U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    +73.47 (+1.95%)
  • Dow 30

    +572.16 (+1.85%)
  • Nasdaq

    +196.68 (+1.55%)
  • Russell 2000

    +45.29 (+2.11%)
  • Crude Oil

    +2.45 (+3.84%)
  • Gold

    -2.50 (-0.15%)
  • Silver

    -0.17 (-0.65%)

    -0.0054 (-0.45%)
  • 10-Yr Bond

    +0.0040 (+0.26%)

    -0.0067 (-0.48%)

    +0.2690 (+0.25%)

    +599.12 (+1.23%)
  • CMC Crypto 200

    +39.75 (+4.21%)
  • FTSE 100

    -20.36 (-0.31%)
  • Nikkei 225

    -65.78 (-0.23%)

Edited Transcript of NVST.N earnings conference call or presentation 10-Feb-21 10:00pm GMT

·43 min read

Q4 2020 Envista Holdings Corp Earnings Call Feb 11, 2021 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Envista Holdings Corp earnings conference call or presentation Wednesday, February 10, 2021 at 10:00:00pm GMT TEXT version of Transcript ================================================================================ Corporate Participants ================================================================================ * Amir Aghdaei Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director * Howard H. Yu Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO * John Bedford Envista Holdings Corporation - VP of IR ================================================================================ Conference Call Participants ================================================================================ * Brandon Couillard Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst * Elizabeth Hammell Anderson Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division - Associate * Erin Elizabeth Wilson Wright Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst * Jeffrey D. Johnson Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division - Senior Research Analyst * Jonathan David Block Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst * Nathan Allen Rich Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division - Research Analyst * Stephen Christopher Beuchaw Wolfe Research, LLC - Director of Equity Research ================================================================================ Presentation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My name is Erica, and I will be your conference facilitator this afternoon. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Envista Holdings Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mr. John Bedford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Bedford, you may begin your conference. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Bedford, Envista Holdings Corporation - VP of IR [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Erica. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us on the call. With us today are Amir Aghdaei, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Howard Yu, our Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call and the reconciliations and other information required by SEC Regulation G relating to any non-GAAP financial measures provided during the call are all available on the Investors section of our website, www.envistaco.com. The audio portion of this call will be archived on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations and will remain archived until our next quarterly call. During the presentation, we will describe some of the more significant factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Supplemental materials describe additional factors that impacted year-over-year performance. Unless otherwise noted, all references in these remarks and supplemental materials to company-specific financial metrics relate to the fourth quarter of 2020 and all references to period-to-period increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year. We may also describe certain products and devices, which have applications submitted and pending for certain regulatory approvals or are available only in certain markets. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our SEC filings, and actual results might differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Amir. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, John, and welcome, everyone, to Envista's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. Before discussing our results, I wanted to start by reflecting what has truly been a historic year. While this has been a challenging 12 months in many ways, we have successfully navigated through by keeping our customers at the center of all that we do. This is one of Envista's 5 core values and was evident in our frontline manufacturing and distribution teams, who are the last ones to leave and first ones to return to keep production running in the middle of the pandemic. Customer centricity was alive and well among our commercial teams who held more than 4,000 training and education sessions for over 400,000 dental professionals. We are proud of our role in the broader health care community that we provide critical disinfectant products to help fight the spread of COVID-19 in dental and medical offices and critical care setting in more than 80 countries. In 2020, we shipped more than 30 million units of wipes and liquids to assist in this effort. At Envista, we're committed to partnering with dental professionals to create greater access to quality oral health care globally, to make products and services that improve the productivity and predictability of our customers' practices and help in creating better patient outcomes. To our customers, we're committed to supporting your efforts to improve oral health. To our employees, thank you again for your tremendous sacrifice and camaraderie in 2020. Turning back to our results. We had an outstanding finish to the year, delivering 3.4% core revenue growth, an 8.5% increase in free cash flow and a 23% increase in adjusted EBITDA. This was made possible by the progress we have made in our journey to accelerate growth, expand profitability and build a better Envista. Let me take you through some of the important details. We continue to expand our strategic growth areas with the Infection Prevention business, contributing more than 200 basis points to revenue growth and the combination of the N1 implant system and Spark Clear Aligners contributing more than 100 basis points above revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Infection Prevention business has been a significant contributor throughout the year and grew more than 40% in the fourth quarter. As we move beyond the pandemic, we believe this business will remain a high-growth area with many of the increased disinfecting procedures becoming a standard part of the health care protocols. We have increased capacity in 2020, which will provide us flexibility to expand the geographic footprint outside the U.S. Currently, more than 80% of our Infection Prevention revenues are derived in the U.S. Additionally, we are adding more resources to build a greater presence in the medical market segment, which is more than 6x larger than the dental market, and we have less than 10% market share. Last quarter, we launched a new surface disinfectant product for this market, CAviWipes 2 designed to kill over 40 pathogens with a 2-minute kill time and in a simple 1-step process. Reception has been phenomenal, and our sales team has secured several long-term multiyear contracts with integrated delivery networks worth more than $5 million NAV. Our orthodontics business had another outstanding quarter, growing at mid-teens rate with bracket and wire growing approximately 10%. Innovation is another 1 of our 5 core values and is an important part of the growth strategy in orthodontics. For Spark, this was marked by the launch of our Release 10 update featuring TruGEN XR, a more rigid material that gives doctors more control with the finishing details of the case. Release 10 also added clinical and diagnostic capabilities unique to Spark with posterior bite turbos that help with more complex open bite cases. It also includes the migration of 3D CBCT images and intraoral scans aligned for more comprehensive treatment planning by doctors. These new features provides orthodontists greater start to finish control and ultimately, will help create better aesthetic outcomes for patients. With the addition of several new manufacturing lines in 2020, we now have 3x more manufacturing capacity in comparison to when we entered the year. Today, there are more than 1,000 orthodontists who are actively prescribing Spark. Innovation is also an important part of our strategy to expand our share in implants. In the fourth quarter, we launched our new surfaces, TiUltra and Xeal in the U.S. These new surfaces are applied to our implants and abutments to optimize soft tissue adhesion and bone integration, resulting in more aesthetically pleasing treatment outcomes and better long-term clinical results. We have sold more than 250,000 implants and abutments with these surfaces in 2020 and anticipate this would be a significant boost to our product portfolio in the U.S. as we move into 2021. These surfaces are also featured in our N1 implant system, a new innovative product that is designed to be easier for clinicians to use. N1's treatment protocol operates at a much lower speed and with fewer steps, which result in less damaged to bone and soft tissues, reducing total treatment time while creating a more comfortable experience for the patient. We introduced N1 to over 1,000 clinicians in Europe with more than 300 adopting the product and 40% of them placing repeat orders. We anticipate more clinicians will choose to adopt and want as the pandemic eases and we accelerate in-person trainings. With clear momentum in both Spark and N1, we anticipate more than 200 basis points of revenue contribution from these products in 2021. The progress and these growth priorities has been made possible by the Board actions we took to permanently change the cost structure of Envista by reducing more than $100 million annualized spending. Here is where we see continuous improvement, a key attribute of EBS, helping to drive adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% for the second consecutive quarter. These business transformation initiatives allow us to deploy substantial resources into orthodontics where we increased headcount more than 40% in 2020 to help support the rapid growth of both the traditional bracket and wire and a Spark Clear Aligner businesses. In 2021, we plan to invest more than $30 million to help build a Spark manufacturing capabilities and expand commercial initiatives in both implants and orthodontics. The recovery of dental market in conjunction with our focus to enhance performance and simplify our business has put us in the best financial position we have been in since becoming a public company. We generated more than $240 million free cash flow during 2020, which helped grow our cash position to nearly $900 million. Consequently, we have repaid $472 million of our bank debt in February, accelerating compliance with the original terms of agreement 2 quarters ahead of plan. We now have the financial flexibility to use our capital to further reposition Envista into a more consumable and integrated workflow-oriented portfolio. With the business exits this year, more than 85% of our revenue is within the strategic areas today. I will now turn it over to Howard to go through our financials in more details. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Amir. Fourth quarter sales increased 1.6% to $732 million. Sales were positively impacted 0.1% from acquisitions and 1.9% from currency and unfavorably impacted 3.8% due to discontinued products. Core sales increased approximately 3.4%, a sequential improvement from the sales declines experienced in the first 3 quarters of 2020. Globally, most dentist offices remained open with stable patient volumes relative to the third quarter despite some government-imposed lockdowns and an increase in prevalence of COVID-19. Our consumables business led the way with mid-single-digit growth driven by pent-up demand, new procedure volumes and strong performance in our Infection Prevention business. Geographically, sales in developed markets grew at mid-single-digit rate. North America increased low single digits with robust demand for our infection prevention and orthodontic products. Western Europe grew at a mid-single-digit rate, and Japan grew at a double-digit rate, led by our traditional consumables and equipment businesses. This was partially due to government policies designed to incentivize the purchase of capital and disinfecting equipment. In emerging markets, China grew more than 20%, with all product categories experiencing healthy performance. Our Specialty business had a strong second half of 2020 and finished the year in positive territory. The success throughout the year has been due to our investment in key private accounts, which recovered more quickly than the public sector. Private sector revenues increased more than 25% in 2020. In the public sector, we have focused on increasing formulary access for our premium implants and new orthodontic products, Spark and DQ2, which will help us grow as more patients return to public care settings. Outside of China, other emerging markets remained weak and declined more than 10% as the COVID-19 outbreak suppressed demand. Our adjusted gross margin of 54.4% increased 40 basis points due to favorable product mix and productivity initiatives, which were partially offset by inefficiency from capacity building for N1 and Spark. Adjusted operating profit margin was 19.3%, an increase of 360 basis points, largely driven by our structural cost reduction actions, which led to savings of more than $25 million in the quarter. These savings were primarily driven by a reduction in personnel spending and 10% reduction in our global footprint. Profitability substantially increased with adjusted EBITDA growing by 23% to $151 million. Our 2020 fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56 is an increase of approximately 24% compared to the same period in the prior year on a pro forma basis to include incremental interest expense of approximately $14 million. For the full year, we generated more than $241 million of free cash flow, including more than $185 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 8.5% from the comparable period in 2019. Importantly, our free cash flow to adjusted net income ratio for 2020 was approximately 150%, a testament to our strong quality of earnings. As Amir mentioned, we were able to accelerate compliance and reinstatement of the original terms of our credit agreement, which will substantially lower our interest expense beginning in February. Now turning to our 2 business segments. Our Specialty Products & Technologies segment sales were up 4.4%, while core revenue increased 2.2%. Our orthodontic business grew at mid-teens rate with significant contribution from both brackets and wires and clear aligners. Brackets and wires grew approximately 10% with new volume remaining strong and backlog reduction driving the acceleration in sequential performance. New patient volumes continue to be aided by consumers using more of their discretionary income on aesthetic procedures and taking advantage of more flexible work and school schedules. Our Damon System has been a key differentiator in our performance in the second half of the year with more than 20% growth in the fourth quarter alone. Doctors have remained loyal to the Damon System because it creates lower forces of teeth -- on teeth in comparison to other conventional brackets, making it more efficient and more comfortable for patients while creating beautiful outcomes. Spark was also a significant contributor to growth in the quarter, with total case shipments in the second half of 2020 increasing more than 250% in comparison to the first half of the year. Our implant business declined at a low single-digit rate with growth in China and developed markets, offset by weakness in emerging markets outside of China where conditions have remained challenging. The business improved sequentially due in large part to our focus in areas like DSOs and China. Nobel Biocare's revenue from North America DSO customers increased at a mid-single-digit rate for the second consecutive quarter. This performance is being driven by our clinical education programs where more than 500 affiliated doctors were trained in Q4, expanding the number of clinicians able to offer implant treatments. In China, our leading education program has also been a differentiator for our business. Here, we hosted a variety of dental clinic management courses and the first women's leadership summit form, enabling female dental practitioners and leaders to learn from each other and to help promote diversity and inclusion in the workplace. This quarter also brought notable global recognition of our Nobel Biocare implant business, which received award from Dentaltown's Annual Townie Customer Choice Awards for their best implant system, crown and bridge. The Townie awards recognize the most reliable and reputable products in the dental industry as voted by peers. Specialty Products & Technologies adjusted operating profit margin increased 60 basis points to 20.9%, due primarily to cost savings from our structural program, which were partially offset by increased investment in clear aligners and implants. As Amir mentioned, we expect to increase our investment in capacity and commercial activities in 2021 to further accelerate adoption of N1 and Spark. Our Equipment & Consumables segment sales decreased 0.7%, while core sales increased 4.3%. Discontinued products adversely impacted sales by 6.7%. Traditional consumables grew at a low double-digit rate with Infection Prevention leading the way with growth of more than 40%. The Infection Prevention team truly embraced EBS in 2020, tirelessly working to improve the efficiency of the manufacturing process and increased throughput and better meet customer needs. These actions have helped to increase our daily production of disinfectant products by more than 20% in comparison to the third quarter. Demand has remained robust, with our backlog position still above $25 million. Our restorative and endodontic businesses declined slightly, a sequential improvement from the third quarter performance. Our equipment business was flat with significant improvement in all product categories relative to the prior quarter. Smaller equipment performed better than large capital equipment driven by higher demand of our electric hand pieces due to new hygienic standards in certain geographies. In our imaging business, our team has done a terrific job of embodying our core value of customer centricity with new satisfaction programs that stand behind the quality of our products. This includes an unconditional first year warranty and a 60-day no hassle return policy where customers can try many of our products risk free. We are also furthering the competitiveness of our 3D product portfolio providing radiology reports through a partnership with BeamReaders readers in addition to the Envista clinical training offerings. BeamReaders is a team of oral surgeons and radiologists that tailor reports to help clinicians create better treatment plans for their patients. Equipment & Consumables adjusted operating profit margin increased 710 basis points to 23.8%, impacted both by a favorable product mix and a tremendous job by the team executing on our cost reduction programs, which drove more than 450 basis points of improvement. We anticipate better operating margins to continue into 2021 driven by strong growth in our Infection Prevention business, the exit of lower-margin products in our equipment business and sustainment of our cost-reduction measures. I'll now turn it back to Amir, who will walk you through some details of the current operating environment. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Howard. We are very pleased with our progress in 2020 and believe we are entering 2021 in a position of strength. For the second consecutive quarter, our strategic priorities contributed more than 300 basis points to our top line growth. Additionally, our China business returned to double-digit growth for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. We delivered adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% for the second consecutive quarter due in large part to our execution on our $100 million permanent cost reduction and margin enhancement programs. These savings will help us accelerate future performance as we partially redeploy cash into required investment to accelerate our Specialty segment growth. After the exit of lower growth and margin areas of the business, our portfolio today is much better positioned with our 85% of our revenue focused in consumables and clinical workflow products. We expect to expand upon our strong foundation inorganically as our balance sheet in the best -- is in the best possible position it has ever been. Looking forward, we are cautiously optimistic in the near-term outlook of the dental market. We entered January with a healthy backlog, and solid recovery trends continue results for the months consistent with the second half of 2020. For the first quarter, we believe our orthodontic business will maintain the strong performance driven by new case starts and that the implant placement rates will remain stable relative to the fourth quarter. In Equipment & Consumables, we anticipate a strong performance in infection prevention to drive double-digit growth in consumables, while equipment is expected to remain below pre-COVID levels as certain incentives moderate. Geographically, we have seen a stable conditions continue from the fourth quarter. In North America, Western Europe, which makes up over 70% of our revenue, the dental market, whilst steady, remains below pre-pandemic levels with infection prevention and higher complexity procedures continuing to make up for reduced volume. About 10% of our revenues in China, where we have benefited from strong economic activity but have also seen some disruption in Northern China in January due to government-imposed restrictions. In emerging markets outside China, we anticipate richer performance in the first quarter as there has yet to be a significant rebound in dental activity. Our expectation moving forward is that dentist offices remain open and that we begin to see improving momentum through the first half as vaccination distribution progresses. We also believe that majority of immediately addressable pent-up demand is now behind us and that higher case complexity will continue to help offset this stable but reduced patient volume in the near term. Turning to margin. We anticipate first quarter operating margins will be lower sequentially as we invest in our strategic growth priorities and historically have higher operating expenses as a percentage of revenue. We are optimistic about the long-term growth prospect of the dental industry. The pandemic has caused a significant decline in preventative visits, which we believe could lead to more oral health care issues being identified when patients fully return to their dentists. In Specialty, the implant and orthodontic market remain underpenetrated with the growing need for training and education. Innovative solutions like Spark, N1 and an integrated digital workflow will enable more clinicians to be more productive and predictable in performing these difficult procedures. There's also a growing need to enhance disinfection procedures to prevent transmittable diseases across the health care space worldwide with our products at the front -- front lines every day. Our 2021 financial priorities remain consistent: accelerating growth, improving our profitability and building a better Envista. We will work to achieve our goals by investing in a specialty infection prevention in China, maintaining cost discipline, repositioning our portfolio for accelerated growth and powerful capital deployment. We are also committed to building an Envista into a leading destination for talent, increasing our diversity while leveraging EBS to continuously improve in all that we do. We are an organization committed to the dental industry and our purpose of making oral care readily available to more people; improving productivity and predictability of treatment options; and ultimately, improving confidence and quality of life for patients. We're proud of the progress we have made in 2020 and excited about the opportunity to further advance these goals as we move into 2021 and beyond. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Bedford, Envista Holdings Corporation - VP of IR [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks, Amir. That concludes our formal comments. Erica, we're now ready for questions. ================================================================================ Questions and Answers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Jeff Johnson with Baird. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jeffrey D. Johnson, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division - Senior Research Analyst [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Congratulations on a really solid close to the year. Amir, I wanted to start with your revenue outlook. The geographic details and the product line detail is very helpful. You exited the year above 4Q '19 levels on a core basis. If I roll up your comments, it sounds like maybe in line in 2021 with 2019 revenues or slightly below. Is that how we should still be thinking about your full year 2021 revenues? I know you're not guiding but maybe all in a little bit below 2019 levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you, Jeff. We're really pleased with where we ended in Q4. We have done, as you can imagine, a lot of work in reposition this portfolio and put ourselves in a better place. Our consumable is mid-single digit. Equipment is flat. Our growth priorities are adding over 300 basis points of a top line performance. We have a double-digit ortho growth and over 40% infection prevention growth. Geographically, we have really positioned ourselves in a different situation. And we expect better execution as we go forward, but on the other hand, some of the government incentive as well as the outlook of what we see in pandemic remain uncertain. China, obviously, is doing extremely well, specific in specialty. Developed markets is -- has been a surprise to us, and we are seeing those expectation exceeding above the board. Currency played a role in Q4, not that big, but it was about a $10 million. Putting all of that together, what we see in Q1, a continuation of what we saw in second half. Except this change in equipment and consumable, specific on equipment, because of incentives that were given in Germany and Japan. But looking ahead, it's really difficult for us at this point to provide guidance in 2021. What we can tell you is we have repositioned its portfolio in a very good place, exactly where we wanted it to be. And we are excited about the opportunities as COVID dynamics changes over time, and it puts us in a better place as we enter the second half of this year. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jeffrey D. Johnson, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division - Senior Research Analyst [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All right. That's helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, just, Howard, on the margins, it's 2 quarters now, the second half of the year anyway. You're just at 20% operating margin on a non-GAAP company-wide basis. Street is sitting at 15% operating margin or even a bit below that for all of 2021. If I think about your $30 million in incremental investments on the Specialty side, that's only 1 point or so. I would assume you feel fine with where the Street's at 15%. It would feel like, to me, there should be some upside there. Just how should we think about the full year? Understanding you're not guiding. But at least, can you kind of toggle us between that 15% Street number and the 20% that you exited the second half of 2020 at? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sure, Jeff. Thanks for the question. Certainly, we're pleased with where we ended the year and really the second half. As Amir indicated, there is still some fluidity to the situation. We're talking about the pandemic, certain geographies. We talked a little bit about Northern China as well. But as it relates to margins, we do feel as though we will be better than the 2019 level certainly. And maybe given there's so much out there, one of the ways to think about it is if we use 2019 as a jump-off point and adjust those -- the EBITDA number for corporate costs, that puts us roughly in the $400 million range and as you indicated, Jeff, with some of the cost savings as well as the investment that Amir referenced. And we have some inflationary considerations as well. So I think that, that does put us in that mid-, mid-teens. The higher part of the mid-teens is what we're looking at overall as we're thinking about the EBITDA. But again, without putting out formal guidance, I think that, that's the rough range of where we're thinking. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Jon Block with Stifel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan David Block, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm actually going to pick up where Jeff left off. I'm sorry, I just think it's important for clarification. I'll take a different approach. The 2H EBITDA was, I believe, $280 million, obviously, run rating well over $500 million. But look, there's onetime stuff in there, Howard. You called that out. How do we think about what was onetime? And also on the $30 million investment in 2021 around N1 and Spark, is that all expense just to be clear? Or some of those investments specific to CapEx? So maybe we can just put a finer point to some of those questions. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [8] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Maybe knocking off the first part or the second part of that question. That $30 million is going to be running through the P&L. So it's primarily on the OpEx as well as the manufacturing expense. And hopefully, that helps a little bit there, Jon. I think that we do have a little bit more visibility around Q1 and earlier in the year than I would say, the latter part of the year overall. And so maybe to talk a little bit relative to the 2020 numbers for Q1, as you indicated, if we take that as a jump-off point, we talked about the cost savings and completing that effort. That's a gross savings of about $25 million on a quarterly basis. And then we think that we'll have a very healthy fall-through in Q1 on volume of, let's say, in excess of 40%. And so that helps us kind of get through what we're looking at very near term. And then more broader term, I think we had answered that relative to what Jeff was asking as well in his perceptions in what we think on the EBITDA side. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan David Block, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst [9] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Got it. Fair enough. And I'll pivot for the second one. Wires and brackets number was just -- was phenomenal again. I think you guys called out 10% growth. It's just funny, here, we are all focused on Spark and clear aligners, but a good amount of dollar growth has really been in that wires and brackets core franchise. So maybe, Amir, if you can just spend some time, what do you think market's growing? How are you growing what seems like well, well above market? Is it from a geographic standpoint? Is it due to one of the players exiting the market? And do you think maybe high single-digit growth can be maintained going forward specific to wires and brackets? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [10] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Thank you, Jon. To start it -- to start this process, our wire and bracket business has been growing mid-single digit prior to pandemic. If you look at that segment, that $2 billion segment was growing at that low single digit to flat, and we were continuing and had mid-single-digit growth before the pandemic. Our team has done a really incredible job in taking share in many places in China, Russia, Western Europe second half. And you look at the second half growth, we had a high single-digit growth and double-digit growth in Q4. We have started really performing very well in the U.S. So figure out where is this coming from. This performance is a combination of a pent-up demand that we saw a little bit, what I call is zoom effect, people being -- having a little bit more time, have a little bit more money to spend in here. Our bracket and wire business is really differentiated. It's differentiated because it has significant number of new innovation coming into the space on the Damon bracket area. It's differentiated because of a lot of training and education that we continue to do as 70% of this business is outside U.S., really exposed to what is happening in China and Russia in other geographies. That combination really puts us in an outstanding position to continue this momentum as we go forward. We are committed to this business. We think there is a large part of the segment meet this requirement by going after the bracket and wire, and we're going to continue to invest in it and make sure that people understand the value that we provide. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [11] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Steve Beuchaw with Wolfe Research. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen Christopher Beuchaw, Wolfe Research, LLC - Director of Equity Research [12] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Certain things have come up on the call that I'd love to get a little quantification on if we can, one, just because I don't trust my own math. Howard, could you talk a little bit about the implications of the decline in interest rates that you flagged in February? What's the impact on interest expense for the balance of the year? And is there any delta between that and what we would think of in terms of cash flow? And then the second thing I was hoping to get some quantification on is the programs that you referenced that were impactful in the second half of 2020, in Germany, in Japan. Any specifics on what those did in terms of growth of dollars would be super, super helpful. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [13] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sure. So as it relates to the interest, Steve, this is related to the payback of our $752 million of debt. And so we think that the interest will be stepping down. I think it's about $12 million for Q1 and then will be about $8 million for each quarter subsequent to that. And this will be effective here in February. And so hopefully, that provides you some thoughts as it relates to that on a cash basis. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [14] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As far as the -- Steve, as far as the program that they were put in place in -- specifically in latter part of last year, we saw a serious program in Japan and specifically in Germany, around VAT reduction on capital equipment as well as amortization that they put different kind of a program in place, and both of those really helped investment in this space and the equipment side. Also, we saw better demand for smaller equipment, a lot of hand pieces, specifically electrical hand pieces, which is more hygienic, works a lot better. And I saw also improvement in our imaging and imaging pieces where a lot of things that we talked a little bit about a commitment to customers, 60-day no-risk guarantee. We are really encouraged by work that we have done in repositioning the portfolio. Our team has done a really great job executing and becoming a lot more customer centric in this space and as I mentioned, some of those programs that we saw in the latter half of last year. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stephen Christopher Beuchaw, Wolfe Research, LLC - Director of Equity Research [15] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Just one follow-up. Amir, you talked at different places here in the Q&A and in your prepared remarks about pent-up demand, and you've talked about working through some of that. But in some areas, you've also talked about there being remaining pent-up demand, maybe higher acuity demand. So I think it's different in different categories, right? Can you try -- I know it's hard. I know it's hard. But could you try to size it and give us a sense, do you think any sort of demand backlog, right? Is it a net tailwind or net headwind for '21? Or does it just kind of wash out? And then I'll get back in queue. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [16] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Yes. Happy to do it. I mean we have been looking at this continuously, Steve. So let me just start with equipment and consumable. Our inventory from January 1, 2020, to end of the year is down by 40%. So that's just important factor to think about, that inventories were down, so there is no extra inventory sitting out there. So what we talk about when we talk about pent-up demand, that plays a really important role. When inventories are leveled off, the sell-in and sell-out kind of match each other. And then the other element of this is around that infection prevention backlog. We have done -- we -- as I -- we mentioned, we have added capacity. We have -- our infection prevention in Q4, we've grown over 40%, and that momentum hasn't stopped. We're walking into Q1 with the same set of setup. We have over $30 million of backlog in here. Our ortho business, we saw a little bit of a pent-up demand in Q3. By the time we got to Q4, we think that really had worked its way out, and it is not as much of an issue as we go forward. So you pull it together, our base business, we don't think pent-up demand is as much of an issue walking in 2021. Now let's go to a standard dentist visit. You go for hygiene. Normally, a lot of new cases get identified when you go through your standard hygiene checkup. That offers opportunity for additional specialty businesses as we see a little bit of normalities, hopefully in the second half of this year. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a feel for what we saw in second half, what we have seen in the first half and what we expect to see in second half of 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [17] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Erin Wright with Crédit Suisse. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Erin Elizabeth Wilson Wright, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst [18] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Just follow-up on the infection prevention. I guess, can you describe or speak to how we should be thinking about the durability and quarterly progression of infection prevention contributions here? What purchases kind of within that segment are more recurring in nature? And you mentioned some multiyear contracts as well. How should we think about that and the contributions in 2021 and beyond as well as the margin profile for that business? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [19] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Happy to do it. So this business in 2020 was $220 million. So we have talked about adding $100 million to it at the very beginning, so we made a significant step forward in 2020, build significant amount of capacity. In Q4, as I mentioned to Steve, grew 40%. That momentum is continuing. We got over $30 million backlog. So now let me break it down for you from 2 different dimension. 50% of this business is dental, and we have over 40% share in that segment. And as you can imagine, at the beginning of the year, there was not a whole lot of demand, but that demand has ramped up. And a lot of that business, over 80% of it, is in the United States. The other 50% is medical and the medical space, the market is 6x larger than the dental, and we have less than 10% share. So when I take a step back and say is it sustainable, disinfection -- disinfectant procedures is becoming a standard globally. Everybody is using it. Even after pandemic, it's going to be a standard procedure. 80% of business has been in U.S. We have significant runway outside U.S., and we're building capacity outside U.S., commercial capacity capabilities. Medical market gives us an opportunity to be a much bigger player because of the product capabilities that we have. We have also added resources on the commercial side. So this business is going to be a double-digit growth for us at least in 2021 until we get to a more of a level setting in here as above fleet average margin, so more of a consumable margin, and I think it has -- it's going to be an important part of our overall portfolio as we go forward with what I talked about. Those 3 different dimension gives us opportunity for runway in the long run. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [20] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think, Erin, maybe just -- this is Howard. Just to clarify here a little bit. We would think that the expectation on the first half would probably be a bit higher given that, in the second half, we're going to have some of these comps as we roll into the third quarter of this year as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Erin Elizabeth Wilson Wright, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst [21] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Great. That's helpful. And how should we think about the ramp of N1 and implants overall given that there's more of that face-to-face sales process? Do you anticipate that will really ramp when things normalize? And how -- what's your response to the traction so far? I think you said 40% of the Europe doctors are doing repeat business. Presumably, that would be kind of better in a normalized environment. But how is it -- how is that relative to your kind of initial expectations there? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [22] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. So as you can imagine, this is a surgical procedure that you really want to have a group of people in a surgical room, show them, teach them how it's done. And that has been a little bit of a challenging in here given the environment that we are in. Upon saying that, we have trained over 1,000 doctors, introduced in 10 different countries, and we continue to do that. 300 of those 1,000 -- more than 300, they have placed orders, and 40% of them, they have placed repeat orders. It is going better than what we have expected given what is taking place. The reality is that it's on the ground. How this is going to ramp up? A lot of it has to do with the training. Our experts need to become really comfortable, and then they're going to teach other people how to use it. What we are hearing from our experts is this is an incredible change in what has taken place in this industry. I want to take us back to over 20 years ago. Immediate loading protocols really changed the industry when Nobel introduced it. N1 is a paradigm shift in implant procedure. It will become a standard. It's going to be a new way of doing things. We are excited about it. Hopefully, as the pandemic moves forward, as we get it in the U.S., this is going to be an important part of our growth and getting implant to continue to execute as we go forward. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [23] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Brandon Couillard with Jefferies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brandon Couillard, Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard, I think the fourth quarter had 3 less selling days. Could you quantify sort of the impact to core growth in the quarter? And if you look at the core consumables business, can you strip down kind of what core consumables growth would have looked like adjusting for the selling days and kind of backing out the Infection Prevention contribution? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [25] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. So Brandon, sure. I mean I think that in light of the ebb and flows of the pandemic and things of that nature, we did see the number of days did not play as big of an impact as it relates to the equipment sales, which stayed strong. We think that the incentives that the government had put in place probably outweigh some of the days within the respective month or quarter. And so we certainly saw that overall. I think from a consumables standpoint, we felt really good about the growth there. As Amir indicated, on the specialty side, both the orthodontic business growing at the double-digit rate as well as the improved performance in the implant business and some of the growth that we saw in larger customers like DSOs and in China coming back really strong as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brandon Couillard, Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst [26] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And maybe one for Amir back on N1. Just give us an update in terms of the timing of a broader commercial rollout for that product in Europe as well as update as far as the U.S. introduction goes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [27] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Happy to do it, Brandon. In Europe, country by country, we are adding it and the moment, we have an opportunity to show up in any office, any places. And we have been doing a lot of remote training out of our Zurich office and broadcasting it, but we really got to be on-site to be able to do that. So wherever we have an opportunity city by city, geography by geography, we are doing that in Europe, across Europe. In the U.S., we're going through the approval process, the 510(k). We're working with the FDA. We are filing all that information, and a lot of that has to do with kind of the feedback we get and what kind of question we get. We are counting on second half, later half of this year to that become an important part of our growth vectors in the U.S. At the same time, a lot of new product that we have put in place, both in Europe and on surface is making a difference. They are in the U.S., and they're going to be continuing introduction of various product categories, abutment, prosthetic, that they're going to be part of a broader rollout. So we think this is going to be an important factor for us second half of 2021 and in 2022, get us to mid-single-digit growth, high-single-digit growth over time, our implant business. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [28] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Elizabeth Anderson with Evercore. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Elizabeth Hammell Anderson, Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division - Associate [29] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Can you just remind us if there's any selling days impact on the first quarter at all? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Howard H. Yu, Envista Holdings Corporation - Senior VP & CFO [30] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Elizabeth, I think it's fairly de minimis. It's maybe a day and so certainly, don't factor that in as it relates to our expectations here on Q1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Elizabeth Hammell Anderson, Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division - Associate [31] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And then as we think about as sort of volumes are continuing to re-ramp at dentist offices, can you talk about how you sort of see the drop-through and if there's any -- the incremental drop there? And is there any particular categories that, that might have a more pronounced impact on versus others? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [32] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So we think that the patient volume is going to continue to ramp up, hopefully, in the second half of next year. As we have talked about, we think our specialty businesses, they have a much better margin profile. And as we talked about, the combination of infection prevention, N1, Spark, those combination, that should give us about a 300 basis point of growth throughout the year. That mix shift that we have done, Elizabeth, over 85% of our business now being more a consumer piece, that really would have a direct impact into our margin as we go forward, combination of what we did, the cost saving, changing the portfolio, changing the mix. We have said you're going to see us having better performance and growth, mid-single digit over time, better margin and then put the portfolio in a better place as we come out of pandemic. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [33] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your next question is from Nathan Rich with Goldman Sachs. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nathan Allen Rich, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division - Research Analyst [34] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir, I appreciate all the details that you've given on the call so far. Just trying to kind of summarize your comments on 1Q and the outlook. I guess, is it kind of fair to say that kind of putting everything together, you've seen pretty consistent end market demand so far in the first quarter kind of relative to what your experience was in 4Q? And then obviously, kind of worth watching some of the variability around China that you called out as well as the equipment incentive programs. I guess just kind of wanted at a high level, is that kind of a fair way to pull together how you're thinking about the first quarter? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [35] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Nathan, you have it absolutely right. Exactly. We're not seeing -- so far, we haven't seen anything that tells us there is a radical shift. We think that Q1 is going to be very similar to second half. Second half was -- overall was kind of flat, up slightly. Patient volume was still pre-COVID levels, but the mix was more positive. Specialty, you saw a little bit of moderation in basically in China, and that's the one that we are watching. Equipment and consumable, we think it was high single digit, double digit, but the thing that it is a little bit different in here is equipment or those incentives that we talked about. We think that after we get to a more of a longer term, getting our situation, we can get -- we can see ourselves to be in a mid-single-digit growth territory around that area as we go forward. But Q1, given these changes in China and equipment, we're not expecting any radical changes versus what we have seen, and so far, that continuation of their performance been consistent. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nathan Allen Rich, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division - Research Analyst [36] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Got it. Okay. And then I wanted to ask a follow-up on Spark. Amir, could you maybe talk about how Spark's performed outside the U.S. in the markets that you're in relative to maybe what you've seen in the U.S.? And then are you planning to expand to any additional countries in 2021? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amir Aghdaei, Envista Holdings Corporation - President, CEO & Director [37] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Absolutely. We have it in China now, Nathan. It was approved both clinically from a manufacturing perspective, so China is ramping up. And in Europe, we are signing up more and more that is almost on a weekly basis. So geography by geography throughout Europe. And then we have a really nice rollout plan over -- as the capacity expands, we are going through country by country. And we have said before that we want to be in a position to make this in about $100 million business over the next couple of years, and we are on our way. We have capacity now. I mentioned 3x capacity we had in 2019, and we're going to double that capacity again in 2021, as Howard said, the investment that we are making. And those investment is a combination of a front-end case approval process, manufacturing as well as the regional expansion of putting feet on The Street, training program. So, so far, what we are hearing from our customers are very positive, and we continue to ramp this up over time. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [38] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And that is all the time that we have for questions. Management, closing remarks, please. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- John Bedford, Envista Holdings Corporation - VP of IR [39] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes. Thanks, Erica. We'll speak to everyone soon. Have a great day. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Operator [40] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.