Snippets: I don’t need to understand it, but here it is — The stars, planets, water and all that astro … stockmarketwhisperer (07:48) Hi about 7:45 pt we have an impt turning pt … leeway 10 minutes. (10:13) positives as day goes on so I think thats it for lows, but will add at 1858 if seen. strongest uptrend aspect is near the close today so I say we resolve UP today..perhaps strongly so. some markt astro juice coming 8:50ish.. lets see what direction it fuels.. stockmarketwhisperer (10:52) zoom! (10:53) yes.. I’m intending to hold all day to close of futures..but Im also protecting gains w/ trailer – 1875-79 target if all goes well..there’s enough gas in the tank for that to be reached. **stephen_c (11:23) SMW nice call (11:25) thanks SC..slow but sure I hope.. most energy is later in day, so patience required. Curtain call … stockmarketwhisperer (14:47) Aspect mentioned early in AM working.. (phew!) … big BIG astro over weekend..can go either way..it may come in slammed then lift few hrs in…have to see what the headlines bring.. whole week is very very large energy..volatile and expanding our range 1903 to 1838/44 poss.
Happy Mother’s Day to the ladies!!! Government Study: The National Institutes of Health has just released its results of a $200 million research study. The new study has found that women who carry a “little” extra weight live longer than the men who mention it.
Hard to Believe! 57% Of NY Home Sales In 1st Qtr Were All Cash Deals. http://cnb.cx/1m2rQH2
Today started with 173k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1866.50 – 1872.75. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1865.50 – 1884.70 before settling at 1872.30, down 1.9 handles.
Today’s pit session opened fractionally lower at 1871.30 – 1871.50 marking the early high as equities took an early nosedive led by tech. william_blount (08:40) spot LOD yesterdays 1865.5 Barry (08:43) 1864 is the Value Area Low on the 5 day RTH Volume Profile. The opening first 15 minute range was 1871.50 – 63.00, the following rally stalled out at 1867 area before retesting / holding the low. parker_schwartz (08:55:44): im not a fan of the tape today – watching for SP to start underperforming vs TF/NQ. Robert (09:05) ES double bottom here. william_blount (09:05) matches above w/ barry 1867.5, me 1868.5, Kathy 1869.5. The S&P future was rejected at 1870 area, in front of the OR and flopped to extend the daily low by 3 ticks to 1862.70 before bouncing back into the midday sideways to higher chop. william_blount (10:30) STOP RUN REVERSAL … parker_schwartz (10:38) did anyone note the location of the [SPX] 50 day on the low? Robert (11:01) battle here at the WB’s 1868.1 weekly pivot. Barry (11:03) The /ES 60m chart still looks Bearish to me… will have to get through 1870-71 with some strength to look better for me. william_blount (11:07) NOTHING HAS CHANGED — but if we tag 1866.25 at ANYTIME NOW you can look for mid p.m. high to be in motion. topnotchtrading (11:34) careful, something’s going on in the treasuries. Lower ground targets 135.11 for the 30 year. I suspect it would be the move that finally swings the indexes to higher ground. However, it has been a chop fest at best – trying to sucker me into a bad decision. stalking and ready to pounce. Just maybe that last high of 1870.00 that led to the one tic new low will be the tonic, but overall it’s still all about the settle price at 1872.30. william_blount (11:20) odds shifting strongly to lunch low in place on last test of 1866 – touch 70.25 , it is in motion. Well, by 11:30 the equities caught a bid, short covering and buy programs took the S&P through earlier resistance, opening range and up to a new intraday high of 1874.70 by 12:00 before fading … Derrick (11:35) aapl beat back near lows Chance (11:39) 1875.25 – 77.25 on deck. Raphael (11:39) squeeze is ON. Chicagostock (11:43) ES upper vol window 187525.
Kathy lunch update http://bit.ly/RwcaRl
jack_broz (12:27) floor talk re bond dip: dealers too loaded up from auctions, expected more upside and when didn’t get it they dumped them - bonds have bookends: 135.16 is HUGE down below. if that goes, bears will be in better control. 135.29 the ONLY (small) resistance. Well, after the 1874.70 HOD printed, the fade led back to where they started, 1867 area, by 1:28. Again, the [NDX] firmed up a bit, leading Roger (12:52) ES bounce here? Robert (12:53) I think so Barry (12:54) good place here for a bounce from 1869.75 – 70. Following the quiet midday sideways trade, upper 1860’s to low 1870’s the MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter showed a small $116M to the buy side before expanding to $700M going into the cash close. The cash close traded 1874.30 before settling at 1873.40, up 1.1 handles, with volume of 1.5M e-minis and the [VIX] down .51 ticks at 12.92.
Eco calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Yesterday: Retailers Report Biggest Monthly Sales Gain Since 2011 http://nws.mx/1oydfmq
Folks tend to focus only on the AAII Sentiment bull/bear spread, but I also keep an eye on neutral sentiment – think of it as a measure of the “dry powder” that will eventually go back into the market. Over the course of the last nine weeks, neutral sentiment has risen from a z-score of +0.1 (basically the mean), to +1.3 in the current week. For perspective, this week’s reading of 43% is the highest since February 2003. Implications of high neutral sentiment are bullish with above-average gains and positive expected forward performance across 1-mo, 3-mo, 6-mo and 12-mo timeframes – Oh, and dont forget … The Pitbull’s thurs/Fri low before opex – Cyrus.
Deutsche Bank: “not doing anything next month would in our view completely shatter the ECB’s credibility, and trigger a further appreciation in the euro”.