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# Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Sandvik AB (STO:SAND)

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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sandvik AB (STO:SAND) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

### The calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

#### 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF (SEK, Millions) SEK13.62k SEK14.05k SEK14.76k SEK15.29k SEK15.69k SEK16.01k SEK16.25k SEK16.44k SEK16.60k SEK16.73k Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x12 Analyst x12 Analyst x9 Est @ 3.58% Est @ 2.64% Est @ 1.98% Est @ 1.51% Est @ 1.19% Est @ 0.96% Est @ 0.8% Present Value (SEK, Millions) Discounted @ 7.14% SEK12.71k SEK12.24k SEK12.00k SEK11.60k SEK11.12k SEK10.58k SEK10.02k SEK9.47k SEK8.92k SEK8.39k

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= SEK107.05b

"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 0.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 Ã— (1 + g) Ã· (r â€“ g) = kr17b Ã— (1 + 0.4%) Ã· (7.1% â€“ 0.4%) = kr250b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = SEKkr250b Ã· ( 1 + 7.1%)10 = SEK125.61b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is SEK232.66b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of SEK185.48. Relative to the current share price of SEK171.85, the company appears about fair value at a 7.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

### Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sandvik as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.126. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

### Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldnâ€™t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Sandvik, I've put together three fundamental aspects you should further research:

1. Financial Health: Does SAND have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does SAND's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SAND? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every SE stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.