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EUR/USD Forecast: Upside Limited By Fibonacci Resistance At 1.1145

Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst at FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1132

  • US inflation met the market’s expectations in December, failed to impress.
  • EU-US trade tensions dented demand for the shared currency.
  • EUR/USD stuck around 1.1100, upside limited by Fibonacci resistance at 1.1145.

The market mood was not that positive this Tuesday, as market players took their eyes of the Middle-East and focused on other issues. The EUR/USD pair continued to trade within a limited range throughout the day, ending it with modest losses at around 1.1130. Trade returned to the spotlight as EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan visited his counterpart in Washington to pour some cold water on the trade relationship between the two economies after US President Trump threatened to retaliate on French tax on US tech-firms. Sentiment suffered the most as the White House announced it would include Switzerland in a currency manipulator watch-list.

The US published the latest December inflation data, which came in as the annual core CPI came as expected at 2.3% YoY, which suggest no need for the Fed to change the curse of monetary policy. This Wednesday, Germany will release Real GDP Growth, foreseen at 0.6% against the previous 1.5%. The EU, on the other hand, will publish the November Trade Balance and Industrial Production. The US will publish  December PPI although the market will focus on the US-China trade deal, and the details of phase one, expected to be out this Wednesday.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading just below the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slide, measured between 1.1238 and 1.1084 at 1.1145. The pair is neutral-to-bullish in its 4-hour chart, still stuck between directionless moving averages and with technical indicators that have turned flat within positive levels. The pair could extend its advance in the short-term once above the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, but chances of a sustained advance are still seen limited.

Support levels: 1.1090 1.1065 1.1020

Resistance levels: 1.1145 1.1180 1.1220

Image by martaposemuckel from Pixabay


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