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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real leads November gains in Latam FX

Ambar Warrick
·2 min read

* Real set to add over 7% in Nov * Latam stocks set for second-best month on record * Brazil sovereign debt issues to remain challeging- economist By Ambar Warrick Nov 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's real was set to outperform its Latin American peers in November on improving fiscal and economic trends, while optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine and the prospect of stable U.S. politics saw most regional stocks and units gaining for the month. The currency, which rose 0.3% the day, was set to add more than 7% for November, its best month in two years. Brazilian stocks were set for their best month in 17 years with a more-than 17% gain. Brazil's public sector posted an unexpected surplus in October, the latest in a line of positive data that has underscored a fledgling recovery in Latin America's largest economy. But the real has vastly under-performed its regional peers this year, due to rising coronavirus cases and concerns over sustainable government spending due to the pandemic. "Debt financing will remain challenging amid a large number of maturities in early 2021. This outlook could change if the legislature passes measures that will reduce spending, but failure to move ahead with reforms mean that the Treasury will continue to face a difficult environment," Wilson Ferrarezi, economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note. Other regional stocks and currencies were muted, but were set for strong monthly gains after a series of positive COVID-19 vaccine updates, while Joe Biden's U.S. presidential win raised hopes of stabler trade policies in the world's largest economy. The MSCI's index of Latam stocks was set to add more than 24% in November, its second-best month on record. A surge in oil prices over the month, thanks to expectations of recovering demand after the rollout of a vaccine, saw the currencies of crude exporters Mexico and Colombia set to add about 5.2% and 7.2% for the month, respectively. Mexico's peso was also aided by the central bank pausing a rate-cutting cycle. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1214.36 -1.33 MSCI LatAm 2243.89 0.23 Brazil Bovespa 110664.86 0.08 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4123.04 0.15 Argentina MerVal - - Colombia COLCAP 1261.74 - Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.3100 0.28 Mexico peso 20.0756 -0.25 Chile peso 767.7 -0.05 Colombia peso 3596.58 0.23 Peru sol 3.602 0.00 Argentina peso 81.2900 -0.27 (interbank) (Reporting by Ambar Warrick in Bengaluru; Editing by Angus MacSwan)