The Euro is edging higher on Friday, but trading inside Tuesday’s wide range for a third straight session. This indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. Fear of an escalation of tensions between the United States and China is helping to drive up safe-haven demand for the Euro. However, expectations of a rate cut and perhaps another round of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank are helping to limit gains.
AT 11:11 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1201, up 0.0022 or +0.19%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on August 1 at 1.1027.
The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.1282. This is followed by another main top at 1.1286.
A trade through 1.1027 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This is unlikely, however, but there is room for a 50% to 61.8% retracement of its current short-term range.
The main range is 1.1413 to 1.1027. Its retracement zone at 1.1220 to 1.1265 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on August 6 at 1.1250.
The first support is the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1085.
The short-term range is 1.1027 to 1.1250. Its retracement zone at 1.1139 to 1.1112 is the next potential downside target. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area in an effort to form a secondary higher bottom.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1201, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be related to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1207 and the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185. Holding inside this range will produce a choppy, two-sided trade.
A sustained move over 1.1207 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the main 50% level at 1.1220. Taking out this angle could trigger an acceleration into another downtrending Gann angle at 1.1248 and this week’s high at 1.1250.
A sustained move under 1.1185 will signal the presence of sellers. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1147. Buyers could come in on the first test of this angle, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at 1.1139 to 1.1112.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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