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Emerging Markets Consumer ETF Poised for a Rally


The EGShares Emerging Markets Consumer (ECON) has a couple of important anecdotes attached to it this year. Not only is ECON sporting a year-to-date gain while some of its larger, diversified rivals are still sitting in the red, but the ETF has been an impressive gather of assets.

ECON has attracted almost $459.3 million in new assets during a year which five of the 10 worst ETF outflow offenders are emerging markets funds. [Cash Flowing Back to Some EM ETFs]

Since the start of September, ECON has surged 14.5%. A run like that in a small amount of time may imply the ETF is due for a breather, but at least one technical analyst sees the potential for ECON to deliver additional upside.

ECON’s daily chart shows “the sharp rally off the lows, which was followed by a few weeks of consolidation above the rising 20-day exponential moving average. On the chart below, note the bullish moving average crossover, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average. This type of moving average crossover is not a buy signal, but it does tell us that the trend is beginning to turn up,” according to Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.

Although ECON is trading lower Wednesday, the ETF is still within striking distance of its all-time high at $28.52, though a move to $29 is likely what is need to start a new up leg for ECON.

“The longer-term weekly chart of $ECON shows the sharp rally off the lows that led to a move to new 52-week highs just five weeks ago. Since there is very little resistance above, a close above $29 on the weekly chart could spark a strong rally,” added Wagner.

ECON’s 2013 bullishness has been fueled in large part by its 18.8% weight to South Africa, which includes an almost 10% allocation media conglomerate Naspers. Shares of Naspers have surged this year because the company owns a stake in Chinese Internet firm Alibaba, which could deliver one of the most anticipated IPOs in recent memory in the coming months. [China Internet ETF May not Need Alibaba]

China, Mexico, Brazil and Chile round out ECON’s top-five country weights, combining for almost 56% of the ETF’s weight.

EGShares Emerging Markets Consumer ETF