Enphase Energy (ENPH) Up 18% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Enphase Energy (ENPH). Shares have added about 18% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Enphase Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Enphase Energy Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Up Y/Y

Enphase Energy reported third-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 60 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents by 27.7%. The bottom line improved a solid 100% from 30 cents reported in the prior-year quarter.

Including one-time adjustments, the company posted GAAP earnings of 15 cents per share, down 46.4% from 28 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues

Enphase Energy’s third-quarter revenues of $351.5 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $344.9 million by 1.9%. The top line soared 96.9% from the year-ago quarter’s $178.5 million, driven by strong demand for its microinverter systems and increased shipments for Enphase Storage systems.

Operational Highlights

Enphase Energy’s total shipments during the reported quarter amounted to approximately 913 megawatts DC or 2,599,575 microinverters, and 65 megawatt hours of Enphase Storage systems. Adjusted gross margin contracted 20 basis points year over year to 40.8%.

Adjusted operating expenses escalated 93.9% year over year to $57.3 million. This was primarily due to higher research and development, sales and marketing, and increased hiring expenses.

Adjusted operating income during the quarter soared 96.8% to $85.9 million compared with $43.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

Enphase Energy had $885.5 million of cash and cash equivalents as of Sep 30, 2021, up from $679.4 million at the end of 2020.

Cash flow from operating activities amounted to $254.9 million at the end of third-quarter 2021 compared with $132.2 million in the year-ago period.

Q4 Guidance

For fourth-quarter 2021, Enphase Energy expects revenues of $390-$410 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $375.7 million, lower than the company’s guided range.

Adjusted operating expenses are expected between $67 million and $70 million, excluding approximately $52 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses, and acquisition-related costs and amortization.

Adjusted gross margin is likely to be 38-41%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 9.41% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Enphase Energy has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Enphase Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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