EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso rises after retail sales data, Banxico minutes

In this article:

* Latam currencies up 1.2%, stocks rise 2.4% * Mexico March retail sales rise 0.4% from Feb * Brazil's federal tax revenue beat expectations * Mexico central bank sees inflation risks biased to upside - minutes (Adds graphic, comment; updates table, prices) By Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Anisha Sircar May 26 (Reuters) - Currencies in Latin America rose on Thursday, with the Mexican peso strengthening for a third day after upbeat retail sales data even as the central bank meeting minutes highlighted persistently high inflation. The peso gained 0.3% after data showed retail sales in Mexico rose 0.4% in March from February, and 3.8% from a year earlier. "The strength on the Mexican peso is related to this sequence of positive activity data lately and really adds to the story that the Mexican economy started 2022 more positively than everyone expected, in spite of the tightening cycle by Banxico and the Fed risks that continue to accumulate," said TS Lombard economist Wilson Ferrarezi. "The problem is that the positive data will face significant downside risks in the coming months." Most of the Mexican central bank's five board members believe the balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation has worsened again and remains biased to the upside, minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting showed. "Banxico signaled in its statement that it might implement stricter measures to bring inflation back to its target levels," wrote Commerzbank strategists in a note. "Quite a few market participants seem to expect a larger rate step in June. That means a lot seems to have been priced in already, which is also reflected in the robust peso." Mexico's peso has added 3.3% this month, on track to erase all of April's losses. The Brazilian real rose 1.6% against the dollar. Brazil's federal tax revenue in April beat expectations as it reached its fifth straight record, according to data. The Colombian peso added 0.4%, rising for its third straight session, as crude prices extended their rally on signs of tight supply. A weakness in the dollar also helped lift Latam currencies after minutes on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve's May meeting contained few surprises. The Chilean peso and Peruvian sol each rose 0.9% despite weakness in copper prices on persistent worries about COVID-19 lockdowns hitting economic growth in top metals consumer China. Elsewhere, South Africa's rand reversed early losses to edge 0.1% higher. Data showed the country's producer price index rose 13.1% year on year in April, after rising 11.9% in March. The Russian rouble slumped 10% against the dollar as the central bank cut interest rates to 11% at an off-schedule policy meeting and suggested more cuts would follow as inflation risks subside. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1912 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1024.15 0.45 MSCI LatAm 2462.79 2.31 Brazil Bovespa 111997.79 1.28 Mexico IPC 52192.83 -0.02 Chile IPSA 5255.55 1.24 Argentina MerVal 93469.10 2.408 Colombia COLCAP 1507.24 1.06 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.7578 1.30 Mexico peso 19.7688 0.25 Chile peso 822.8 1.08 Colombia peso 3914.95 0.40 Peru sol 3.655 0.85 Argentina peso 119.4100 -0.25 (interbank) Argentina peso 204 1.96 (parallel) (Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; editing by Diane Craft and Richard Chang)

Advertisement