The Euro has gone back and forth during the week, but obviously this is a bit of a different week, as Thanksgiving will have socked a lot of the volatility and momentum right out of the market. All things being equal though, we are still in a downtrend and that is probably the most important thing to pay attention to. With that, the 50 week EMA is still hanging about the downtrend line from the channel, and therefore rallies at this point are to be looked at with suspicion, as the Euro is simply falling in a slow and controlled descent.
EUR USD Forecast Video 02.12.19
Economic numbers out of the core of Europe continue to be mixed at best, and with the ECB transitioning leadership, it looks as if we are on track to continue seeing loose monetary policy. With that being the case, it’s very likely that the market will continue to grind lower but will occasionally see a bounce that throws things into a bit of disarray. It’s not until we break above the 1.12 level that I would consider a rally worth paying attention to. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noise, but overall, I still believe in the downside and therefore will be looking for “value” in the US dollar. Looking for signs of exhaustion will be the best way to trade this market, or perhaps some type of breakdown. Overall, this is a market that will probably go looking towards the gap underneath at the 1.0750 level.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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