U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    4,166.45
    -55.41 (-1.31%)
     
  • Dow 30

    33,290.08
    -533.37 (-1.58%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    14,030.38
    -130.97 (-0.92%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,237.75
    -49.71 (-2.17%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    71.50
    +0.46 (+0.65%)
     
  • Gold

    1,763.90
    -10.90 (-0.61%)
     
  • Silver

    25.84
    -0.01 (-0.04%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1865
    -0.0045 (-0.38%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.4500
    -0.0610 (-4.04%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3809
    -0.0115 (-0.83%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    110.1500
    -0.0810 (-0.07%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    34,104.42
    -1,721.04 (-4.80%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    888.52
    -51.42 (-5.47%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,017.47
    -135.96 (-1.90%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    28,964.08
    -54.25 (-0.19%)
     

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (ASX:RWC)

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·6 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Does the March share price for Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (ASX:RWC) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Reliance Worldwide

The method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Levered FCF (A$, Millions)

AU$167.1m

AU$177.7m

AU$183.7m

AU$188.0m

AU$215.0m

AU$225.4m

AU$234.5m

AU$242.4m

AU$249.7m

AU$256.4m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ 4.85%

Est @ 4%

Est @ 3.4%

Est @ 2.99%

Est @ 2.69%

Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%

AU$154

AU$152

AU$145

AU$137

AU$145

AU$140

AU$135

AU$129

AU$122

AU$116

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$256m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.0%) = AU$4.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$4.2b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= AU$1.9b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$3.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$4.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Reliance Worldwide as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.193. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Reliance Worldwide, we've compiled three further aspects you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does RWC have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

  2. Future Earnings: How does RWC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.