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Edited Transcript of SEB A.ST earnings conference call or presentation 27-Apr-17 11:30am GMT

Thomson Reuters StreetEvents

Q1 2017 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB Earnings Call

Stockholm Jun 9, 2017 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB earnings conference call or presentation Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 11:30:00am GMT

TEXT version of Transcript

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Corporate Participants

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* Jan Erik Back

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP

* Johan Torgeby

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director

* Jonas Söderberg

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - Head of IR

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Conference Call Participants

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* Adrian Cighi

RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division - Equity Associate

* Geoff Dawes

Societe Generale Cross Asset Research - Equity Analyst

* Jacob Max Kruse

Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Scandinavian Banks

* Jan W. Wolter

Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Banks Research

* Matti Ahokas

Danske Bank Markets Equity Research - Head of Equity Research-Finland

* Riccardo Rovere

Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst

* Ronit Ghose

Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD, Head of European Banks Research and Global Sector Head for Banks

* Rosy Willis Emanuela Ann Palermo-Gambotto

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst

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Presentation

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Operator [1]

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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's first quarter 2017 results conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jonas Söderberg.

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Jonas Söderberg, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - Head of IR [2]

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Thank you very much for that and also from the SEB side a warm welcome to the telephone conference for the first quarter results. Johan will do a short introduction as our normal procedure and then we will open up for the Q&A and hope to be able to answer all the questions. So Johan over to you then.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [3]

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Thank you, Jonas. Good afternoon everyone and welcome to this year's first SEB quarterly and my absolute inaugural conference call with you guys, welcome.I have a 10-page pack that we will go through and just setting the frame, we have characterized the market circumstances during the first quarter as being two pronged. We've seen continued uncertainty on the political scenes, geopolitical tension, a more allowing climate for protectionism to be spoken of and absolutely a debate on what pace will the monetary stimulus will be reduced going forward.In addition to that, there has been big focus on national elections U.K., France post Trump being elected in the U.S. et cetera that remains. On the other side of the coin, we really see stable to strong and very resilient financial market. With the stock market performing very well noting all-time highs in several different areas, continued tight credit spreads, low interest rates despite going up a bit, and a very good market to conduct business and banking.Flipping to the first page the financial summary, Page 3, we today record a profit of SEK 5.5 billion for the first quarter. There are no one-off effects that has been introduced during this quarter, but we do have some that we have adjusted for in the base for comparative purposes. So I will focus on the underlying results during my presentation. That means that we recorded a 23% increase in operating profit coming from 10% on the income line, flat costs compared to last year and continued low credit losses.Return on equity is at 12.2%. When we do the days adjustment, we would like-for-like say it's 11.7%. Common Equity Tier 1 improved by 10 basis points from 18.8% to 18.9%, so continued very strong capital base. And the credit loss level was a very low 5 basis points.Next page, net interest income we recorded a 2% increase year-on-year. However, there are some pretty significant movements below that headline number. On the lending side, we increased 18% year-on-year pretty flattish between the fourth quarter and the first quarter this year. And we can also see here the negative effects of negative interest rates in particularly in Sweden where the deposit income has gone down from SEK 0.6 billion to SEK 0.2 billion.Good activity in the client areas, but not really any larger lending stemming from traditional corporates. There was some lending growth in the mortgage book, for SME and mid-corps and particular areas of -- such as (inaudible). The non-client driven development should be noted that this is the first quarter we have included the new higher resolution fee going from 4.5 basis points to 9 basis points and that's affected this quarter a negative SEK 211 million. We also did what we could classify as some prefunding or early funding raising SEK 38 billion of new capital in the bond market whilst only having SEK 5 billion of redemptions, hence a negative contribution for the interest costs on that new financing.Flipping page to net fees and commission, we noted a 10% increase year-on-year partly driven by a very active ECM, DCM corporate finance market. That is also to say not driven by fees coming from lending. We had a 10% increase in advisory secondary markets and derivatives. We also had a net inflow, I would classify it as a modest one, of SEK 6 billion of increase in assets under management. Fairly high activity levels and a stronger stock market absolutely also contributed to having a better fee and commission line.Further on, we will go to Page 6 and talk about net financial income this is where we recorded the largest increase; it's a very high number of SEK 2.1 billion in the quarter. If we talk about the client-driven side, there were many positives. The market area had good activity -- in particularly when it comes to hedging. We've now had 9 quarters in a row on what is typically viewed to be a more volatile line above SEK 1.2 billion. In addition to that, we had some positive effects from our liquidity management in treasury; we benefited from cost efficient funding.Switching on to one of the most common slides that we show, this is really to set the tone for how we are trying to get our operating model to perform and that is very strong cost control. So when we talk operational leverage, is based on a cost cap of SEK 22 billion for this year and for 2018. And we here record well in line with that cost cap with a quarterly cost of SEK 5.4 billion.Income has come back a bit to where we would like to see it after a relatively marginally weaker 2016. We are back to SEK 11.2 billion in the first quarter in line with '15 and together this constitutes a good strong continued development in operating profit.Now, I will just flick through the different divisions, starting with large corporate and financial institutions, our wholesale banking units. That recorded a drop in operating profit of 3% adjusted for one-offs. This doesn't truly reflect how it feels in this business area, we've clearly seen a higher degree of activity than we did last year. And here it can be important to just remember that the resolution fee, the negative effect of the resolution fee for the first time introduced here after it's been hiked, together with less deductibility on subordinated debt, together with the market valuations of our derivatives and other similar products, they were all significantly negative and they effected, in particular, this division.We've also seen high customer activity and a very cost efficient development of this area. Cost to income is down from 0.56 to 0.50 this year. So there has been a meaningful improvement of operational efficiency.Switching over to corporate and private customers, we noted a significant increase of 16% year-on-year. We had somewhat of an increase in our mortgage books; it grew with approximately SEK 4 billion in the quarter. That equates to a 3.5%, 3.6% increase, which is interesting to note, is close to half of the market increase on average. We also marginally expanded our lending to SMEs and mid-caps with SEK 3 billion and maybe most interesting here is that we added 2,000 new clients in this segment, that's SME and mid-corp clients, and we currently state that we have 170,000 clients at a market share of 15%, and this is one of the areas I think that has outperformed lately, and we hope we will continue to do so. Not too long ago, we had a 10% market share in this area.Switching to our last two divisions, Baltic had a very strong quarter and it's encouraging to see that now all the three Baltic states are performing. Here we do see some organic increased demand for the lending product, but we also of course are in a much more stable position than in previous past, where we now have no real worries about the quality of the credit book and this quarter we actually had a write back of SEK 19 million. And all this together makes for a significant jump in return on equity to be meaningfully above 20% right now. We've also done a major switch in our core systems in Latvia, which was a successful event, and we're very happy about that.In Life and IM, I'll just state that we had the modest increase in asset under management and of course helped by some strong financial markets. We also had a 20% increase in our premium income for the Life division. So we're going according to plan. However, I would say that the savings area is still a main focus for us for the rest of the year.Last slide before we open up is just to conclude. We aim to qualify this quarter as a solid first quarter helped by our diversified funding mix, business mix, strong capital position, and very low credit losses. We do see the financial markets to be fairly supportive in this environment, and we will continue to focus on productivity gains, operational efficiency, and enhance the client offering through digital channels for the foreseeable future.So with those word, I'll just conclude there. Jonas?

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Jonas Söderberg, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - Head of IR [4]

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Yes. So then we open up then for questions to you all and we also have (inaudible) over here in the room.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Geoff Dawes.

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Geoff Dawes, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research - Equity Analyst [2]

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Geoff Dawes here from Soc Gen. A couple of questions from myself both on the merchant banking division. The first one is you kind of hinted at this in your report and I think another bank mentioned it as well, which is that there's been quite a strong take-up of corporates not lending bilaterally with you and going to the capital markets instead and that's played on volumes and revenues in the start of the year. Can you just give a bit of color on that trend, whether that's something that's a start-of-the-year phenomenon or something that's a change that we'll see throughout the year and possibly impact your revenues going forward? And then the second question is just a bit more broadly on the merchant banking revenue line. When can we expect kind of better corporate performance, better corporate activity to start showing up more clearly in the fee income line? What are you waiting for or what are you looking forward to see that become a little stronger? Those are the two questions.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [3]

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Thank you for those. Starting with the inter-linkage between loans and bonds, I think it is true what you say and what we've indicated, but don't forget it's on the margin. So we have seen a much more active bond market. The companies that access the bond market always have a natural choice to do it through a bank financing, and as we've had a fairly disappointing but still a fair belief in that disintermediation will continue that that has an effect on the margin. But the more important takeaway is that underlying general demand for credit is low. That is leverage is not going up amongst corporates. Organic investments are not picking up in tandem with the leading indicators in the service we see. They seem very optimistic despite whatever you see in the market. But it hasn't really converted into a large investment boom of any sort. Secondly, this -- it's the M&A side, which has not really materialized either. So we are dependent on having a very confident client base within the corporate space that trigger these events for it really to happen. That leads me into the second. I think there are two things if you are like us waiting for the income line as well [signify] to make a more meaningful uptick. And first it is the -- it's just a function of the company's behaviors. We are securing right now the best possible market position we can so we can capture it. But we do need a more active M&A market. We would like to see investments growing and that they are asking for financing from the banks and that's pretty much it. We have a pretty good market on DCM and ECM, but they are relatively small compared to the fees that also need to come before we say we fire on all cylinders from the lending side. The lending fees are still important to us.

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Geoff Dawes, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research - Equity Analyst [4]

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And just to be clear as well, you're confident that this is a kind of market trend issue rather than your own position in the market, there's no loss of market share, you're just waiting for the whole market to rebound is what I take from your statement. Is that correct?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [5]

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Absolutely. If anything, I would dare to say that we have a very satisfactory market share position in what has been slightly lower.

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Operator [6]

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And your next question comes from the line of Willis Palermo.

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Rosy Willis Emanuela Ann Palermo-Gambotto, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst [7]

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Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on volume growth outlook and especially on the mortgage side where you pointed last quarter the ambition to grow a little bit quicker than what you've done recently. Now it's still increasing slightly but much slower than the market and I was wondering what kind of growth you hope to achieve and if you intend to gain market share or what's your assumption of the market growth overall.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [8]

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So I'll just frame the answer from where we stand. We did indicate that we would be open for getting closer to the market average. Right now, we are having a slight uptick. As you might know, we've actually been reducing in growth number that has stopped. So we've kind of stabilized to have a small almost not noticeable but still a small uptick in the growth in the volume of the mortgage book, 3.5%. The market has actually come down a little bit. It is not very much, but that's roughly around the low 7% year-on-year in growth numbers right now. What is important to understand that we don't only view this as a weakness for us. We have a bilateral discussion with every mortgage client in this bank with a pretty conservative estimate about what they can carry in debt, et cetera, and they amount to these. We do not have a simple ambition just to go up to the market average, but we will allow for it to happen. So we don't have the most stringent, call it restriction if it would be a little bit faster. For the longer term outlook, I think it's definitely important to keep in mind that the price increases that we've seen over and beyond the new housing that has been constructed has driven part of this. So we've seen house price appreciation in Sweden where the mortgage book is more or less exclusively targeted to -- of 8% to 9% per year for the last few years, and it's really a call for that. And many people are saying it's not going to continue forever that price increase. And I'm looking here at my CFO, Jan-Erik, if he wanted to add something on the mortgage outlook.

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [9]

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No, I think that was the full version you answered. I think that was fine.

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Rosy Willis Emanuela Ann Palermo-Gambotto, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst [10]

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And the second question is on asset pricing. In the corporate book, two peers announced a price hike in some area of their books, which is administratively set rate. I was wondering if you plan to do the same. And if yes, so how big the portfolio would be?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [11]

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Yes. First, just let me give my personal opinion about us pricing on corporates. You've got a -- first the people who -- the banks who have communicated, they talk about SME mass market as some real-estate companies. Second, over and beyond that we have the real large corporates. So, I'll frame my answer in those two. On the large corporates, which is a significant part of our book, we have a much higher proportion of larger wholesale banking clients. It's very much a market dictated price. You can't really just increase the price and get anything done. Here we don't see really any improvements in margin, it's really co-related to the credit spreads in the overall market, liquidity continues to be very high, money is cheap and there's a lot of opportunities for anyone to borrow from multiple sources or banks. On the more mass market SME mid-corp and domestic and real-estate, the dynamic is slightly different. We have not said that we would reprice it to the same extent that others communication because it's really the function of a bilateral discussion. But the overall market position is such that there's not an easy way to reprice upward. There is for the same reason I mentioned for large corp it affects the smaller ones. But I'm cautious is what I would like to say.

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [12]

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And regarding size, Willis, I think that our -- the size of our corporate book that is having this price mechanism all that we can increase by announcing in the paper and increase the whole back book is very limited and is smaller than the numbers that we have seen from the peers that have reported earlier this week.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [13]

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I would add one thing and that is we have not seen the consequence of their communication being materialized as we are working in the same market and we are competing for the same business. So, it is interesting they say that, but I don't think they've been very successful.

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Operator [14]

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And your next question comes from Matti Ahokas.

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Matti Ahokas, Danske Bank Markets Equity Research - Head of Equity Research-Finland [15]

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Matti Ahokas from Danske. Question also on the large corporate financial institutions division income side. The income is flat year-on-year but the lending has grown quite a lot. Is this -- how much of this is a function of lower margins and have we, in your opinion, now seeing the trough so to say in the lending side and should we expect this to start to increase? Also on a follow-up question on the same, you mentioned that you had the negative value adjustments on the financial income in LCFI. How much was the figure in Q1?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [16]

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Sorry, could you repeat the second half of the question please?

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Matti Ahokas, Danske Bank Markets Equity Research - Head of Equity Research-Finland [17]

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The first question or the second?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [18]

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The second.

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Matti Ahokas, Danske Bank Markets Equity Research - Head of Equity Research-Finland [19]

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How much was -- you mentioned that you had some negative value adjustments that -- so that the 9.7% ROE in the LCFI is not the actual figure that one should…

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [20]

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Okay. I'll try to do both. On the first one, there has been margin pressures on the loan book. Credit spreads have gone down significantly over the last 2, 3, 4 years. And as you know, we have an average maturity of that, let's call it, 2 to 3 years, maybe even a bit longer for certain areas. So it takes time for the whole thing to reprice and for the last years it's been repricing at a tighter credit spread. That part I would say that it's stabilized lately on a low level. So, the margin pressure measured as credit spreads, it doesn't feel like it's continuing, but it's not materially improving. So, we're not calling the uptick, rather just calling that maybe as you said trough. But that's a little bit of a brave statement of course and in certain areas they just can't go lower because they are so very low. We've also had a slightly improved mix in the lending book. So, we did see, last year, a more active market when it comes to lending in acquisition finance driven deals. So the private equity space, taking company's private or switching assets within the financial sponsors, has been very active and interesting. We've had some pockets here where we've done really, really well. That is a not a margin increase, that's a catching the opportunity out there improvement, where you actually get to have the more meaningful part of your balance sheet deployed in higher yielding assets. It's very quiet on the investment grade side and as you know there's -- from there there's a lot of the pressure coming. When it comes to my comment about it feels better in LC&FI than we kind of note on the return on equity of 9.7, I'll answer it like this. We've said that the quarter had a resolution fee cost to the bank of SEK 211 million. We've said that reduced deductibility on subordinated debt has a yearly effect of SEK 360 million negative. The market valuations on the [XVA] for the bank, I'm saying the least, is minus SEK 284 million. If you add them together, you get a very meaningful number and a very meaningful part of that is for the LC&FI division. I don't think I can be more specific than that as we we've not broken out the numbers by division. And I'm again looking at Jan-Erik, if you want to add something.

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [21]

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No, again I think you captured it. I mean it is absolutely right, the majority of that, it's in the LCFI division. So and -- well, it is the detail, but when you say lowering of the deductibility on subordinated debt interest, it's actually taken away completely. It's an abolishment of deductibility.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [22]

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Yes. So, it's a tax increase I think we say of equivalent of 2% increase from 23% to 25%-ish.

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [23]

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That is right.

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Operator [24]

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And your next question comes from Riccardo Rovere.

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [25]

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My first question is again, if I can get back one second on the repricing of the corporate book. Just to be just try to be a bit more precise, out of something like SEK 500 billion corporate book how much do you think you can tackle in terms of repricing, 30% of that, 50% of or whatever? The second question I have is, I notice that an immense jump in assets under custody this quarter to SEK 7.4 trillion, almost SEK 7.5 trillion from SEK 6.9 trillion. And now it's so there is a difference of SEK 600 billion in only 3 months. I was wondering what that is and if there is no fun in that numbers, how -- what portion of this immense amount of money you can eventually convert into assets under management over time? And the third question I have is on the PD models, if you can share with us when you think you're going to get the approval, what the impact is going to be and the same thing on IFRS 9.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [26]

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Okay. We'll divide it between us. I'll start with the repricing of the SEK 500 billion book. First is over 3 years you have had the opportunity to reprice most of it because there's not a percentage point of it, it's kind of the natural repricing will happen as and when a engagement matures. But as you also probably heard, I'm indicating there's not a very large repricing uptick right now but the drop that we've seen coming with -- coming to market often up until now has meant that you enjoy a lower credit spread than you previously did and that of course hurts our NII. Some of the margins, but very few in this bank, are actually administratively set in the corporate space for the mass market. Was that okay on the first question?

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Riccardo Rovere, Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Research Analyst [27]

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Yes, yes. That's okay. Although I was wondering whether in your previous statement you were flagging that on the large corporate side even the ample liquidity in the market is basically not -- repricing is not going to happen or something like that. This is the message I got, but I'm not sure I got it correctly.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [28]

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I am. I'm saying exactly that. I think it's very difficult in the current market to reprice large corp investment grade. It is probably got -- if I sit here and talk about this in the quarter or -- and year end, it's going to be the mix of our lending book if anything that could explain why we developed. The volume is, of course, is also an unknown factor here. We could really -- we do make some good money when clients are active in more transformative ways and we haven't seen that. So, we call it sometimes the elephants where we really have to stomp off and help our clients. You were asking whether --

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [29]

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Okay. The assets under custody, Riccardo, is if you look back in the fact book back to the quarters from 2015, you have -- we peaked at SEK 7.6 trillion worth of assets under custody and of course and then we troughed at SEK 6.4 trillion during last year. So the biggest reasons for that is market variations and high equity portion of that. And then it's combined with market, with inflow of new things and of course now, when we have total new custody platform out in the market, we are hopefully getting -- capturing more market share in that segment. Regarding the conversion in assets under management, I think that is not a strong coordination between those two of assets and it's two different business lines and two different set of offerings. So, you shouldn't make too kind of strong case between those two.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [30]

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Then perhaps Riccardo I'll pick up on the last question on the PD models. And I think you asked about IFRS 9 as well. If I start with the PD models, we -- I met with the regulator yesterday, as we always do ahead of launching our results and I think we are on track with our application of the models and we expect them to be coming back and finalizing that work during the summer. In terms of effect, we are looking for 0.4 or 0.25 basis points improvement on the ratio from that account (inaudible), but that's the best estimate so to speak. And we will also put aside, as you know, a 15.5 today, that's today's value so to speak of the risk exposure amount offer that we put aside in our balance sheet that last year out was -- well a bit over a year ago. For those two things, I expect to be actually coming our way during the summer. Then in terms of the IFRS 9 effect, we are not commenting on the -- on that yet, but we will come back later in the year just on the back of as soon as we start to throw numbers around there, then they will be out there. And I think we need to be a little bit further down the road of all the modeling before we do that. What I would say though is that I don't expect that to come out unfavorably against the sort of the market median on that, I think we will come up on the better half.

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Operator [31]

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And your next question comes from Jan Wolter.

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Jan W. Wolter, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Banks Research [32]

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Jan Wolter here, Credit Suisse. Just a couple of questions follow up from the conference in Stockholm. First, the capital is solid and I think you, earlier in the day, alluded to the strong capital position without saying much more around it, but I do understand it's too early to talk about capital repatriation. But just conceptually right now, the safety margin is around 150 basis points. Is that in your view still the reasonable buffer that the bank should run with? So that's the first part of the question. And secondly, do you see enough growth opportunities to argue for the board at some point that excess capital should be kept in the bank and used for growth rather than pay it back or how do you view that dynamic? So that's my first question please.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [33]

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Okay. I can start. When it comes to repatriation or share buybacks or dividend, there is no such plan. Of course we are getting up to a 2% buffer with the numbers that we now showed, similar to Q4, and -- but I think the -- it's always a ultimate question for the board, I guess, but I think there is a particular acceptance for the buffer to a bit higher given some of the uncertainties that we are facing. And those stem from two places, first with the -- for the next resolution fee rounds, and/or another bank tax and what it means for profit and repricing or pass-through to clients. When you have those really fundamental things around you, you actually like to have a little bit more buffer rather than less. And secondly, it is part of the transformation agenda, there is no lack of identifiable disruptors. So, it could be growth that this money also could be, of course, allocated towards, but it could also be forward leaning in the digital concept that we actually want to have a little bit of extra cushion seeing who is going to be successful here. And as you've probably seen, we're launching now quite a lot of new things in the bank. And Erik, do you want to add something to that?

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [34]

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Well no, not really. I agree with everything you said obviously, but may just to say that the conceptually as you say you are on a -- I mean the willingness to repatriate capital, it's too early to talk about it really. But conceptually that willingness is there provided we have a couple of things in place and one is regulatory clarity, including the points that Johan raised on taxes and resolution policies and regulation and also that we have political acceptance around in society to repatriate capital from the banking sector. And I think we're getting there on both counts, but not quite yet.

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Jan W. Wolter, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Head of European Banks Research [35]

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And then the final one was just if you could update us on the sensitivity for 100 bps higher short rates and then also say whether or not that sensitivity include the effect from the (inaudible).

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [36]

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Yes, Jan they do. When we talk about it, they do include that effect and what we said and we stick to it, is that on the downside, not that we believe in a downside from here, but if there was a downside, it'll be something like SEK 3.8 billion for 100 basis points, whereas on the upside it's more like SEK 2 billion for 100 basis points. And I think you may see us, when we go forward, adjust that number somewhat upwards to solve those -- the continued large deposit intake into the bank. But we are sticking with that number for the time being.

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Operator [37]

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And your next question comes from Ronit Ghose.

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Ronit Ghose, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD, Head of European Banks Research and Global Sector Head for Banks [38]

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It's Ronit from Citigroup. I had two questions, one is a boring specific one and one is a bigger picture one. So let's -- I guess, let me throw the boring specific one out first. In the other elimination, the net financial income, so the trading line, whatever you call these, that was an unusually big number. I know you just called out consistency of the overall group trading income being very consistent, but could you just talk a little bit more around that, the 572 number in other elimination? How -- you refer -- you call out liquidity portfolio gains in your release and when I am thinking about the next few quarters, I mean that number has been more like couple of 100 -- it's been all over the place, couple of SEK 100 million usually. So, what's the right run rate to think about on that one, that's the -- I don't know if Jan Erik would want to take that one. But the second one, which is a bigger picture question aimed at the new CEO, really thinking about the CEO transition. I mean Annika has run this bank forever, and of course, you've got very strong team there, and things don't change just because the CEO changes. But over the decade plus that Annika ran the bank, before in the 1990s, SEB was perhaps maybe seen as more of a volatile, inefficient bank and you became associated with much more consistency and higher efficiency. And if you think ahead 10 years and if you're lucky enough, you want to get 10 years running this bank, how will you look back? What were the biggest change over the next 10 years? Is it the whole technology space? Is it the digital challenge? Is it something else completely? What's the kind of the big transformation or the big change that you'll have to wrestle with over the coming decade?

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [39]

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I'll talk on the first nerdy question while Johan is digesting your second one. And I think on the other eliminations in the trading line, it's just a -- I mean you saw a bit over 500 in this quarter and you had something like close to 200 in the last quarter. So I think we're pointing in the report to I think similar things that I've seen probably have happened in the other banks that have reported during this week, and it's basically two headings. One is the market variations for the liquidity portfolios and it's the anomalies in the market where treasury operates as a result of the negative interest rate environment where there's just been ability to fund and to execute it in a very optimal way during this quarter. So it's really those two things. Maybe if you're looking for a run rate, it's somewhere in that (inaudible) between Q4 and Q1.

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Ronit Ghose, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD, Head of European Banks Research and Global Sector Head for Banks [40]

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So I just average the two and take that?

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Jan Erik Back, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CFO and EVP [41]

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No, you will have to figure out your own level there, Ronit. I'm not going to give you any more values than that.

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Ronit Ghose, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD, Head of European Banks Research and Global Sector Head for Banks [42]

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Okay.

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [43]

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Okay, I'm now leaning back, thinking big picture here. I think the 1990s characterization is fair and I think it would be one of the most disastrous things ever if I could not earn the trust to maintain what we have achieved over the last 12 years with Annika and that is from a volatile and unpredictable to transparent, predictable, stable and well understood. It's also a matter of doing what we say we do. And I think that's becoming more important understanding valuations in this industry, you get very heavily penalized. And I have been part of the Group Executive Committee for some time and I stand behind what Annika has done lately 100%, fully aware that we all need to get to know each other. And now don't underestimate the bank and don't overestimate the CEO. This is a well established modus operandi over the last decade which you do not change and we have no willingness or ambition to do so. Looking if I get the luxury to do this for 10 years, I think we could sit on a call like this and if we do well or if we do poorly could be described to a certain meaningful extent by two things. More and more things are becoming commoditized. It is more difficult from when I started 20 years ago to have an easy way to affect the price. Hence you are now going to have to be operationally efficiency. I mean we all like operational efficiency, productivity gains, these are really characteristics of typical industrials, now commonplace in banks. We look at the same -- in the same way of unit labor cost and these are kind -- quite a new concepts for financial services industry but that's where we're going. If you can conduct a successful business and every year outperform your competitors 0.5% or 1% on the cost line or in productivity, you would win. And here some brave bets needs to come from banks in the future on what information technology to buy, to use, and how to deploy it and can you do it successfully. The other area is client standing. So we have a very strong belief that technology is great but it is twice as important in combination with people. So, you cannot only think that digital will replace insightful discussions and emotions of conducting business with each other. So we frame that often as advisory capabilities. So in tandem with deploying information technologies goes an increase demand on insights because I think these two will be the two metrics and I really strive to make this bank the best in the kind of marketplace where we operate. Strong customer relationships driven by advisory approach and technological excellence. That is not too different from the past, but they're all going to come into crunch time. You have to make some decision and I think we've just started.

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Operator [44]

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And your next question comes from Jacob Kruse.

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Jacob Max Kruse, Autonomous Research LLP - Partner, Scandinavian Banks [45]

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It's Jacob from Autonomous. I just I wanted to ask you on your -- on this digital thing you were discussing, you had a slide showing that the branch visits were down from -- I guess, by about 60% since 2012 and I think your branch network has been cut by about 3% or 5% in that time. So I guess my two questions are firstly, do you think you need to make some changes there. And secondly, how low does this branch visit number need to go before you basically rethink the logic of having a national branch network at all? And my second question, I guess on the same topic, when you look at your internal processes, how much of those would you say are automated at this point, and how much time or how many staff FTEs are spent on processing and handling the data that gets created in your business? And then just a quick, do you give your NSFR ratio or could you guide us to roughly where your NSFR stands at the moment?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [46]

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There was a few questions there. Thank you very much. First, I'll start by saying I enjoyed your piece on the minimum banking and I'm sure that the 17 branches I think you said (inaudible) -- you said there were 1,100 was a very thought provoking idea, thank you for that. I think we are between a hard rock and a hard place when it comes to the branches, but direction is clear. We are currently having -- we've halved the number of visits in the branches in the last 5 years, we're down to less than 200,000 visits a quarter. And now we just recorded a 50 million touch points with our clients on the mobile only. In this context, Internet not mobile, fixed places on desks, is not growing, it's actually marginally declining. And the telephonic services that we provide is stable at a very high level, 2.5 million client contacts a year. So, we are of course viewing and following these patterns very closely. And it is a very challenging thing to reduce the physical places you operate in the best way, not at least because you don't have a homogeneous client base right now. You have the majority just want digital and mobile, and a minority who is a very strong minority, and you hear their voices everywhere, want to maintain the physical presence. We're reducing, we will continue to reduce. I also want to insert a complicated picture. We have a relatively speaking -- when you think about retail banking, we have a relatively large SME and mid corporate and corporate banking which have not at all the same characteristics as private individuals. There the physical meeting place is a still much more important prospect for the future. The corporates do not use online and mobile banking to the same extent. And even if they do, which they do in many areas such as trading and payments, they do not reduce their demand on individuals and meeting. So it's actually just being able to process double, triple the amount of transactions without costing anything more and without reducing the opportunity for clients to meet up and talk advisory topics. And so that's just complicating the picture. As where we have done very well lately, it's in the SME and mid corp. We have 170,000 corporate clients now beneath the level we call large cap, which is typically SEK 5 billion to SEK 10 billion of sales and there the dynamic is very different. But of course, there is a lot of -- we've just launched a concept store, inspired by some of the more tech-savvy companies to completely reshape the idea of having flagship stores and places to meet. And everyone is playing around with things like pop up stores and we've introduced a bank bus. So, we don't need to be physically in a fixed place, we drive around and you can see us there depending on demand. But all this being said, the direction is clear, there is a lower requirement to be in physical places all over. But we are not the largest retail bank in this country. Internal process you asked, I just -- I can't quantify the number of people here off the cuff, but I'll say I think this is a big opportunity for us. So what we've done very successfully is launching new things to the client. We are reviewing now many of the largest internal processes. We've had massive efforts, energy and time spent on them and parallel to what we are launching for our current base, but it's of course not visible. We're launching internal operational efficiencies. And you have seen, for example, FTE reductions in LC&FI to the tune of 20% over the last few years, from 2,400 people now we're doing 2,000, and these are some of them very much in between this technical development and the real insight on advise. We can reduce there. You don't see it on the cost line because we redeploy that in new investments in information technology and that's very much in line with our strategy, freeing up as much we can to have forward leaning investment being materialized in the bank. And maybe on NSFR and (inaudible), the -- we have migrated to compliance of the last few years and today we are where we need to be. And we haven't disclosed the number, but we are in full compliance. Now NSFR has been postponed as you know from 2018 1st of January to what we believe is probably 2021. So it's -- but we are already there. So you won't see any negative effects on the P&L coming out of any further migration.

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Operator [47]

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And your next question comes from Adrian Cighi.

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Adrian Cighi, RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division - Equity Associate [48]

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This is Adrian Cighi from RBC. A lot of discussion on the corporate repricing and why it is very difficult to reprice the corporate book in the current environment. I have a follow-up question to this, I believe, especially on the interest rate sensitivity of this book once the interest rates actually go up. Do you see the increase this intermediation process you were talking about at the beginning as potentially offsetting your ability to reprice some of these corporates once interest rates actually go up? And do you incorporate this in your SEK 2 billion sensitivity estimates if so?

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Johan Torgeby, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - CEO, President and Director [49]

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Okay, I will try to answer it. There is -- it's not a meaningful effect that we have taken into account should the bond market in an increasing rate environment be so significantly developed that it actually hurts the big book, the SEK 500 billion, I'm going to actually tell SEK 1,000 billion if we expand the definition of what we have on the books. And it will of course on the margin give us more fees and commission as we are one of the leading DCM or data rangers in the regions where we operate. So I wouldn't do an adjustment really of any meaningful size to think about an increase in interest rates. Of course increasing the net interest income you would receive from lending and tailing it off in any meaningful size because of disintermediation. However, I would have a little bit of differentiation on fees and commission between banks who actually will cover capture that momentum that we have seen. But it's much smaller numbers, of course, if you look what banks are making. I mean we do have a very interesting reference point. I think the U.S. we typically say that's a 75% of the capital in the fixed income credit space is raised in the bond market, 25% by banks and yes, a little bit old data but the inverse, the reverse relationship in Europe. So we've talked about it for decades and I think it's slowly, slowly happening but very slowly.

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Operator [50]

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There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

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Jonas Söderberg, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) - Head of IR [51]

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Okay, we have spent an hour together and thank you lots for all the questions and also for listening into the press conference early this day. If there are any further questions, just reach out to us in the IR team and we will support you. And so thank you for today and see you out there.

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Operator [52]

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Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.