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EUR/USD Forecast: Is Losing Its Bullish Stance And About To Pierce The 1.1300 Figure

Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst at FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1294

  • Risk-aversion took over as the Fed sees a long path towards recovery.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims hit 1.54 million in the week ended June 5.
  • EUR/USD is losing its bullish stance and about to pierce the 1.1300 figure.

The EUR/USD pair has spent this Thursday consolidating below 1.1400, falling to fresh daily lows by the end of the day below 1.1300 as risk-off dominated the financial scene. Following the US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, equities entered a selling spiral that continued throughout the different sessions. The fact that the Fed will maintain rates at current lows at least through the next two years, among other things, sounded the alarm on those thinking on a soon-to-come economic recovery. The dollar benefited to a different extent against its major rivals from this risk-averse sentiment.

The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer, as there were no data releases coming from the EU.  The US, on the other hand, published the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 5, which were slightly better-than-expected, as 1.54 million Americans filed for unemployment. Continuing Jobless Claims, however, edged higher to roughly 21 million in the week ended May 29.  This Friday, the EU will unveil April Industrial Production, seen down by 20% in the month, while the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, foreseen at 75 from 72.3 in the previous month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The  EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1300 as the day comes to an end, losing its bullish stance. In the 4-hour chart, it has pierced a bullish 20 SMA, which continues advancing above also bullish larger moving averages. Technical indicators have turned south, the Momentum holding within positive levels, but the RSI already below its 50 line. The decline could extend once below the 1.1300 figure towards 1.1260, a more relevant support level.

Support levels: 1.1260 1.1225 1.1170

Resistance levels: 1.1310 1.1350 1.1390

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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