During the third quarter of fiscal 2020, we won new programs involving consumer products, personal safety equipment and home exercise equipment, one of which, when fully ramped, is anticipated to contribute $100 million in annual revenue and is beginning production in the next few weeks. Our broader and more diversified customer base lowers the potential future impact of a slowdown by any one customer. Our pipeline of new business opportunities continues to be boosted by our unmatched level of vertical integration, our multi-country footprint and the excellence of our manufacturing sites in comparison to other EMS competitors of our size. As OEMs face an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape, we are uniquely equipped to offer risk mitigation with our vertical integration and manufacturing facilities located in Mexico, Vietnam and the States. While the third quarter was very promising, there's a lot of uncertainty about the fourth quarter. While we are extremely pleased that our health care products are experiencing an unprecedented level of demand, the costs and risks associated with meeting that demand are [a legion]. Additionally, the business opportunities resulting from our new customers come with the normal challenges of drastic ramps, which become far more challenging than normal when they are forced into a COVID-19 environment. Finally, while we are only slightly exposed to the oil exploration market, that market downturn, along with gaming, presents inventory and scheduling issues that are more or less business as usual until the effects of COVID-19 are factored into the equation. Currently, our China facilities appear to be returning to full operation, and the supply chain disruptions have been abating. Our facilities in Juarez are resuming operations, and our facilities in the U.S. and Vietnam continue to operate normally with a focus on protecting the health of our employees by adhering to current health guidelines in all facilities. We continue to invest in new capacity and remain optimistic about our long-term opportunities for growth. Nevertheless, as Brett noted, the rapidly changing COVID environment makes it impossible to provide any clear guidance for the fourth quarter right now. We will try to update you as soon as possible. In closing, I want to thank all of our great employees for their hard work and dedication during these challenging times and for adhering to our strict safety and health guidelines and other recommended precautions during the pandemic. Let me assure you that we will continue to make protecting the health of our employees our highest priority. I also want to wish you and your families good health and safe passage during the pandemic. This concludes the formal portion of our presentation. Brett and I will now be pleased to answer your questions. ================================================================================ Questions and Answers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) And we'll go first to Bill Dezellem with Tieton Capital. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'll start with my normal first question. Would you please walk through the size of each of the 3 new customers in the order that you've listed in there in the press release? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What order did I listed them? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal safety equipment, consumer... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $6 million, $8 million and $100 million. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And let's talk about the $100 million, if you would, please. What insights can you share there in terms of why you were chosen? And then also, it seems as though the ramp is happening much sooner than would be typical, if it was won here in this quarter and ramping in the next few weeks. Can you talk through those dynamics, please? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We've been in discussions with this new customer for over a year. They chose us for a number of reasons. First of all, the fact that we have metals and assembly in Mexico was key. Secondly, that we have production in Mexico and the States. We're actually going to begin and probably run for the first 9 to 12 months in our Corinth, Mississippi facility. And then as a second-generation product comes online, move down to Mexico, probably. Third, our design capabilities were heavily involved during the quote process, and we actually did a more or less complete redesign of the product during the quote process in order to get the new generation into the cost constraints that we need to hit. So those were the 3 biggies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [8] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That's helpful, Craig. So the Mississippi facility is where the product is going to start. What would you anticipate -- let's just take the December quarter. What would you anticipate revenues to roughly be if the ramp schedule goes according to plan? And I recognize that in this environment, nothing goes according to plan, it seems. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [9] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, including the fact that you plan on me answering that question. So I'm going to say no comment on that because there are way too many unknowns. I can tell you it's going to be a very sudden ramp. Other than that, I don't want to make any commitments or numbers. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [10] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All right. That's fair. So Craig, why is this customer ramping so quickly compared to others? And maybe it's the obvious answer that with people at home, they want to get home exercise equipment on the market quickly, but talk through it, if you would. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [11] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, the obvious answer is right. They were already running at, I'd say, I don't know, 2/3 of that rate currently and have demand that they were unable to fulfill. So the ramp is made more urgent by the fact that their market is, of course, exploded with people stuck at home and not able to go to the gym. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [12] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Are they keeping their existing form of production and adding you? Or are you replacing the current production? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [13] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm going to no comment that one, too. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [14] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Like I said, nothing is going according to plan these days. I planned on you answering that question. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [15] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorry. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [16] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That's all right. No problem. So let me move on, if I may. What are you seeing in terms of the pace of new customers making decisions? I guess I have a lot of different thoughts at what could be happening, but I'd like to hear what you're experiencing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [17] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd say on the whole, a lot of programs that have been hanging fire have suddenly made the decision to come with us. A lot of people that were feeling that, "Gee, our production situation today is kind of risky, and we should be looking around," have suddenly come to a conclusion that, "Gee, our production situation is really risky, and we need to make a move now before we get tanked." We got a couple of people whose existing manufacturing partners basically shut down and kicked them out. We've had other people whose products have just had dramatic increases in demand, and that begs the question of should they have to source stable manufacturers being moot. It's clear they need to have it. So it's kind of a 2-part answer to your question because everything that we had in the works that had been quoted ones that it would seem to people seems to be going faster, but putting new opportunities into the pipeline is going a lot slower because nobody is making visits and nobody's taking part of the normal sales process. So it's a split answer to your question. The stuff that was at least in the funnel is going a lot faster, but there is a lot less new products and new opportunities coming into the funnel than there was before. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [18] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, I suppose you don't need many new opportunities coming with the $100 million piece of business falling in. Let me hit with a couple of other questions tied to your answer. One, you've mentioned that some of the prospective customers that are coming to you have had their production shut down. Is that because of governmental regulations at their location where they were producing? Or is that a function of the supplier going out of business and no longer in existence? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [19] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So at least one was due to a government-forced shutdown in California. Others have been due to supply chain disruptions. And others have been to -- due to government-forced shutdowns in foreign countries. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [20] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Understood. And relative to supply chain disruptions, what should or would your revenues have been this quarter had you had normal component availability? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [21] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Probably about... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [22] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $115 million. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [23] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $115 million to $116 million, something like that. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [25] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Great. I have a few other good questions. I'll let others ask, and then I'll come back. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [26] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [27] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) We'll go next to Mike Hughes with SGF Capital. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [28] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Back on the $100 million piece of business, can you just talk about the start-up costs associated with ramping that? Will they be higher than your typical project because it's going to ramp so quickly? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [29] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's actually, right now, looking like it will be lower than our typical fraction. It's a -- it should be a pretty quick ramp. There isn't any inventing that we have to do, which is normally where the money ends up being spent. And it's not hugely labor-intensive. So all 3 of those things lead us to believe it should be reasonable rather than outrageous. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [30] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It fits within our current capacity. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [31] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [32] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So do you think it'll have a positive contribution margin in the June quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [33] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Slightly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [34] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And given it's a larger piece of business, should we assume the gross margins are a little bit lower than the target that you've talked about historically? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [35] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm sure our new customer is listening, and I want them to hear our margins are awful, and we negotiated down to a horrible situation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [36] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, how important was price in winning the business? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [37] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price is very important and forced a significant redesign effort from my design team in order to get to that price. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [38] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And I understand you're not giving guidance at this point, but 3 weeks ago, you provided a range for the June quarter of $120 million to $130 million. At that time, did that include this $100 million win? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [39] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [40] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Did you say no? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [41] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I said no. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [42] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wow. Okay. That's impressive. Next question, the peso, I think, is moving the right way for you now. What's the impact? And just maybe if you could just talk about your hedging that you have in place. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [43] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sure. We typically run with about 3 years' worth of hedged -- futures on hedge contracts against the peso, but we're typically only about 60% hedged. So the weakness in peso definitely will help us in coming quarters, but the hedges that were in play, of course, will limit that amount of gain. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [44] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I apologize. What would limit the gain? I apologize. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [45] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The fact that we already had hedges in place. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [46] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Right. Right. Right. And then can you just talk about what you've experienced as far as AR collections over just the last few weeks? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [47] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There have been a few customers that have slowed down their payment process. As I mentioned earlier, we did write off $600,000 in last quarter related to a customer that we've been trying to collect for some time. But other than just a few minor -- a few of our suppliers slowing down their payment process... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [48] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Customers. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [49] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Customers, sorry, there hasn't been a whole lot of concern to date. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [50] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And remind me, what was your experience 2008, '09 and '10? Did you have much in a way of bad debt? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [51] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [52] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And then just a question on vertical exposure. Do you have any exposure to automotive or aerospace? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [53] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have none to automotive. We have none to commercial aerospace, which I'm assuming is your question. We have some and growing to private aerospace, and that's actually doing really well right now. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [54] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When you say private aerospace, can you just define what that means? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [55] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Private aviation, guys lying around in their Cessnas. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [56] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. I would assume that, that will soften over the next few quarters. What's your exposure there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [57] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's limited. Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [58] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's limited. Not big. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [59] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [60] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Okay. All right. So when you gave the guidance, the midpoint was $125 million. That excluded the $25 million from the new program, which would take you to $150 million. What are the cyclical pieces of the business that you are concerned about that could pull back over the next few quarters? I'm just trying to think out a few quarters, what the revenue could look like, and I know you're not giving guidance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [61] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, a big portion of that rosy forecast is due to the fact that the health care products are really, really strong demand right now. So if there's a -- and I hope this is right, if there's a sudden cure to the COVID virus, I would see those beginning to drop again. I don't think it will be a sudden drop if it does happen because we've dug such a hole in the -- at our customers' inventory position that it would take us months to refill their inventories to levels they want them to be at. We have other customers that aren't in health care, aren't in gaming, are in, I guess, you would call it a widely diverse group of commercial customers that we can't really predict which way they're going to go, which is why we're not giving guidance. So for example, some of our HVAC guys are cutting guidance right now. Some of our industrial lighting guys are cutting their guidance. Our server farm guys are cutting guidance a little bit. And it just goes on and on and on. It's -- you can't really make any general conclusions about it, which is why we don't feel we can make any kind of a projection. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [62] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. So last question for you. And I know this guidance, it's what you gave out a few weeks ago, the $120 million to $130 million. The -- in putting aside the big $100 million win, the dialogue with the customers since you put that number out has been negative on a whole were that number would have been potentially lower? Or is that incorrect? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [63] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, I think you're kind of playing 20 questions with me like Bill does. I'm not real smart, but I'm smart not to answer that one. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [64] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We'll take a follow-up from Bill Dezellem with Tieton Capital. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [65] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I might be insulted. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [66] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. That's an honor, Bill. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [67] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I got it wrong again. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [68] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [69] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So maybe I'll pick up where we just left off, just to have some fun with this. What's different today than when you did give that Q4 guidance earlier? And maybe you just highlighted it with that list of customers that's starting to pull in their forecast with you. But can you address this, I guess, a little more head-on and what's different today? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [70] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What's different today versus 2.5, 3 weeks ago is mainly that we've seen a higher degree of variability in all of our customers' forecasts. And from quarters that -- not quarters, but from directions that we didn't expect. So a customer that we thought was pretty rock-solid suddenly has got issues with demand. And because of all these $2 million here, $2 million there, pretty soon, you're not $125 million, you're not $130 million. On the other hand, you got people calling in and saying, I will take everything you could build me and go find me parts, and we don't know if we're going to be able to find parts. So it's the standard deviation of each revenue forecast out of each customer has increased dramatically over the last 3.5 weeks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [71] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And plus, you have the downtime in Mexico, which you did not anticipate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [72] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [73] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [74] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And how much of -- the $100 million customer, what level of revenue are you currently anticipating in this quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [75] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [76] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this quarter. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [77] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Very little. We'll just barely be getting them started. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [78] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. That's helpful. And so I'm going to try to uphold my reputation here. So if we were to think about broadening the range from that $120 million to $130 million and add $10 million on either side and say $110 million to $140 million, does that put you within the realm of that widened variability that you're thinking is possible? Or is it even beyond that? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [79] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No comment, Bill. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [80] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reputation upheld. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [81] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [82] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. I do want to actually -- in all seriousness, pick up on something that I think, Brett, that you had mentioned in your opening remarks. And I just want to make sure I heard you correctly that you do expect margin improvement in the coming quarters. Is that what you said? And if so, does that apply to this quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [83] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. There was a reason it was in coming quarters as we definitely see that, mid- to long term, it's tough to come up with a finite number for this fourth quarter just due to all of the different risks that we've already talked about. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [84] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Just the issues that Craig and I were just bantering about are going to affect that favorably or unfavorably. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [85] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well, we were just talking about revenue. On the cost side, there's a lot of uncertainty also. We don't know what type of attendance we're going to have in the facilities. We don't know what kind of over time we're going to have to pay to try to catch up for what we missed during this 10-day down. We don't know how many buses we're going to have to contract with so that we can get every person on a bus 6-foot away from the next person. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [86] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Much more airfreight. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [87] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Much more airfreight we're going to have to pay. We don't know what the airfreight guys are going to continue to rape us on. It's up to 3x what they were charging for a container before. It's just everywhere you look, the world is kind of unpredictable. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [88] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And to what degree with these increase in costs are those absorbed by your customer? And how much do you need to absorb? Or is that a negotiation with each customer? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [89] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. We'd like to call it a negotiation because we live in a civilized world, but that's not what it feels like. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [90] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And then, I guess, one additional question, if I may. The tax rate was a bit lower than what you had originally anticipated. What went into that? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [91] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think it was just basically some true-ups of the research and development credits that we anticipate for this year. Over the longer term, we're still expecting somewhere between 15% and 20% effective tax rate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- William J. Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management, LLC - President, CIO & Chief Compliance Officer [92] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Great. All right. Congratulations on a pretty solid quarter considering the dynamic situation we're in, and we look forward to hearing your guidance when you have it. Actually, I do have one additional question, if I may. The shutdown in Mexico that you did have, is it a correct assumption that it is better that it happened early in the quarter, meaning the first month of the quarter, than had it happened later in the quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [93] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes, you are entirely correct. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [94] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) We'll go next to Mike Hughes with SGF Capital. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [95] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Just a few follow-up questions for you. Just on the potential of the ventilator program, is the complexity of that product an issue? Or are there products right now that you manufacture that just as complex or if not more so? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [96] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The second. It's more a question of demand than it is complexity. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [97] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [98] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you look at all the press, it's everything that all the politicians have said. And then you read deeper into it and you read what Mr. Cuomo had said, nobody went without. And you look at the current situation with a hospital sitting empty in many places, as far as we can tell, the shortage of ventilators was more panic than a fact. And then when you add in there the fact that the government paid the automotive guys to build another -- I forgot what the number is, 50,000, 60,000, I think this was all basically just political ire. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [99] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Okay. And then I've read a little bit of the press out of Mexico. Some of the workers don't want to come back, not specific to your facilities, but they're worried about their personal safety. So can you just -- when did -- is it open back up as of today? Just talk about that issue and that process. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [100] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sure. The -- I guess, first of all, to frame it properly, the closure had nothing to do with our employees being concerned about their safety. It had to do with the state of Chihuahua interpreting a decree, I guess, somewhat differently than the other states, which is the same thing that happened in the U.S., and a lot of discussions about what are the products we made, not whether the products we made were essential but whether they ended up in Mexico. And that was what caused the closure. To date, we've had 2 confirmed cases out of an employee base of 3,600 people... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [101] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In Mexico. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [102] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In Mexico. So the closure wasn't based on any concerns that our employees had. It was based on a decree. Our employees are concerned. We are concerned. We have taken great pains to go above and beyond the recommended safety procedures for manufacturing sites. We even read some data that says that the virus half-life on an inanimate surface is dramatically decreased at elevated temperatures, and that breakover point is about 76, 77 degrees. So we turned up the temperature in the factories. We're running them at close to 80. We are working with our employees. Anytime there's a safety issue that comes up, we move to remedy it. And I mean that's about all I can say. It's scary. It's scary everywhere. The numbers in Juarez though, compared to New York or another hotspot, are small. I think the total number in Juarez is 200 infections right now, total in a city of about 1.6 million to 1.8 million. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [103] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. So it sounds like you've done a very good job there. I just -- I wasn't referring to your company. I just see some other companies were having issues with workers. So you do not anticipate any issues as far as staffing that facility. You're saying your workers are well protected. They didn't have any specific issues. So staffing should not be an issue. Is that fair? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [104] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. That's not what I said. I do not think that I can say I don't anticipate issues. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [105] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [106] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What I said is that we've taken every possible precaution and then some to help ensure that we don't have issues, but I can't guarantee that we're not going to have issues. A big part of what's happening in Juarez is that a company had a team from Germany fly in and do some engineering work on the factory floor, and half of the cases in Juarez came from that one factory. But again, I can't say that I don't anticipate any issues because just about everything that can happen bad is happening. So we're doing everything. Okay. All right. Good enough. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [107] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Appreciate the insight. One last question. How many customers are currently utilizing your facility in China? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [108] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In China? It's probably about 10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [109] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [110] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. About 10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [111] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Is that kind of consistent with the December quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [112] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's actually grown by a couple. It's been surprising that there have been -- there's been a, let's say, a fit of logic has been happening amongst our customer base where products that end up being sold in North America are being moved to production in North America and products that are being consumed in China are being moved to production in China. And our Chinese facility, which I was really worried about a couple of quarters ago, is still in the black and actually adding customers. So we're pretty happy about that. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [113] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. That's good to hear. And then what about -- just to close the loop, what about the Vietnam facility? Did that generate more revenue in the March quarter than the December quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [114] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. We continue to ramp the cornerstone customer of that facility, and that is an example of an unfortunate where I was talking to Bill earlier about a hollowing out of the front of the funnel for new business. There were -- must be 6 or 7 trips to Vietnam with customers planned that were either the last or next to last trip in the sequence of things that happen when you add a customer. And those trips have all been put on hold. So Vietnam is going to reach a plateau with their cornerstone customer and then sit there for a while until we can resume the normal business travel that you have to have, to have people at a new facility. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Michael E. Hughes, SGF Capital Management, LP - Principal & Portfolio Manager [115] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. And I had read that -- this is not specific to you, but I had read that other manufacturers staff their manufacturing facilities in Vietnam often with Chinese labor. Is that the case with your facility? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brett R. Larsen, Key Tronic Corporation - Executive VP of Administration, CFO & Treasurer [116] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [117] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [118] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And with no further questions in queue, I'd like to turn it back to management for any additional or closing remarks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Craig D. Gates, Key Tronic Corporation - President, CEO & Director [119] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. Brett and I look forward to speaking with you again in better days. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [120] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.