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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 1, 2019

James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading nearly flat against the U.S. Dollar on Friday as investors await the release of the October U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 12:30 GMT and the ISM Manufacturing PMI report at 14:00 GMT. The results of the reports could set the tone for the rest of the session.

At 11:46 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1157, up 0.0006 or +0.05%.

The NFP report is expected to show the economy added 90,000 jobs in October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in at 3.6% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have risen 0.3%.

ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.0, slightly better than the previously reported 47.8. The marginal improvement will be welcomed by those concerned about the economy headed toward recession. However, coming in under a reading of 50.0 will also mean contraction in the sector.

Weaker-than-expected data could be bullish for the Euro because it may lead to speculation the Fed may have to make another rate cut in December, something they signaled on Wednesday, they wouldn’t do.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1179 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 1.1073.

The short-term range is 1.1179 to 1.1073. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1126 is acting like support for a second session.

The intermediate range is 1.0991 to 1.1179. Its 50% level at 1.1085 is additional support.

On the upside, the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1185 is resistance and a trigger point for an upside breakout.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1157, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1157.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1157 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is Thursday’s high at 1.1176, followed closely by the main top at 1.1179.

Taking out 1.1179 will reaffirm the uptrend. This could trigger a rally into the major Fibonacci level at 1.1185. Look for selling on the first test of this level. Taking it out, however, could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1157 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1134, followed closely by the pivot at 1.1126. If this pivot fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the long-term uptrending Gann angle at 1.1109. This angle has to hold or prices could plunge into at least 1.1085 over the near-term.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire