The Euro is trading nearly flat on Friday in a lackluster trade. Volume is well below average because of the U.S. Independence Day bank holiday.
With the major banks closed, traders are probably taking some time to digest yesterday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Weekly Initial Claims reports. Additionally, the resurgence in COVID-19 infections is also a major concern for investors.
Basically, any bad economic news will make the safe-haven U.S. Dollar a more desirable asset. Any good news favors the Euro because investors will dump the dollar.
At 14:00 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1241, up 0.0001 or +0.01%.
In other news, the plunge in Euro Zone business activity caused by lockdowns imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus eased sharply last month as more businesses reopened and people ventured out, a survey showed on Friday.
Additionally, the risk of a deeper economic Euro Zone recession than predicted in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) baseline scenario has diminished, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said on Friday.
“Recent data solidifies the confidence in our baseline scenario with a more favorable balance of risks,” the Dutch central bank president said in a speech at a webinar hosted by Bloomberg.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1349 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1185 will reaffirm the downtrend.
The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum.
The short-term range is 1.1422 to 1.1168. Its 50% level at 1.1295 is resistance. This level is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.
The major retracement zone support is 1.1167 to 1.1066.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
If the U.S. and Euro Zone economic data continues to impress then look for a strong rally to develop on a breakout over 1.1295.
If the data starts to come in weak or if a second-wave of COVID-19 infections starts to affect the economy recovery then look for investors to move money into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. This would put pressure on the EUR/USD.
Crossing to the weak side of the Fibonacci level at 1.1167 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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