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Are Endeavour Mining plc's (TSE:EDV) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market?

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It is hard to get excited after looking at Endeavour Mining's (TSE:EDV) recent performance, when its stock has declined 3.2% over the past month. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study Endeavour Mining's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Endeavour Mining is:

5.1% = US$225m ÷ US$4.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Endeavour Mining's Earnings Growth And 5.1% ROE

On the face of it, Endeavour Mining's ROE is not much to talk about. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 16%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 17% seen by Endeavour Mining over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Endeavour Mining's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 29% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is EDV fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Endeavour Mining Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 45% (that is, a retention ratio of 55%), the fact that Endeavour Mining's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Only recently, Endeavour Mining stated paying a dividend. This likely means that the management might have concluded that its shareholders have a strong preference for dividends. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 21% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 12%, over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Endeavour Mining. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.