The Euro is trading lower on Wednesday shortly before the U.S. opening. Although traders were unwilling to tip their hand ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank interest rate and monetary policy decision for several session, today’s price action indicates they are leaning toward the short side. Basically, expectations the ECB will push interest rates further into negative territory are weighing on the single-currency.
At 09:45 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1026, down 0.0016 or -0.15%.
CNBC is saying that ECB policymakers are leaning toward a revival package that includes a rate cut, a pledge to keep rates low for longer and compensation for banks over the side-effects of negative rates, five sources familiar with the discussion said last week.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a closing price reversal bottom at 1.0926 on September 3.
Although not a true minor top, a trade through 1.1085 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.
The main range is 1.1164 to 1.0926. Its retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 is acting like resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.
The new short-term range is 1.0926 to 1.1085. Its retracement zone at 1.1005 to 1.0987 is the next downside target.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1026, the direction of the EUR/USD on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a price cluster at 1.1044 to 1.1046.
A sustained move under 1.1044 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move delivers enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the 50% level at 1.1005. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 1.0987 to 1.0986.
A sustained move over 1.1046 will signal the return of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main Fibonacci level at 1.1073, followed by the high at 1.1085.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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