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Edited Transcript of SJM earnings conference call or presentation 26-Feb-19 1:30pm GMT

Q3 2019 J M Smucker Co Earnings Call

ORRVILLE Mar 19, 2019 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of J M Smucker Co earnings conference call or presentation Tuesday, February 26, 2019 at 1:30:00pm GMT

TEXT version of Transcript

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Corporate Participants

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* Aaron Broholm

The J. M. Smucker Company - VP of IR

* David J. Lemmon

The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks

* Joseph Stanziano

The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee

* Mark R. Belgya

The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO

* Mark T. Smucker

The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director

* Tina Floyd

The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Consumer Foods

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Conference Call Participants

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* Akshay S. Jagdale

Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst

* Andrew Lazar

Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - MD & Senior Research Analyst

* Bryan Douglass Spillane

BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - MD of Equity Research

* Christopher Robert Growe

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Analyst

* David Christopher Driscoll

Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and Senior Research Analyst

* Jason M. English

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - VP

* John Joseph Baumgartner

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division - VP and Senior Analyst

* Kenneth B. Goldman

JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Senior Analyst

* Laurent Daniel Grandet

Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division - Senior Analyst and MD of the Consumer & Retail Team

* Rebecca Scheuneman

Morningstar Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst

* Robert Bain Moskow

Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Research Analyst

* Robert Frederick Dickerson

Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Research Analyst

* Rose V. Lauricella

Morgan Stanley, Research Division - Research Associate

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Presentation

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Operator [1]

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Good morning, and welcome to The J. M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

I will now turn the conference call over to Aaron Broholm, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

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Aaron Broholm, The J. M. Smucker Company - VP of IR [2]

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Good morning, and thank you for joining us on our fiscal 2019 third quarter earnings conference call. Mark Smucker, President and CEO; and Mark Belgya, Vice Chair and CFO, will provide our prepared comments. Also participating in the Q&A are Tina Floyd, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Consumer Foods; Dave Lemmon, President, Pet Food and Pet Snacks; and Joe Stanziano, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Coffee.

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements in this morning's press release, which is located on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. Additionally, please note the company uses non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally as detailed in the press release. We have posted to our website a supplementary slide deck summarizing the quarterly results and fiscal 2019 full year outlook. The slides can be accessed through the link to the webcast of this call and will be archived on our website along with a replay of this call. If you have additional questions after today's call, please contact me.

I will now turn the call over to Mark Smucker.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [3]

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Thank you, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. It was great to see many of you last week at CAGNY, and we appreciated the opportunity to provide an update on our strategy and preliminary thoughts on fiscal 2020 financial guidance.

Our outlook across the businesses reinforces why we remain excited about the long-term prospects for delivering on our 3 key financial priorities of top line growth, prudent cost management and delivering earnings per share growth. Our efforts to position our business for growth and execute on our priorities continued to pay off this quarter.

We achieved year-over-year sales and gross margin growth ahead of our projections, and adjusted earnings per share came in better than our expectations through favorable SD&A.

Overall, we are very pleased with the third quarter results and the momentum we are starting to build to advance our consumer-centric strategy.

We delivered strong sales performance for our growth brands, which increased 17% in the quarter.

We also achieved strong growth for some of our leading brands, our core brands, demonstrating our ability to increase sales for both core and growth brands.

Multiple brands in our pet business achieved double-digit sales growth, including Rachael Ray Nutrish, Meow Mix, Kibbles 'n Bits and Nature's Recipe.

Further, Smucker's Uncrustables and Sahale Snacks also realized double-digit sales growth, while Dunkin' coffee achieved 9% sales growth, including strong performance across premium bag and the recently launched canister offerings.

Notably, Folgers within the U.S. Retail Coffee segment was flat in the quarter.

Collectively, the gains were partially offset by weakness for Folgers in the International Away From Home business, Natural Balance and declines related to the planned exit of certain private label pet food and Gravy Train wet dog food products.

Excluding the Ainsworth acquisition and prior year net sales attributed to the divested baking business, organic net sales increased 1% compared to the prior year.

Our adjusted earnings per share performance reflects net sales growth, gross margin improvement, achievement of acquisition synergies and the benefit of consolidating certain geographic locations.

Additionally, marketing spend was below our initial expectations because certain expenses shifted to the fourth quarter as delayed retailer shelf resets slowed some innovation launches and related support.

But despite this shift, marketing spend was up over $30 million compared to the prior year, reflecting the addition of Ainsworth and innovation support for the base businesses.

With growth in a number of areas contributing to our third quarter results, we continue to make progress on our 3 consumer-centric growth imperatives of leading in the best categories, building brands consumers love and being everywhere.

I'll share a few examples of how we are executing against this framework beginning with leading in the best categories. U.S. Retail Coffee segment sales growth was driven by the premium Dunkin' and 1850 brands.

Our total K-Cup sales continue to outpace the category with net sales up 4% in the third quarter. The 1850 brand -- the 1850 brand coffee continues to perform with repeat rates exceeding our initial projections and a 75% ACV. We are increasing emphasis on consumer trial through continued brand support.

Last week, we announced 2 new single-origin varieties to complement the current 1850 lineup, and we remain confident in continued growth for the platform, which leverages the heritage and authenticity of the Folgers brand to attract new consumers.

We are also strengthening the folder -- the Folgers brand with the upcoming launch of a new line of dark roast coffee under the Noir platform, filling a void in the canister segment for dark roast varieties.

Sales growth within our pet food segment reflected contributions from the Ainsworth acquisition. Momentum for the Nutrish and Nature's Recipe brands continued in the quarter with year-over-year sales growth of 23% and 11%, respectively, despite increased competitive activity.

Initial shipments of our pet treats innovation, primarily for the Milk-Bone and Nutrish brands began late in the third quarter, and we remain on track to achieve 3% to 4% incremental new points of distribution for the total pet business.

Finally, in the pet segment, due to sustained input cost inflation, we successfully implemented a price increase across our pet food portfolio effective this month.

Turning to our strategic imperative of building brands consumers love, we are following through on our commitment to increase marketing investments to support our innovation and growth brands.

As I mentioned, in the third quarter, our marketing expense increased over $30 million compared to the prior year. A higher level of marketing and innovation support, coupled with a more agile go-to-market approach, is critical to achieving an anticipated high single-digit net sales increase for growth brands over the next 5 years.

Combined net sales for growth brands are projected to increase 18% for the full 2019 fiscal year.

We will also continue to invest in core brands to achieve our net sales growth target. As we highlighted at the CAGNY conference last week, with updated marketing behind the mature Meow Mix brand, consumption increased over 4% since the campaign launch and net sales were up 10% in the third quarter.

The third growth imperative we are focused on is to be everywhere. How, where and when consumers shop is more than ever on demand and multichannel.

We think about both traditional and new retail channels as a single ecosystem, where our brands must stay current and break through among increasing choices for consumers.

Within the e-commerce channel, we have a strategic advantage by participating in fast-growing online categories. We continue to achieve very strong e-commerce growth in both coffee and pet food as our brands continue to keep pace with or exceed their respective category's online growth.

Within our Away From Home business, our focus is on branded offerings within these channels. For example, the upcoming launch of 1850 coffee in food service channels further supports our intent to be everywhere, having our brands available wherever consumers shop, eat or grab something on the go.

Also, with the launch of Jif portion control offerings, consumers will now be able to enjoy the #1 peanut butter brand in lodging and restaurants.

Finally, with respect to being everywhere, we are increasing consumer engagement through digital platforms in addition to traditional channels. Our digital efforts have been instrumental in connecting with consumers for 1850 and Jif Power-Ups.

In closing, we have a strong brand portfolio and are committed to maintaining investments, particularly in marketing, to deliver growth and strengthen our brands' connection with consumers.

The components of our strategy are coming together as thoughtful cost management, reinvestment in the business, reorganized commercial functions, including sales and marketing, and strong execution have created momentum for growth and increasing shareholder value. None of this would be possible without our great team of dedicated employees to execute this strategy, and I would like to thank all of them for their continued efforts.

I will now turn the call over to Mark.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [4]

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Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin by providing further detail on the impairment noted in our press release this morning.

Our third quarter GAAP results included a noncash charge of $107 million attributable to certain indefinite-life trademarks within the pet food segment. This reflects a strategic shift for certain brands from the Big Heart Pet Brands acquisition, resulting in a reduction of their long-term sales forecast.

Our long-term organic growth projection for the overall pet business remains unchanged, in part, due to the anticipated growth related to Rachael Ray Nutrish and innovation across the portfolio.

With that, let me now provide an overview of third quarter results. I will then conclude with an update on our full year outlook.

Adjusted EPS was $2.26 compared to $2.50 in 2018. There were several factors that affect comparability to the prior year's results, which I will note as I provide additional details on the quarter.

Net sales increased 6%, driven by the acquisition of Ainsworth. Excluding Ainsworth and the impact from the U.S. baking divestiture, net sales increased $14 million or 1%.

Favorable volume mix in coffee and consumer foods offset a $5 million foreign exchange headwind during the quarter, and net price realization was neutral.

Adjusted gross margin expanded to 38.6%, increasing 20 basis points compared to the prior year and a sequential improvement of 40 basis points over the prior quarter.

Excluding Ainsworth, which impacted gross margin by 50 basis points, and the margin benefit of divesting the baking business, the gross profit improvement was the result of favorable volume mix and lower cost.

SD&A increased $43 million or 13% compared to 2018. Marketing expenses increased $31 million or 31%, reflecting the addition of Ainsworth and support for recent product launches.

General and administrative expenses increased $5 million or 5%, reflecting the addition of Ainsworth, mostly offset by synergies and cost management benefits. Factoring in all of this, adjusted operating income increased $5 million or 1% compared to the prior year.

Below operating income, interest expense increased $9 million, driven by borrowing cost associated with the Ainsworth acquisition. A $4 million increase in other expense was driven by pension settlement and increased legal expense. The adjusted effective income tax rate was 25.8% in the quarter.

Let me now turn to segment's results, beginning with Coffee. Net sales increased 2% compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily attributed to the Dunkin' brand, driven by roast and ground in both bag and canister formats.

Sales for the Folgers brand inclusive of 1850 were unchanged from the prior year as higher volume mix was offset by lower pricing through increased trade spend as lower green coffee costs are being passed through to consumers.

Coffee segment profit increased 1%, reflecting the favorable volume mix and the net benefit of price and cost, which more than offset a 47% increase in marketing spend.

In Consumer Foods, net sales increased 4% excluding the non-comparable sales related to the divested U.S. baking business, with both Jif and Smucker's up compared to the prior year.

Sales for the Smucker's brand was driven by Uncrustables, which increased 12%, more than offsetting declines in Fruit Spreads.

Net sales for Jif increased 5%, reflecting the contribution from Power-Ups and volume mix gains in peanut butter. Sahale Snacks sales increased 63%, driven by gains in volumes mix and favorable net pricing.

Segment profit decreased 21% in the quarter. Excluding the prior year profits from the U.S. baking business, segment profit declined 6% due to increased marketing on Jif Power-Ups and costs associated with the construction of the new Uncrustables facility.

Turning to the pet food segment. Net sales increased 35%, reflecting the addition of Ainsworth. Excluding Ainsworth, net sales were flat to the prior year, although the planned exit of certain private label offerings and the planned discontinuation of Gravy Train wet dog food products impacted sales by 3% or $19 million. Nutrish sales increased 23% compared to the prior year with robust growth across all segments of dog food, cat food and snacks.

Gains in Meow Mix and Kibbles 'n Bits were partially offset by declines for Natural Balance and Milo's Kitchen. The decline in Natural Balance reflects ongoing softness in the pet specialty channel, which is not being offset by growth in e-commerce.

Pet food segment profit increased 26% compared to the prior year, again, driven by the profit contribution from Ainsworth. Excluding Ainsworth, segment profit was flat compared to the prior year.

And lastly, in the International & Away From Home segment, net sales declined 6% compared to the prior year. Volume mix declines, most notably for Folgers and Crisco, were partially offset by growth for Smucker's Uncrustables and portion control products.

Unfavorable FX, lower net price realization and noncomparable sales in the prior year from the divested baking business also contributed to the sales decline.

Segment profit decreased 2% as the impact of reduced volume mix and foreign exchange were partially offset by decreased marketing spend and the net benefit from lower pricing and cost.

Third quarter free cash flow was $333 million. This represented a $56 million decrease compared to the prior year, reflecting reduced benefits from working capital improvements, primarily driven by inventory.

During the quarter, we repaid $300 million of long-term debt while increasing our short-term borrowings by $114 million. This resulted in a net debt reduction of $186 million and a debt balance of $6.1 billion as of January 31.

Based on the trailing 12-month EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, our leverage ratio stands at 3.8x.

Let me conclude my comments with an update on our full year outlook. As noted in this morning's press release and last week at CAGNY, we maintain our full year guidance. Expectations for net sales and gross margin remain unchanged with fiscal year net sales of $7.9 billion and estimated gross margin of 38%.

Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $8.00 to $8.20. Key factors included in this forecast include better-than-anticipated third quarter results, a shift in certain marketing expenses from the third quarter to the fourth, the price decline on Jif Peanut Butter effective in March and a full year tax rate of 26%, reflecting a fourth quarter rate comparable to the third quarter.

Our projections for free cash flow remains in the range of $700 million to $750 million, with CapEx estimated at $350 million to $370 million.

In closing, let me reiterate that we're very pleased with this quarter's results and feel confident in delivering on our guidance for the year. Thank you for your time this morning, and we'll now open up the call to your questions.

Operator, could you please queue up the first question?

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

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Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - MD & Senior Research Analyst [2]

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First question would just be, you noted some shifting of marketing spend from 3Q to 4Q. Was there any other shifting? The top line, obviously, was quite a bit better, particularly in consumer, than we had modeled with the underlying, as you mentioned, being up 4%. I didn't know if there was anything that shifted in relation to either the change in the cadence of SNAP spending to consumers or things of that nature that might have affected inventory at retailers one way or the other. Just trying to get a sense of the sustainability of the type of trends that you showed, particularly in consumer on the top line.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [3]

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It's Mark Belgya. Thanks for the question. I would say that we would not call out anything specific to SNAP or any other specified programs. We obviously overdelivered sales in coffee and the business generally above what we thought, but there was nothing significant. One thing I might just take the opportunity to call out as we do look to the fourth quarter on the P&L. So you had mentioned and we have mentioned an increase in marketing, so that will certainly be a little bit of a flip between the 2 quarters.

And then we'll also see the impact of the new pricing on peanut butter that will go into effect in the fourth quarter in March, the higher tax rate. And then although it was forecast originally but kind of new news to you guys is that with the construction at Longmont, we're going to see a step-up in those costs in Q4 over last year's Q4 of about $0.04. So those, whatever it was, 3 or 4 factors are things that you guys can just consider as you think through your fourth quarter outlook. But to the original question, I would say there was nothing significant that we would call out as a timing difference other than the marketing.

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Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - MD & Senior Research Analyst [4]

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Great. And then just the second one would be sustainability of pet segment margins. Obviously, a very big step forward, a leap forward from where you were in fiscal 1H. Certainly, part of that, I know, is the synergies that are flowing through from Ainsworth and such. But even when you adjust out some of the inventory step-up from Q1, the progress in pet margins was much more significant than we had modeled. So just want to get a sense of your confidence there in the sustainability of the margin structure moving forward in pet.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [5]

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It's Dave Lemmon here. I would say that we're really pleased with our margin progression on the business. Q3, we were 19.4% versus Q2 of 17%. So saw great progression against margins. You mentioned synergy capture, but I would just say that as we move to the back half, we expect to capture the bulk of the synergy related to year 1 in the back half. So that would be one thing contributing to our margin expansion. The other thing is that we've just taken a price increase on food. But we have the benefit of the price increase on snacks and Natural Balance in -- throughout the fiscal that would help our margins. And then just sort of thinking longer term, we have network optimization, which is going to be kicked off later this fiscal; portfolio management, we'll continue with things like you saw our action on Gravy Train wet; and then we plan to launch margin-accretive innovation that will also help our margin. So we feel really good that the margin levels that we see today will be sustained, if not enhanced.

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Operator [6]

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Our next question comes from David Driscoll of Citi.

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David Christopher Driscoll, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and Senior Research Analyst [7]

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Just wanted to confirm, Mark Belgya, that the Uncrustable facility startup, you said that that was -- I think you said it was $0.04 per quarter on a go-forward basis until your -- I think you just said next quarter. But I would assume that's $0.04 per quarter until you finish the startup. Is that correct? Or is it just $0.04 next quarter?

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [8]

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Hey Dave, it's Mark. It was -- that quote was specifically to fourth quarter of this coming year. We'll give you more color on the total costs -- we did -- as you recall, we did call Longmont expenses out as impacting both fiscal '20 as well. But we'll hold off until June. But the $0.04 was just specific to Q4 of this fiscal.

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David Christopher Driscoll, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and Senior Research Analyst [9]

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Okay. And then on pet food, you called out the asset impairment and you said that overall, your expectations are not changed. But an asset impairment means that management's lowered the revenue expectations, which is why you get the impairment. What was the counterbalance right there? Did you actually raise your expectations for Rachael Ray? And then related to things in pet, are you exiting all the private label pet food that Ainsworth did? And just what's the implication of that on the business?

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [10]

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Okay. Dave, it's Mark, again. I'll start, and then I'll let Dave also speak. So let me just kind of ground everyone on the impairment. So the impairment was specific to trademarks, and I could give you all a lesson here, but trademarks are based upon future top line growth, where goodwill is based on profitability. So the trademark implication or impairment was due to, we've made some strategic decisions that Dave and team have been going through, his strategy, and that's for reducing top line forecasts for certain brands. That drove the trademark impairment that we took this quarter.

We feel that long term, because of the addition and the profitability of Ainsworth and all the things that Dave has talked about or will talk about, we think that the profitability and the top line growth is still good, where we are not facing a goodwill charge. So right now, the only thing was on the trademark. As we have consistently said in our 10-Q, and our 10-Q will be issued later today, and I would just direct you all to read that, is that we do note that because fair value and book value are close, that any significant changes in any future forecast could result or would result in additional impairment. But right now, we feel the base business with all the growth opportunities should not cause a goodwill impairment this time.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [11]

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And Dave, just to answer your question on private label. We're still very committed to the private label business. As you know, we pack sort of the premium private label on dry dog and sort of the value equation on wet cat. The exits were planned exits related to the legacy business on pet -- on private label pet. But the -- all the business that's associated with APN. And we'll continue to service those customers and meet their needs.

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Operator [12]

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And our next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

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Kenneth B. Goldman, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Senior Analyst [13]

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First question is on Natural Balance. And I know this question has been asked before. I'm just hoping for an update on your thoughts. A few years ago, it was Natural Balance and Blue Buffalo, and those were the sort of big hitters, at least perception-wise, at the super premium and in pet superstores. And since then, your big competitor, Blue, has made a lot of choices that have grown and are about to grow its sales pretty dramatically. And I think those are the right choices in many ways because of what we're seeing with pet superstores.

And I don't feel like Natural Balance has made those same choices. So I'm just curious, is it too late for Natural Balance brand to sort of expand its distribution platform, if you will? Have you made some mistakes there? What do you think the options are for it to grow? Because it was such a great brand, and I feel like we just don't hear much about it anymore. It's sort of been put on the back burner.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [14]

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Yes. Ken, it's Dave Lemmon here. I would say, as I said on previous calls, we're not happy with the performance on Natural Balance. But -- and we're going to continue to be a consumer-led brand in the pet specialty arena. So we're committed to that channel, and we will be committed to that channel for the longer term. And we have what I feel is a strong plan to turn the results around. But it won't happen overnight, I would say. But in the near term, we're celebrating our 30th-year anniversary of the brand. So we have a lot of display and promotional activity behind the brand coming in Q4 or through the first half of next fiscal. We're relaunching the Ultra brand with new graphics and a focus on L.I.D. We're focusing on pet specialty and regaining back our store-level recommendations, which are critical to the brand.

And then over the longer term, we're focused on a new marketing strategy that will drive brand awareness and increase household penetration and bring new users into the franchise. And lastly, I would say that we're really focused on our e-com strategy and building the brand in this important channel through a pricing strategy that meets the needs of the channel and through innovation that meets the needs of the channel. So we think with the combination of those 5 or 6 factors that I've outlined that we will be able to return the business to growth.

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Kenneth B. Goldman, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Senior Analyst [15]

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Can I use my second question for a follow-up to that? I don't quite understand. I understand there's a new marketing strategy. I understand the emphasis on e-com. But why the reliance still on pet specialty? And why -- you say there is a good plan to turn it around. What is that plan? And pet specialty, it's no secret, is heading south. I don't think anyone really is expecting it to start growing very quickly again. In the meantime, there is arguably a missed opportunity in food/drug mass that your biggest competitor has taken. And I don't quite understand why you're letting all that shelf space go to your biggest competitor.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [16]

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Well, I'd say a couple things. The first thing is that as a brand, we've chosen to have it sold only in that channel and exclusive to that channel. Indy pet is still growing and growing quite nicely. Big box retailers in the pet specialty arena are declining, but we think that there is growth to be had in the indy pet. And as the pet specialty sort of pushes out on Petco's announcement with being focused on ingredients and so forth, we think that we're -- we want to stay committed to the brand and that -- in the pet specialty arena. And that will be our go-forward position.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [17]

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And Ken, it's Mark Smucker. I guess I would just add, there's been a lot of focus on this brand, and of course, I think, Dave outlined very well what the turnaround plan is. But we've got, clearly, a lot of effort and work to do in the mainstream channels with Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, both of which are continuing to perform and, in aggregate, are much larger than the Natural Balance opportunity. And they fill a -- I would say, a unique spot in the premium tier where you've got some of the other competition as I highlighted, I think, at CAGNY last week. It's a very broad-priced category. So we've got -- there's plenty of room, I think, for these multiple competitors to play. And we're going to remain focused on that. And we will, as David highlighted, make sure that we're doing the right things for the Natural Balance brand. But I -- we just feel like our strategy and the channels in which our brands play today is right.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [18]

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Ken, just -- this is Mark Belgya, not to pile on. But I think we also do have to keep in the context the relative size of Natural Balance. It's 10% of the entire pet business. So not to minimize the commentary and the question. But just for the benefit of everyone on the phone, just to dollar-ize that.

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Operator [19]

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Our next question comes from Chris Growe of Stifel.

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Christopher Robert Growe, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Analyst [20]

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I wonder if I could ask a follow-up question in terms of the marketing shift into the fourth quarter. Forgive me if I missed this, but do you -- have you said how much of it shifts from Q3 into Q4? Just to kind of get our models straightened away here.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [21]

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Chris, it's Mark -- Mark Belgya, sorry. Yes. We would say that the impact of marketing is about a $0.03 to $0.04 impact between Q3 to Q4.

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Christopher Robert Growe, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Analyst [22]

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Okay. So a relatively modest shift, it sounds like.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [23]

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Yes, yes.

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Christopher Robert Growe, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division - MD & Analyst [24]

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Okay, okay. And then just wanted to ask, there was -- there's been a lot of talk of accelerated sales growth in the month of January, in particular as SNAP benefits pushed back. And I know there's been some inventory build with some retailers. I just am curious, were you -- if that helped your quarter at all. Where you see your retail inventory levels overall? And any businesses that may have benefited from that phenomenon, if it occurred?

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Tina Floyd, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Consumer Foods [25]

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Yes. I think -- and this is Tina. You would think that peanut butter may have had some impact with regard to SNAP, but we didn't see really anything significant that would have changed anything within our peanut butter business.

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [26]

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Yes. This is Joe. I would say the same thing on coffee, pretty consistent as we move into the fourth quarter.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [27]

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And just generally, Chris, I would say nothing, as I said a little bit earlier, that would indicate anything specific to inventory changes at retailers or anything like that. It was pretty much a normal flow of goods throughout the end of the quarter.

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Operator [28]

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Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

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Bryan Douglass Spillane, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - MD of Equity Research [29]

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Just 2 questions. One, just related to the fourth quarter, the guidance for the fourth quarter, you've got still a pretty wide EPS range, but like a point estimate on revenues, tax rate. So just trying to understand what's the variability in the fourth quarter. Might it be timing, some of the marketing might shift to the first quarter of next year? Or -- just trying to understand what potential volatility there could be in the fourth quarter.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [30]

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Yes. Bryan. It's Mark. I would just say there's probably 3 or 4 things, I kind of commented on them. Certainly, the one that stands out the most is the -- just price decrease that goes effective next month. I mean, we've obviously factored in estimated price decline and volume gains and so forth. But until that's in market, we need to see that. But short of that, there is nothing, I would say, significant in that range. We have been consistent with that range throughout the year.

And what we tried to do, with my earlier comments to Andrew, was just give you a sense of the 3 or 4 things that you guys may not have had color on, as you think through your fourth quarter. But -- and certainly, the high end would just be continued benefits from innovation and just the continuation of the trends that we saw come out of Q3. So if there's anything, it was probably a little bit of conservatism built into that around the top line growth because we did overdeliver above our expectations.

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Bryan Douglass Spillane, BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division - MD of Equity Research [31]

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Okay. And then just to follow up on -- it's a pretty good result in coffee in the quarter, and looks like your K-Cups did pretty well as well. I think Keurig had probably a better merchandising around brewers for the fourth quarter. So was there any sort of notable change in the category or change in your business just related to some of the things that Keurig has done to try to stimulate household adoption?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [32]

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Yes. Bryan, it's Joe. I think we've been pretty consistent with how we've approached the K-Cup merchandising. We did have a good Q3, I would say. And we talked a little bit about it, I think, the last quarter. Some of the work that Keurig has done on the entry-level brewers has really helped us in key customers and key channels, especially for brands like the Folgers brand and seeing an adoption and an increased sales velocity in that brand. So we continue to be positive about all 4 of our brands in the K-Cup segment.

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Operator [33]

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Our next question comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

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Jason M. English, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - VP [34]

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I want to come back to pet real quick. Can you give us any quantification of the price increases that you're pushing through on the food side? And any indication of whether or not any of your big competitors like Mars, Nestle, et cetera, have led or followed?

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [35]

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Yes. I -- this is Dave Lemmon here, Jason. Thanks for the question. As you know, we follow on food. So it would be safe to say that our big, big competitors led on pricing. In terms of the volume impact, we've modeled that in, so all of the impacts with respect to volume have been reflected in our guidance for next quarter. And I'd just like to say, we took food up in the first quarter. We took Natural Balance up in the fourth quarter. So in effect, we've taken our entire lineup of pet food up in price over the last 12 months. So it's been a great job by the sales team and by selling it into our customers.

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Jason M. English, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division - VP [36]

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Great. Would love it, Dave, if you could give me any quantification of that price increase, if possible. And then my second question. You guys mentioned that you've overdelivered on coffee sales this quarter. Clearly, volume was very strong. Congratulations on that. It does, however, contrast with what we see in the Nielsen and IRI data. Can you give us any indication of where you're sourcing that volume, channel-wise?

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [37]

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Yes. Jason, it's Dave. Sorry, I didn't close the loop on that first question, but we won't be sharing the amounts that we took. But you can be safe to say that they were in line with our competitors.

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [38]

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Jason, it's Joe. Yes, from a coffee perspective, again, when we look at the third quarter from an IRI perspective, actually we did grow share in mainstream in the 12-week, up about 0.6 of a share point, driven mainly by the Dunkin' canister launch and Bustelo. However, Folgers Roast & Ground net sales were flat in the -- in Q3, and that is an improvement over Q1 and Q2. So while we continue to work on the Folgers core business, we're excited for the launch of the Folgers Noir product that you saw last week. We think that is really important innovation to bring into the mainstream canister category a line of dark roast product that really, we believe, is missing in that segment. So continue to work towards improvement there.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [39]

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Jason, this Mark Smucker. I guess I would just add a general comment about our support of these brands is, we've -- we're pretty happy with the results this quarter, particularly in the sense that we've seen multiple examples of when we put some support behind these core brands, we -- it responds. We've seen that with Meow Mix, Kibbles 'n Bits and then now more recently, seeing some improvement on Folgers. And so just a comment that it does work. The strategy does work.

And then also, as it relates to Jif, specifically, and Folgers, when you factor in 1850 and Jif Power-Ups, both of those are helping the brands. And so again, just more confirmation that we're doing the right things, and we're starting to see a little bit of momentum and see our strategy play out successfully. So I'll stop there.

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Operator [40]

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Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson of Deutsche Bank.

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Robert Frederick Dickerson, Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Research Analyst [41]

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I guess my first question is just on pet. Kind of more generally, it sounds like -- you said this morning, you expect new distribution points of 3% to 4%. I know last week, Dave, you kind of stated you didn't really expect that much share encouragement coming in mass or Blue just off of the data sets you've seen. So I'm just kind of curious, is it like others could be losing shelves? Like you could be losing some SKUs off of maybe larger bags or more mainstream, or retailers expanding category square footage? I'm just trying to get a sense of as to why you, specifically -- or let's say, other premium brands within mass would not lose share just if someone else comes in unless they're trying to premium up the entire category, and then others in mainstream are losing share. So I'm just -- kind of any general comments as to what you think plays out over the next 6 to 9 months in pet in mass?

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [42]

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Rob, I have a few comments I'd make, and just I'd start by saying that on previous calls, and it's further sort of supported now, we have limited interaction with Blue. And as we look at the data, we've coexisted for over a year now in many accounts, and both our Nutrish and Nature's Recipe brands have continued to maintain or grow share consistently over that time. Blue is much higher priced than both Nutrish and Nature's Recipe and is attracting a really different consumer base, I would say. It's the whole notion of super premium versus premium. And they attract a much -- a consumer who is willing to pay much, much more for food.

And then the last thing I would say is that we have a huge pipeline of innovation coming behind Nutrish and Nature's Recipe that will help sort of kind of insulate us from their entry. We are one of the only manufacturers or very few manufacturers to receive incremental shelf space or PODs. And it's because of our new platforms across both these brands. And then from a shelf space perspective, I'd just add that Blue is going to definitely add some pressure to the shelf space as they continue to cross over. It is yet to see who or what segments will be impacted by that. But if you want my opinion, I'd say that the shelf space will continue to come from, primarily, the value segments to a lesser extent than the mainstream segments as retailers continue their journey of trying to trade up the consumer to premium dog food and premium pet.

And I would anticipate the value segment being reduced through the elimination of duplication and that they will probably try and make that shelf space much more efficient moving forward, which we will try to take advantage of and we're well positioned for across our portfolio, offering both value, mainstream, premium and super premium. So we feel really good about how we're going to defend against Blue coming over to -- and continue to cross over into FDM.

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Robert Frederick Dickerson, Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Research Analyst [43]

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Okay. Fair enough. And then in terms of price decrease you mentioned forthcoming in peanut butter. I guess a simple question is, is that -- do you think that's the only category where you might have to lean in a little bit into pricing? It sounds like peanut butter is more list, but we have seen what seems like a little bit of heightened promotional activity in coffee. Some I'm just curious if there are other areas you think you might have to lean in into price. And then more specifically, on coffee, do you feel pretty centered, so to speak, as to where your pricing is now? Or could you potentially need to promote a bit into the spring?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [44]

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Rob, it's Joe. From a coffee perspective, we have, obviously, this year, kind of continued to reflect the green price and stayed very competitive on shelf. We're comfortable as we go into fourth quarter with our price and promotional strategy. Obviously, we continue to watch the green market as we go into next year. But as we sit here and look to fourth quarter, we feel like we're in a good place.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [45]

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Rob. It's Mark Belgya. Just maybe to conclude the question is that you recall coming into the year, we were talking about just overall cost. And we said that green coffee was going to be down. It's obviously continued to be, and to Joe's comments on how that's been passed through. And then -- but the rest of our costs, whether it was packaging, ingredients, et cetera, were up and most affecting Tina's business and Dave's business. So I think you've heard, we took the pricing on Dave's, and the only notable decrease in Tina's area is peanuts. And so we are -- as we said, we're passing that through. But otherwise, if you look at price having to come from cost supported, it's really green coffee cost and peanut cost are the 2 that are moving. The rest are -- they're where we expected. And thus wouldn't expect any cost-driven price change off of that.

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Robert Frederick Dickerson, Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division - Research Analyst [46]

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Okay, great. And then just one quick one for you, Mark, again, Belgya. It's just like why not have updated your guidance last week at CAGNY? I guess, that's the kind of the direct question, right, is Q3 obviously came in a lot better than people expected. Q4, what I'm hearing is there may have been some changes on peanut butter pricing that weren't expected for the year. The shift in marketing, $0.04, which isn't that much. I'm not hearing much other deltas for the year.

So I mean, I guess, maybe the answer is, "We'd just like to leave ourselves a cushion and be conservative. It's a competitive marketplace." But it seems like it's -- it may have been worthy of an increase in guidance, yet you just didn't do so. So I'm curious as to what the thinking was. That's it.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [47]

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Well, I guess what I would say, Rob, is that we still feel comfortable with the range. And we purposely did not release and get into Q3 results because we didn't want to use that format. We felt that that was important. That's a long-term strategy discussion at CAGNY. Wanted to save the commentary for here and just wanted to have this conversation. But I think we've presented that we feel good, that we will deliver within our guidance range. And I really don't have much more to add to that.

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Operator [48]

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Our next question comes from Akshay Jagdale of Jefferies.

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Akshay S. Jagdale, Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst [49]

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First one is for Mark Smucker. Just in terms of the sort of the long-term strategy, can you just tell us where price falls in your pricing strategy? Obviously, this year, one of the main reasons you've lowered your top line organic sales growth guidance is because of lower pricing in coffee, lower pricing in peanut butter, and now peanut butter pricing has gone even lower. So I know there is a lot of commodity pass-through. But at the end of the day, you've got these pretty aggressive organic growth targets for your main brands, and some of them are in, obviously, coffee, right?

So can you just level set us how like this year's results and overall just sort of these pass-throughs and strategic moves on pricing that seem to impact profit negatively in the short term play into your long-term strategy of sort of high-single growth for your leading brands?

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [50]

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Okay, Akshay. This is Mark Smucker. I guess, a couple things. First of all, our -- we've seen margin improvement this quarter. So -- and our profit is improving and we intend to manage dollar profit. As you know, we always say our goal is to grow year-over-year our profit dollars. And to the extent that we can achieve margin improvement, that obviously is a secondary goal. As it relates to just pricing in general, being able to take pricing up or down, particularly in categories that are commodity driven, is going to continue to be a very important part of our strategy. And to maintain credibility with our retail customers as well, we need to be somewhat transparent in terms of our -- when we are moving that it is cost driven.

And so as it relates to peanut butter specifically, we did actually take a pricing increase about a year ago, and we saw no one follow. And as peanut cost and the competition continues to be strong, we felt that the right thing for the business is to make sure that our pricing strategy is right, that our price gaps are right. And so that's really the reason for the move, and it will cause us to be more competitive. And -- but clearly, at the end of the day, bottom line, pricing is important. Our ability to do so is important, and we've got to maintain that credibility with our customers and, obviously, pass things along to the consumer when we can.

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Akshay S. Jagdale, Jefferies LLC, Research Division - Equity Analyst [51]

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That's useful. And just one follow-up on pet as it relates to your 2020 high-level top line guidance. So it looks like you're expecting an improvement in organic growth, obviously, pretty significant one in 2020 overall for the company, and pet's going to have to, obviously, improve significantly. Some of that is the innovation pipeline, right? But can you just give us a sense of the improvement in pet? How much of it is just innovation driving significant incremental growth? And more importantly, how all of that fits into the competitive dynamics, right? Like what I think people would like to hear is you're taking a conservative approach on velocities given the entry of Blue. But just high level, like how are you thinking about the improvement in pet organic growth over the next 12 months? And what are the puts and takes there?

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [52]

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Akshay, it's Dave Lemmon here. I would say to touch on your question around innovation, we have a huge pipeline of innovation coming in the fourth quarter, which will be supporting all of our segments, new platforms for growth, meaning like new territories we're taking the brands in terms of the segments, primarily focused around our snacks line, with Milk-Bone being sort of the anchor of that effort. But still lots of news on our food business around Nutrish, Meow Mix, Kibbles 'n Bits and so forth. We expect to deliver $100 million of net sales incremental against our innovation, all of which will primarily come next fiscal. We had a delay in the mod resets of this year. And so we expect the bulk of that to hit us in next fiscal.

I would say that retailer acceptance has been great so far. Most of the resets are launching later in the fourth quarter. We've grown PODs by -- you heard Mark say it, by 3% to 4% incrementally. So we have great sort of growth coming from a POD standpoint. And just on the other side, I would say that we expect organic growth from our brands, and we're going to deliver share growth through investing in our brands. And so sort of a balance between innovation and base business growth.

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Operator [53]

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Our next question comes from John Baumgartner of Wells Fargo.

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John Joseph Baumgartner, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division - VP and Senior Analyst [54]

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Just maybe for Joe, and maybe if Mark wants to jump in. In terms of Retail Coffee, when we look at premium, it's about 15% of your portfolio. It's where it was 5 years ago, and you're still under-indexed versus the category. And when we look at Nestle going out and acquiring Blue Bottle and Chameleon to kind of capture that millennial Gen Z consumer, how do you think about winning that jump ball in terms of developing brands internally versus augmenting with M&A? I guess, what's different in coffee versus the pet business?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [55]

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Yes. John, I can start, and then Mark can chime in. I mean, obviously, we've been focused on growing the premium side of the business. Obviously, the Dunkin' brand continues to grow, and we continue to support that. There's great upside ahead of us there. And the launch of 1850 was really to hit that squarely in the middle. And we've been 9 months into the launch now. We're very excited about what it's doing. But again, we're in the first inning here. We're going to be here for a long time. But we are doing the things we need to do.

The third quarter saw focus on more trial, and we saw an improvement in our trial numbers. They're now just shy of our goal. Repeat continues to exceed our goal. And I think some of the key things, to your point, is we're reaching the target consumer. We have a higher index with older millennials and Gen X. We continue to support the brand, learn and adjust. The launch of 1850 in Away From Home is really important for our imperative to be everywhere. And this will drive broader awareness and trial in multiple channels.

And then the launch of the single origins that you saw last week will continue to strengthen this platform. So we're all in, invested in the brands that we have, not to say that we don't always look for opportunity externally from an M&A perspective, but right now, we're focused on the brands we have and driving that growth.

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Operator [56]

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Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of Crédit Suisse.

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Robert Bain Moskow, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Research Analyst [57]

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I have a few questions. I want to try ask the inventory question a little more directly. Walmart is 30% of your sales. And they said publicly that the increased inventory in their January quarter relates to the SNAP program. It just looks like there's just such a high correlation between your shipments above Nielsen-measured consumption, especially in coffee and in consumer in relation to that statement. And we've already touched on a bunch of ways. So maybe I don't know if there's anything more to add, but I guess I want to ask: Have you done the math to try to compare and contrast the reported data compared to your ships?

I guess the second question is the special projects in the quarter, it's $18 million. You're pulling it out. That's a pretty big number. And I wanted to know, what is special about these projects? And why wouldn't we consider every year that there would be something that would require that kind of spending?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [58]

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Rob, I'll start. And this is Joe. From a coffee perspective, again, our teams are, obviously, watching inventories constantly, especially at Walmart. Honestly, the Coffee business has done well all year. So we have not seen anything out of the ordinary or dramatic that we would have called out to say that that's different. We're coming off one of the key promoted time periods of the year, the third quarter, with November, December into January being a highly promoted, high-consumption time period. So again, from our perspective, we don't see anything significantly out of the ordinary.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [59]

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Rob, before Mark answers your next question, I would just add that you're right. Our largest customers' quarters line up with ours. And so it is possible that we do see some impact to our sales based on how they treat their inventory, but this quarter was not that way.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [60]

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Rob, it's Mark Belgya. So I think you're speaking to the $18 million other project costs in the P&L reconciliation. So as we define in our non-GAAP, that is what we would call RMI, so it would be restructuring, merger and integration cost. So first of all, I'd say that we're consistent in our definition. We spend a fair amount of time making sure that it qualifies for our definition of special project cost. And specific to this year, that's predominantly integration of the Ainsworth business and then the geography decisions that we made earlier in the year and the costs associated with that. So we feel that we're consistent. Obviously, that number ebbs and flows a little bit if we have an integration or some sort of restructuring program in place. Our restructuring programs that fall into this definition are all board approved. So there are thresholds that are considered as a result of that. So we feel that the consistency of our definition and sort of the process we go through to make sure they qualify, we feel comfortable about putting it on there and calling it out. It's obviously in the reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP numbers.

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Robert Bain Moskow, Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division - Research Analyst [61]

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Mark, I didn't realize that was restructuring. Last thing, the 3% to 4% EPS growth for fiscal '20, how much better would that have been if you didn't have the headwind from this divestiture? There's this $0.25 that you've called out. But there's kind of some puts and takes. Have you kind of teased that out for people? Because you have a long-term target of 8%. Is the answer somewhere in the middle, that it would've been a core of around 6% or so?

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [62]

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Yes, that's about right, I think. A couple of percentage points around that. So yes, your 5% to 6% could be right, Rob.

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Operator [63]

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Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

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Rose V. Lauricella, Morgan Stanley, Research Division - Research Associate [64]

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This is Rose on for Pam. We just had a quick question on coffee. So if you think about the competitive dynamics that you're seeing, we've seen some headlines that a key competitor brand could be up for sale. So I'd be curious to know if you anticipate any impact from that development. And then secondarily, within your premium segment, can you give us a sense for the competitive interaction between your 1850 and Dunkin' brands?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [65]

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Yes. Again, this is Joe. We talked about it before, but we feel really good. There's very limited interaction between 1850 and Dunkin'. Dunkin' has a real core consumer. Obviously, Dunkin' corporate, the shop, we continue to support that same positioning at retail. And the 1850 position is very different from the look and feel and even the consumer that we target and we talk to. I spoke earlier about the higher index on the older millennials and the Gen X on 1850. So a little more premium, a little more kind of what we would call a coffee purist. So no real concern there.

I think we're all hearing the same things. You guys are hearing from a competitive standpoint. At this point, it would be too early to speculate on what the potential implication could be of a major brand changing hands in the category. Obviously, it's happened before. And we continue to stay focused on the things we need to do in our portfolio, and we'll be prepared for whatever happens.

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Rose V. Lauricella, Morgan Stanley, Research Division - Research Associate [66]

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Great. And if I could just follow up on 1850. Who are the customers you're seeing coming in? You've said you're overindexing to millennials and Gen X. Are you seeing new customers come into the category? Or are you seeing kind of up-trade amongst your other brands?

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Joseph Stanziano, The J. M. Smucker Company - Senior VP & GM of Coffee [67]

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Yes, mostly we're seeing 1850 really incremental to the category through expanding category consumption. So more consumption within the coffee portfolio, both for the category and our portfolio.

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Operator [68]

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Our next question comes from Rebecca Scheuneman of Morningstar.

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Rebecca Scheuneman, Morningstar Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst [69]

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So it's great to see the organic revenue growth in in the quarter. And I was just wondering if you can tell me which brands were the primary drivers of that and if those brands' strength was driven by innovation. Or was it more promotional? Just kind of the details around that.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [70]

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Rebecca, this is Mark Belgya. So as we said that in coffee, it would've been Dunkin', it would've been 1850; in Jif with Power-Ups, Uncrustables. And then -- and Dave -- obviously, Rachael Ray and just the addition there, but then Meow Mix and Kibbles 'n Bits were the 5 or 6 or 7 key brands, all with significant increases year-over-year.

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Rebecca Scheuneman, Morningstar Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst [71]

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Okay. And so I can probably assume like Meow Mix and Kibbles 'n Bits was more maybe promotional, whereas some of the other ones were maybe more innovation and maybe non-sustainable, therefore?

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [72]

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I wouldn't say -- I wouldn't necessarily say promotional. I think -- and Dave, maybe you want to elaborate. But certainly, Meow Mix, we've been actively working that brand.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [73]

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Yes. Quite honestly, when we launched the new advertising campaign, and we saw dramatic lifts across Meow Mix during that time. So we attribute the success to both Tender Centers, which is a new launch for the brand, and from marketing support.

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [74]

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It's more consumer support than any promotional support.

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Operator [75]

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Our next question comes from Laurent Grandet of Guggenheim.

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Laurent Daniel Grandet, Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division - Senior Analyst and MD of the Consumer & Retail Team [76]

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I like to drill a bit more into the Q4. As -- I mean, something I'll like to really understand is the bridge between year-to-date results and full year guidance, especially on the bottom line as you are exiting 3Q higher in earnings and EPS and you kept full year guidance the same. I understand there's $0.03 to $0.04 in terms of marketing shift between 3Q and 4Q. But still, I mean, there is a gap here. So is it coming from all the marketing spend you will have to support the different launch you presented to us during CAGNY? Or is it anything else?

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Mark R. Belgya, The J. M. Smucker Company - Vice Chair & CFO [77]

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Laurent, this is Mark Belgya. Thank you for your question. Let me just circle back to what I said earlier and try to quantify a little bit. So if you look at what The Street is thinking for Q4, the 4 things that I would suggest are new news or things that you should consider: one, as you said, is the marketing; the second is the impact of the price decline on Jif that goes effective next month; there is a higher effective tax rate than what we had submitted last quarter for both Q3 and Q4; and then lastly is just around the Uncrustables and the Longmont facility. So without being specific, I would say all 4 of those are sort of evenly spread in terms of the impact for Q4. And we'd suggest that you sort of put that in your thinking to maybe -- to adjust [and kind of stay in] The Street, what they're thinking currently.

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Operator [78]

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Our next question comes from David Driscoll of Citi.

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David Christopher Driscoll, Citigroup Inc, Research Division - MD and Senior Research Analyst [79]

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This is for Dave on pet snacks and the innovation. So I do appreciate the reiteration of the $100 million expectation for the innovation. But Dave, I wanted to clear up: Did you say that the pet snack launch is on time? Or were you trying to suggest that it's going to be pushed out a little bit? I think you specifically said the sales would show up in fiscal '20. But I thought their ship-in was all supposed to happen in the fourth quarter. Am I getting that wrong? And then I just wanted to also ask about the -- just the numbers of products that you're launching, a little bit on the philosophy of why so many products at once. On Milk-Bone, I believe, you've got the Gnaw product and you've got the Wonder product. And then you're also launching on True Treats. And you've got just a lot happening right there. And I'm just wondering why you maybe didn't spread it out a little bit over the coming 6 months or so just to keep having a flow of innovation in the pet snacks business.

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David J. Lemmon, The J. M. Smucker Company - President of Pet Food and Snacks [80]

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I'll answer your second question first, David. This is Dave Lemmon. The answer to your question is we have a huge amount of innovation coming. We're supporting every segment of the business, so through the value chain into mainstream, and it extends beyond premium and super premium. We're supporting all brands. The one key thing I would say is that Nutrish is getting a ton of support and is kind of weighing -- they're tipping the scale from that perspective. So we're giving a lot more innovation support to Nutrish moving forward in cat, wet cat, wet dog, dog treats. So it's receiving support across the brand in every segment that we operate. And we would expect it to deliver significant growth next year. As to the timing question. Just to clarify, retailers have moved their mod set, so they typically would happen in February. They've moved them out to later in March. So we would expect pipeline fill to pretty much occur in the fourth quarter. But -- and we'll be lapping that, but we would expect $100 million incremental on a full year run rate.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [81]

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David, it's Mark Smucker. Just one way to think about pet is, if you think about it, it's a very -- it's a more complex category, if you will, than some of the others that we're in and our -- like our Consumer Foods business, because we're not in baking anymore, it's not quite as complex. Coffee is coffee. And pet is just across -- there's multiple segments. And so I would say it 2 ways: one, we have to innovate in order to -- and new news is required to compete in pet, number one; and number two, pet does receive probably, in aggregate, a slightly larger, as a percent of net sales, marketing in order to support that type of activity. When you think about Wonder Bones and Gnaw Bones, I would think about those as more or less a single platform, long-lasting chews. So -- just to help put it in a little higher level and put it into some context.

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Operator [82]

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I will now turn the conference call back to management to conclude.

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Mark T. Smucker, The J. M. Smucker Company - CEO, President & Director [83]

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Well, first of all, I wanted to thank all of you for listening in today. Obviously, we had a good quarter, and we're proud of that. Just like to remind everyone that really, it is about our strategy. We are -- obviously, as we said at CAGNY, acquisitions will continue to play a role, but given where we are in executing our strategy, our leverage position, it is imperative for us to innovate, and so our long-term strategy is to grow organic top and bottom line and, ultimately, of course, increase shareholder value. So again, thank you for your time. Thank you for listening, and thank you to our employees for delivering.

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Operator [84]

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Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for participating, and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.