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Edited Transcript of TRUE.BK earnings conference call or presentation 17-Aug-20 10:59am GMT

·23 mins read

Q2 2020 True Corporation PCL Earnings Presentation Bangkok Sep 24, 2020 (Thomson StreetEvents) -- Edited Transcript of True Corporation PCL earnings conference call or presentation Monday, August 17, 2020 at 10:59:00am GMT TEXT version of Transcript ================================================================================ Corporate Participants ================================================================================ * Anat Mekpaiboonvatana True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President * Vichaow Rakphongphairoj True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director * Yupa Leewongcharoen True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO ================================================================================ Presentation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Welcome to True analyst conference for the second quarter result of 2020. On the panel today, Khun Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, Executive Vice Chairman of Executive Committee. And I myself, Yupa Leewongcharoen, Group CFO; and Khun Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, the Group President, will join us shortly. So let's start with today presentation. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good afternoon and welcome to True's analyst conference for the second quarter results of 2020. Let's start with the highlights. True Group has shown a consistent and solid growth record in both EBITDA and service revenue despite the full quarter impact of COVID-19. We are aiming to maintain this EBITDA growth trend. Our cost and productivity programs have shown positive results and are at the top of the list to grow profitability. We believe that the new normal and increasing digital and 5G adoption, we will accelerate our growth potential as core telecommunication services, and new S curve, remain key to support these behaviors. TrueMove H significantly outgrew the industry as the only operator reporting service revenue growth driven by double-digit growth in the postpaid segment. TrueOnlines’ broadband Internet performed well as broadband acquisition hit a record high. TrueVisions was affected by COVID-19, mainly on clients in hotel segment as well as no event-based revenues. The recovery on domestic tourism and targeted propositions, however, have shown positive progress in early Q3. True Digital Group continue to expand its ecosystem and partnerships in various industries and greatly enhance customer engagement to True Group. Next page. Now moving on to the financial performance. Consolidated service revenue continued to grow year-on-year to THB 26.6 billion as core service revenue increased 4% with growth in both mobile and broadband Internet. Q-on-Q was flat despite the full quarter impact of COVID-19 mainly at TrueVisions with lower revenue from hotel segment as well as an absence of events, which lowered both associated revenues and costs. Core operating expenses were well controlled, declining year-on-year and Q-on-Q due to cost controls and savings from the city lockdown. Those drove EBITDA up 17% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter to THB 9.2 billion pre-TFRS 16 and THB 13.1 billion post-TFRS 16. We expect to carry on this positive growth and productivity improvement trend while maintaining cost discipline to significantly improve bottom line performance. Next page. For the cellular segment, TrueMove H once again outperformed the industry as the only operator reporting service revenue growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter despite the COVID-19 impact on international roaming and tourism SIMs. Blended ARPU also grew along with attempt to uplift fixed-speed unlimited price plans. Postpaid saw significant growth with revenue and subscriber base increasing 11% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. TrueMove H postpaid acquisition remained highest in the industry, adding more than 400,000 in Q2. While prepaid show negative net adds pressured by COVID-19 impact, in the same trend as other players. Our 5G services are available in cities, areas of all 77 provinces. We selectively invest 5G in areas with significant demand and to add on 4G capacity. While consumer segment has seen increasing 5G devices with over 54 models supporting 2600 megahertz in Thailand and grow opportunity from data-heavy users, including in the gaming industry, use cases in vertical industries are under proof of concept. In the meantime, we have expanded our partnership with various organizations in both government and business sectors in developing 5G, cloud-based and digital solutions. Our 5G robotics currently serve partners in health care, retail, energy and government segments. We hope to see significant contribution from these offerings and solutions in the foreseeable future. For the broadband Internet segment, TrueOnline's broadband revenue and subscriber delivered stronger growth with revenue increase 5.7% year-on-year and 2.2% Q-on-Q to THB 6.7 billion thanks to rising demand of work from home. TrueOnline gained record high net adds of 133,000 in the second quarter and expanded its total subscriber base to around 4 million. We will continue to uplift customer Internet experience and enhance customer engagement with revenue upside via convergent offerings, particularly with TrueID TV. We will further utilize analytics capabilities to increase upsell and cross-sell. TrueID TV reached a new scale with approximately 1.4 million TrueID TV boxes shipped, a growth of 61% from Q1. At the same time, TrueID reached its highest video on demand at 219 million views and saw non-EPL transactions growing 23% Q-on-Q to 234,000 transactions as well as additional 30,000 subscriptions for EPL in June after the matches resumed. TrueID also launched e-commerce section in Q2, with more than 828,000 active users and 3.3 million clicks per month. Meanwhile, the privilege and loyalty platform TrueYou with targeted campaigns helps increase revenue per household via upsell and cross-sell, such as True Black Family. We also reached more customer segments with the 5 color True Cards that further respond to their preferences and enhance engagement. For the enterprise segment, True Digital Solutions continues to expand its client base and partnerships on various smart solutions. It focuses on strategic industry verticals such as agriculture, property, retail, manufacturing, logistics and supply chain as well as health care. The partnership includes government monitoring with CPF and its affiliated farms, which will develop further to include other animals; property integration systems with KE Group; smart cooler with Wefresh; AI density solution with Makro; and VHealth platform with over 24 hospitals. At the same time, True Analytics unit has expanded and provided analytics solutions to clients in several segments. This include location-based market insight, digital behavior, and hyper-targeted marketing research solutions. As for the digital transformation, we have observed an increasing trend toward online and digital transactions, which not only adds convenience to customers but also helps in terms of cost savings. We have contributed -- we have continued to migrate customers to e-bill platform, and more than 75% of our customers already [control] as of Q2. Prepaid also saw the same trend with over 75% top-up via online and service channels. Meanwhile, 20% plus of our acquisition is from online channels following the new normal. At the same time, the cloud-based integrated solutions platform, True Virtual World, has gained attraction and continue to support remote working and learning. Currently, most of our employees are working from home. We plan to have 50% also of our people work from home as the new normal. We believe that our comprehensive platform and ecosystem respond well to customers' needs. This, together with our analytics capability, will push our growth higher. This concludes today's presentation. Now let's go to Q&A session. Thank you. ================================================================================ Questions and Answers -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [1] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's start with the first question on the commercial. What were reasons for your continuous revenue growth despite the full quarter impact from COVID-19? What's the outlook for the second half? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [2] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) I would like to have Khun Vichaow to help me to translate when I talk in Thai. I got to be more comfortable. (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [3] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] I think to trans based on Khun Anat's answer, with the new normal, with the work from home, people stay home more, and it actually helps out in our case for the telecommunication services, particularly using data services. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [4] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [5] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] I think during Q2, we do have a advantage or benefit over our competitors because we're able to leverage the synergy with CP Group, for example, channels by CP All, 7-Eleven shops and Makro and so on and so forth. We are still able to debut our services and product through those new channels. And also in Q2, True introduced what we call a True Virtual World or we call it a VWorld, where we have the education, work from home and so on and so forth, in conjunction with our existing platforms that we have worked with the O2Os and using TrueID, TrueMoney and so on and so forth. Those ecosystems, which is digitally based, also helps to enhance, to help us in Q2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [6] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next question, please. Despite that broadband revenue grew nicely year-on-year and Q-on-Q with significant net add, ARPU fell year-on-year and Q-on-Q. What caused the decline in ARPU? And will this downward trend continue? May I ask Khun Anat to help? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [7] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [8] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] In terms of the overall revenue increase, obviously, those people work from home, stay home and they're using broadband more, that helps. Now in terms of ARPU decline, obviously, there is price competition as we mentioned, even from the last quarters. However, the low-tier propositions, the THB 299, THB 399 type of price range, those are targeting the new segments, the students that they have to stay home. And also according to government policies during the pandemic, the government actually promotes some low-tier entries. And we support that actually, but it actually increased the overall market size. This low tier is unlikely to impact in the bigger scale. And in our case, since we migrate the majority of our subscribers to broadband, we do have our previous cable plans still available in our cable TV, cable modem. So we can easily use those to offer for the low-tier subscribers. It actually increased the market size, do not impact our base and do not impact our investment too much. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [9] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So let's move to next question. Next question is on mobile. Your mobile blended ARPU picked up but still lower than peers. What caused this and what's your strategy to continue this trend? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [10] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [11] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] As you can see that our ARPU actually are going up, but still lagging our competitors. The improvement is due to that we utilize analytics to really analyze our subscriber base and then to target meeting the needs of our subscribers to meet their lifestyle. And what we plan to do is really based on benefits. What kind of benefits to give to our subscribers using analytics, using big data. And then we have the theme called the more you use, the more benefit you get. So the approach is pushing benefits to our subscribers. And if our subscriber realize the benefit is good for them, they're willing to pay a little bit more. And we believe this strategy will bear fruit for us in the coming quarters. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [12] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So next question on mobile again. Mobile competition slightly improved in the second quarter 2020, with ARPU uplift for fixed-speed unlimited prepaid plans and any net voice call will be charge as topping package. However, one of your competitor has lost almost 1 million subscriber per quarter for 2 consecutive quarters. Do you think that this could trigger another round of price war? Will this continue and pressure outlook? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [13] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [14] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] In Q2, obviously, you can see that the intensity of price war actually is decreasing versus we can see in Q1. This is obvious is that once one operator start to lower the price, the other 2 just simply follow. So it doesn't matter what you do. It does not help the operator to gain too much. And during COVID-19, the tourism industry is gone. And in fact, a huge number of prepaid subscribers gone. So the reduction of prepaid, a large scale of those actually come from the loss of the tourism SIMs. So consequently, I think all 3 competitors learned our lessons. So I think the price war and the potential intensity of competition probably will lessen from now on. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [15] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next is on the prepared again. True has steadily moved up the price for unlimited fixed-speed package for prepaid. What will be possible impact on True financials? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [16] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [17] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] I think it's quite obvious. When you reduce intensity of the price war, the outcome financially is better. So with the discounts gone and that sort of thing and the people still using them because they still value the services, I think the financial will get better. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [18] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Next question, True added 400,000 postpaid sub in the second quarter despite the lockdown. Where did majority of them come from, i.e., your prepaid sub, MNP, new SIM, etc? Do you expect such a strong postpaid acquisition to continue in the second half? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [19] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [20] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] With this 400,000 postpaid gain, first of all, I'd like to share that our synergy with CP Group, particularly with CP All, all the 7-Eleven stores and Makro stores that provide a tremendous outlet channel for us to gain subscribers. Meanwhile, we are pushing for online convergence. What that mean is that win the household. When we approach our broadband subscribers, we also ask the members of the household to be part of the broadband family. And in the second half, we're basically doing the same thing. We're still going to leverage our synergy with CP Group. That means 7-Eleven, Makro and so on and so forth and using the convergence approach not only on the broadband side, but also on the postpaid and particularly win the household. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [21] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next question, please. This one, we already addressed. Yes. Okay. Now moving on to financial part. What cost item other than space rental expense and content costs that were lower in the second quarter 2020? Is it possible to keep your costs as low as second quarter for the third and fourth quarter this year? Apart from the rental and content cost that was lower in the second quarter, we also saw lower selling and marketing expense as well as we continue to focus on the quality acquisitions as well as more than 75% of our new acquisition are now online, from online channels. So we will improve the efficiency of subscriber acquisition and also efficiency on marketing spending as well in the second quarter. And as to the question, is it possible to keep the costs as low as second quarter going forward? I would say that, first, I would address on the content cost. As you may saw from newspaper on the news on Thai Premier League, we will end the Thai Premier League contract this year in October, 25 October, our TPL contract will expire. So in the third and the fourth quarter, there will be overspill of some TPL costs in the third and fourth quarter. And after that when the contract expire, there will be no cost on Thai Premier League. We will replace Thai Premier League with more appeal content at a lower cost, so we anticipate the lower content cost going forward. We also renegotiate content on TrueVision as well due to the trend, the pay TV industry trends, so we will renegotiate our content. Apart from that, we will continue to focus on more efficient, quality acquisition and online marketing as well. So we anticipate to lower selling and marketing expense. And thirdly in term of the rental expense, we also anticipate certain saving in the shop rental. As long as the foot traffic not come back to normal level, we still gain certain discount on shop rental. Apart from shop rental, because of new normal and we aim that less than 50% of our staff will now work on office, the rest will work from home. This will be our new normal, meaning that we will reduce the space rental for office rental going forward. Apart from that, we also expect to improve efficiency in term of people efficiency with the new normal and work from home. We will be able to forecast more on productivity, staff productivity. We can clearly see staff productivity, so we will improve productivity of our staff. And lastly, we also anticipate some saving in regulatory cost in the second half as well. These are the area that we anticipate to gain some saving for the third and fourth quarter this year. Now move on to the next question. How much was True's second quarter operating cash flow excluding VAT refund and gain from DIF sales? How much was True's second quarter CapEx? Is it possible for True to have positive free cash flow in the second half of 2020? In term of the second quarter operating cash flow, as you may see from our financial statement and cash flow statement, operating cash flow for second quarter is quite high, about THB 21 billion to THB 22 billion positive operating cash flow. Out of that, about THB 9 billion is tax refund, so you can deduct THB 21 billion with THB 9 billion. So our operating cash flow positive is about THB 12 billion for the second quarter. And we don't have any DIF asset sale in the second quarter, and also the sale of DIF unit not including in operating cash flow. So on the net basis, THB 12 billion is positive operating cash flow for the second quarter. And how much was True second quarter CapEx? In terms of the cash CapEx, about THB 10 billion is the cash CapEx for the second quarter. So if we consider the first half, the full first half is THB 17 billion cash CapEx as you may see from our cash flow statement as you scroll in the financial statement. And the last question, is it possible for True to have positive free cash flow in the second half of this year? I would say that no, we still cannot be at the position of the free cash flow in second half because we still have to pay for the prior year's investment in CapEx due to the vendor financing terms. And so our free cash flow still be negative for the next 1 to 2 years. And let's move on to the next question on financials. Your claimable VAT came down from THB 11.2 billion in the first quarter to THB 4.5 billion in the second quarter. Did you receive VAT refund at THB 6.7 billion in this quarter? When will you expect to get the remaining VAT refund? So I already addressed this question that in the first -- sorry, in the second quarter, we get THB 9 billion VAT refund. And in the third quarter, we anticipate more tax refund. So I would guess that is about THB 4 billion to THB 5 billion tax refund that we anticipate in the third quarter. Let's move on to next question now is on commercial. What is your strategy for pay TV and OTT TV in short term and long term? What are different in terms of revenue model, cost structure and cash-generating profile between pay TV and OTT TV? Khun Anat? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [22] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [23] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] I think for the pay TV and versus OTT, it is quite obvious is that the early stage OTT TV is to complement or supplement pay TV. We do have a large premium subscriber base in terms of like Gold and Platinum packages. And with the OTT platform being complementary, you will provide on-demand services and all those online services. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [25] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Interpreted] And as you know when we acquire content, nowadays it's more common to acquire content with an omnichannel or 360 degrees omnichannel, all channel content. And with that, with the new digital TV channel, we can actually gain new revenue streams via OTT platforms in addition to the pay TV platform. Those will generate at the beginning will be quite low, but eventually it will slowly go up. That will compensate for the slight deterioration or the deterioration on the traditional pay TV business and also the advertising model. The OTT platform, together with this mobile-based app platform, the potential is huge on the advertising part. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [26] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next questions. Advanced is so confident to become a 5G leader, whereas True is the leader in 3G and 4G. How can you fight to be 5G leader? If you cannot, what will be possible impact to your customer? May I ask Vichaow to help? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [27] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I don't think that we have ceded the 5G leadership to AIS. We still think in the mobile broadband arena and particularly in the 5G era, we remain the leader. And today we actually have rolled out our 5G network to over 77 provinces already today. Obviously, when we roll out our network, we basically target dense areas to begin with and people with high potentials. As you know, today, the handset availability is still a bit low. And the 5G technology actually serve both 4G and 5G with the Thai spectrum sharing. The investment in 5G actually complements 4G as well. So we'll select to put the network into our 4G network areas, which has higher congestion and higher usage levels. So in fact, when we do roll out 5G, it actually complement on 4G as well. So with that in mind, we'll provide a seamless service to our customers and also maintain the 5G leadership. And at this moment, I don't think that we have ceded the 5G leadership to AIS yet. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [28] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Next question is on dtac. dtac plans to deploy 5G FWA on 26 gigahertz band. Will it be a threat for True's fixed broadband business? What will be different between 5G 26 gigahertz FWA and True fixed broadband services? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [29] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd like to share this. With our own 26 gigahertz frequency band that we have gained from the auction, we also study 5G fixed wireless access closely as well. And we believe that the 5G fixed wireless access or the 5G FWA does have a niche, but the niche is in the area that is not being covered by fiber. With fiber, it doesn't matter what kind of wireless access, it's definitely inferior to. Now the 5G FWA does have niche areas. The CPE, the devices that serve the house is still very high for consumer use. But for business LAN subscriptions, on the business, primarily people have to grow out their local area network, it probably is feasible. So we do not believe that it has any threat to our fixed broadband business. In fact, in those niche areas, we also plan to deploy 5G fixed wireless access for those niche areas, and we have much bigger 26 gigahertz band ourself. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [30] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next, what True has learned so far from China Mobile in operating 5G for both consumer and enterprise segments? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [31] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We learned quite a bit from China Mobile. The one area that really helpful and then we also see the benefits today is that when we roll out 5G network, once we roll the 5G network, we no longer need to invest in 4G or 3G, even though 4G and 3G, particularly 4G, probably continue to coexist with 5G for another 10, 15 years. The forecast is that 5G will probably take up 25% to 35% in terms of traffic in 5 years' time. So with that in mind, 4G at that time, 5 years from now, still being the dominant network. So when we deploy 5G, we'll consider deploying 5G to supplement 4G meanwhile to leapfrog 4G. So today, we invest 5G in the areas that 4G usage is high. So when we put it in, it relieves the traffic pressures on the 4G network and meanwhile give people the 5G capabilities. And this is even proven in China Mobile already. In the meantime, the Chinese government has mandated all their state enterprise to be a champion on each vertical industry. So the development of vertical solutions using IoT, particularly using the areas of low latency and also in the areas that requires high connectivity, those, the Chinese market is exploding in those areas. And once those areas have been doing well, the device price will drop dramatically. And then once get to a point, then we can adopt those practice to Thailand and with low entry device points, price points. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [32] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think there is no further question from the webcast at this moment. So if there is no more questions, we will end today analyst presentation. And thank you very much for your participation. We look forward to seeing you in the next quarter. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Vichaow Rakphongphairoj, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Director [33] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yupa Leewongcharoen, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Group CFO [34] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anat Mekpaiboonvatana, True Corporation Public Company Limited - Co-President [35] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (foreign language)