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EUR/USD Forecast: Under Pressure Below 1.0800, Bearish Below 1.0760

Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst at FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0782

  • The EU and Germany will publish their preliminary estimates of Q1 GDP this Friday.
  • US President Trump pledged for a stronger dollar, lifting the currency.
  • EUR/USD under pressure below 1.0800, bearish below 1.0760.

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The greenback stands victorious across the FX board for a second consecutive day. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0774 and closed the day some 10 pips above the level. The dollar surged on the back of comments from US President Trump, who stated that “it’s a great time to have a strong US Dollar.” His words coupled with plummeting equities, still suffering the echoes of Fed’s Powell latest statement, as he said that the US Central Bank has no plans to take rates below zero, and noted that policymakers are aware of the risks of a steeper economic downturn.

Market players ignore macroeconomic data. Still, Germany published its April inflation figures, with the monthly CPI rising by 0.4%, and the annual reading printing at 0.8%, both meeting the market’s expectations. The Wholesale Price Index, however, plunged, down by 3.5% when compared to a year earlier. The US has just released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 8, which resulted at 2.98 million, worse than the 2.5 million expected.

This Friday, growth will be in the spotlight as Germany will publish the preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP, seen at -2.2% from 0.0% previously, while the EU will also release its GDP for the three months to March, foreseen at -3.8%. The US will publish the preliminary estimate of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, foreseen at 68 from 71.8 previously, and April Retail Sales, seen down by 8.6% in the month. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD is trading at the lower end of its latest range, slowly grinding higher. Nevertheless, the pair remains within familiar levels and with no clear sign of an imminent breakout. The 4-hour chart shows that it is trading below all of its moving averages, while the Momentum indicator heads firmly lower within negative levels. The RSI, in the meantime, consolidates around 38, all of which maintains the risk skewed to the downside. Further declines are to be expected on a break below 1.0760, the immediate support.

Support levels:  1.0760 1.0720 1.0680.

Resistance levels: 1.0830 1.0865 1.0890

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