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EUR/USD Price Forecast: ECB Uncertainty Leaves Parity in Play

·2 min read

For the EUR, it is a quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Italian retail sales figures for May are out early in the European session.

With little else for the markets to consider, weak consumption figures could further test the EUR.

Following Germany’s trade data on Friday and a string of disappointing stats for the Eurozone, the question is whether the ECB can bring inflation under control without further damage to the Eurozone economy.

Question marks over how far the ECB can go and concerns over the economic outlook remain EUR/USD headwinds.

Away from the economic calendar, however, market risk sentiment will be the key driver on the day.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.50% to $1.01350.

A choppy morning saw the EUR rise to an early high of $1.01834 before falling to a low of $1.01317.

The EUR/USD left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.

EURUSD 110722 Daily Chart
EURUSD 110722 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD will need to move through the $1.0150 pivot to test the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0228 and resistance at $1.0250.

Market risk sentiment will need to improve to support a breakout from the Friday high of $1.01912 and a return to $1.020.

An extended rally would bring the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0269 and $1.03 into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0389.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0108 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, the EUR should avoid sub-$1.00. The second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0030 would likely limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.9910.

EURUSD 110722 Hourly Chart
EURUSD 110722 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, the EUR sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.02920.

The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, EUR/USD price negative.

While a move through R1 would support a return to $1.03, the EUR/USD pair would likely fall short of the 50-day EMA.

EURUSD 110722 4 Hourly Chart
EURUSD 110722 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

There are no US stats for the markets to consider, leaving the EUR/USD pair in the hands of market risk sentiment.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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