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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real leads Latam currencies higher on commodities relief

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* Mexican inflation higher than expected in early July * Hungary cenbank seen raising rates further next week as CPI risks mount * Russian rouble falls past 58 vs dollar after central bank cuts rates By Anisha Sircar July 22 (Reuters) - Brazil's real led resource-rich Latin American currencies higher on Friday as stronger commodities prices provided a fillip, while Russia's rouble extended losses after the central bank cut interest rates by a sharper-than-expected 150 basis points. Mexico's peso, Brazil's real, Chile's peso and Peru's sol rose between 0.5% and 0.8% against the dollar as prices of key exports crude oil, iron ore and copper firmed after investors returned to riskier assets following a brutal sell-off. "In Brazil, which alongside Mexico has had the slowest of Latam recoveries so far, we forecast a consumer recession - we think Bolsonaro's pre-election fiscal aid pledges will create a negative fiscal impulse in early 2023, by which time real rates will be at their peak," said Marcos Casarin, chief Latam economist at Oxford Economics. Brazilian fixed-income markets are pricing in the highest risk levels in years, raising red flags among investors and government officials who see little relief in sight. On the week, regional currencies were little changed as the dollar weakened from a recent ascent as disappointing U.S. data dashed expectations of a large 100 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve next week. Mexico and Peru are the only two Latam economies likely to avoid a consumer recession in the next year as households can count on savings built up during the pandemic, and given that policy tightening has also been more gradual in the two countries than in other economies, Casarin added. Mexican consumer prices rose higher than expected in early July, official data showed, boosting expectations of further rate hikes as the central bank struggles to tame stubbornly high inflation. Latam stocks were up nearly 2% on the week so far after slumping 4.5% last week as risk appetite got a lift from pledges of stimulus in China, reports of Russian gas flowing back to Europe, some strong U.S. earnings and tempered bets of a supersized hike from the Fed. Meanwhile, Russia's rouble fell past 58 to the dollar, slipping to its weakest point on the day soon after the central bank cut interest rates for the fourth time this year, by a larger-than-expected 150 basis points to 8%. Elsewhere, Hungary's central bank is expected to raise rates by 100 basis points to 10.75% next Tuesday, with more hikes to come this year amid surging energy bills and a weak forint . Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1522 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 991.52 0.08 MSCI LatAm 1992.01 0 Brazil Bovespa 99473.48 0.44 Mexico IPC 47269.28 -0.31 Chile IPSA 5212.79 0.16 Argentina MerVal 111787.79 -0.205 Colombia COLCAP 1293.47 0.15 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.4538 0.77 Mexico peso 20.5291 0.43 Chile peso 926.3 0.35 Colombia peso 4415.25 -0.01 Peru sol 3.908 -0.12 Argentina peso 129.7700 -0.13 (interbank) Argentina peso 332 1.51 (parallel) (Reporting by Anisha Sircar in Bengaluru;;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)