Erdogan seen 'balancing' between China and the West in third term as Turkish president

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to continue a balancing act between China and the West in his third five-year term, but observers say Beijing's treatment of the Uygur minority in Xinjiang will remain a challenge for ties.

Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Erdogan after he beat opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu - who had promised a West-leaning foreign policy - in a run-off election on Sunday.

Xi said China and Turkey had "broad common interests" in his message to Erdogan on Monday.

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"In recent years, the development of the China-Turkey strategic cooperative relationship has maintained momentum, and practical cooperation in various fields has made positive headway," Xi said in the message, according to state news agency Xinhua.

"I prize the development of China-Turkey relations and stand ready to work with Erdogan to promote mutual understanding and mutual support on issues concerning each other's core interests and major concerns so as to boost the sustained, sound and stable development of the two countries' strategic cooperative relationship," he said.

Nilgun Yildirim, an associate professor with Atilim University in Ankara, said the election result could bring some relief to policymakers in Beijing.

"Erdogan's turning the Uygur issue into a bargaining tool, at least behind the curtains, seems preferable for China in the face of the risk of Turkish opponents publicly denouncing its human rights violations both at home and abroad," Yildirim said.

Erdogan has been re-elected at a time when Turkey is grappling with runaway inflation - as high as 44 per cent in April - and a collapsing currency. These crises will be the top priority for the 69-year-old, along with his vision for the country to be a global power.

It also comes as the relationship between China and the United States continues to deteriorate over issues ranging from trade to military supremacy and human rights.

Turkey is an important US security partner and a key Nato ally, but there have been tensions with Washington in recent years, including over Ankara's purchase of Russian missile defence systems and its military operations in Syria.

Turkey also sought to buy US$20 billion worth of F-16s and nearly 80 modernisation kits from the US. However, the sale has been stalled due to objections from the US Congress over Ankara's refusal to give a green light to Nato's enlargement, its human rights record and Syria policy.

Nato declared that China was a security challenge last year for the first time. But international relations expert Ma Xiaolin said Turkey was unlikely to follow Nato's path on China.

"Erdogan's foreign policy is very stable and the core is about balancing between the major powers - regardless of how Nato as a whole is positioned against China," said Ma, from the Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou.

Kadir Temiz, an associate professor with Istanbul Medeniyet University, said the economic relationship between China and Turkey would continue to be the focus of their bilateral ties during Erdogan's second term since Turkey badly needs foreign investment.

Temiz also noted that Ankara was promoting its Middle Corridor strategy to connect with Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. Officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the trade route aims to link East Asia and Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

But he said challenges remained in bilateral ties, including over human rights in Xinjiang because of the Uygur diaspora in Turkey.

"In regional security issues such as the Syrian civil war, the Ukraine war, and the Nagorno Karabakh crisis [between Armenia and Azerbaijan], Turkey's position [in the next five years] will be much stronger than in previous years since Turkey needs stability in its closest regions as much as possible," he added.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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