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EUR/USD Forecast: Pressuring The 61.8% Retracement Of Its October Rally

Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst at FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1002

  • US Gross Domestic Product upwardly revised to 2.1% in the third quarter.
  • Long Thanksgiving holiday in the US could see majors continue to trade range-bound.
  • EUR/USD pressuring the 61.8% retracement of its October rally.

The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.0991 this Wednesday, a fresh 2-week low, as a bunch of first-tier US data surprised to the upside. Nevertheless, there were no fireworks, as uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal, and a long weekend in the US sent trading volumes to record lows. US markets will be closed this Thursday amid the celebration of Thanksgiving, while they are due to close earlier on Friday.

The US released the second estimate of Q3 Gross Domestic Product, which surprised to the upside with 2.1%.  Durable Goods orders were up by 0.6% in October, largely surpassing the market’s expectation of -0.8%. Also, weekly unemployment claims declined to 213K in the week ended November 22, better than the 221K expected. Dollar’s strength cooled with core PCE inflation, which slid to 1.6% YoY in October and disappointing Pending Home Sales, which fell by 1.7% in October.

There US won’t release relevant data this Thursday, while the EU will publish the November Economic Sentiment Indicator, seen at 101 vs. the previous 100.8, while Germany will unveil preliminary November inflation seen down by 0.7% monthly basis and up by 1.2% when compared to a year earlier.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The  EUR/USD pair has flirted with the 61.8% retracement of its October rally before stabilizing around 1.1000, where it stands heading into the Asian opening. The risk remains skewed to the downside, according to the 4-hour chart, as the price continues developing below all of its moving averages, with the 20 and 100 SMA accelerating their declines. Technical indicators lack directional strength, the Momentum within neutral levels, and the RSI near oversold readings. Given the low volumes expected ahead of the weekend, the pair could falsely break the 1.0990 support area without actually triggering a bearish extension.

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