U.S. Markets close in 1 hr 48 mins
  • S&P 500

    4,395.64
    +41.45 (+0.95%)
     
  • Dow 30

    34,258.32
    +338.48 (+1.00%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    14,896.85
    +150.45 (+1.02%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,218.56
    +32.38 (+1.48%)
     
  • Gold

    1,768.40
    -9.80 (-0.55%)
     
  • Silver

    23.03
    +0.46 (+2.05%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1696
    -0.0034 (-0.2924%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.3360
    +0.0120 (+0.91%)
     
  • Vix

    20.87
    -3.49 (-14.33%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3619
    -0.0045 (-0.3282%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    109.7800
    +0.5600 (+0.5127%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    41,315.16
    -1,873.41 (-4.34%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,089.55
    +49.07 (+4.72%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,083.37
    +102.39 (+1.47%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,639.40
    -200.31 (-0.67%)
     

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Imdex Limited (ASX:IMD)

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·6 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Does the December share price for Imdex Limited (ASX:IMD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Imdex

Step by step through the calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Levered FCF (A$, Millions)

AU$11.9m

AU$26.7m

AU$33.1m

AU$34.4m

AU$35.6m

AU$36.6m

AU$37.6m

AU$38.5m

AU$39.4m

AU$40.3m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x3

Analyst x3

Analyst x2

Est @ 4.02%

Est @ 3.41%

Est @ 2.99%

Est @ 2.7%

Est @ 2.49%

Est @ 2.35%

Est @ 2.25%

Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9%

AU$11.0

AU$22.9

AU$26.3

AU$25.4

AU$24.3

AU$23.2

AU$22.1

AU$21.0

AU$19.9

AU$18.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$215m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$40m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.9%– 2.0%) = AU$700m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$700m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= AU$328m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$543m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$1.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Imdex as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.124. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Imdex, we've compiled three relevant elements you should further research:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Imdex that you need to consider before investing here.

  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for IMD's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.