The euro and related exchange traded fund have quickly depreciated as the European Central Bank enacted an aggressive quantitative easing program, and things can get worse for the Eurozone currency.
The CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust (FXE) has dipped 10.4% year-to-date as the euro currency fell to a 12-year low against the U.S. dollar. The euro was hovering around $1.0711 Tuesday.
Meanwhile, inverse euro-currency ETF options have surged to fresh all-time highs. Year-to-date, the ProShares Short Euro (EUFX) , which provides 100% of the inverse or opposite return on the U.S. dollar price of the euro, has increased 11.2%. Additionally, the ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) , which provides 200% of the inverse return of the U.S. dollar price of the euro, and the Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (DRR) , which also provides a -200% exposure to the euro, have jumped 23.0% and 24.5%, respectively, so far this year. [Inverse ETFs to Hedge Against Further Euro Weakness]
The euro currency is depreciating as the ECB initiated a 1 trillion euro quantitative easing program, which was announced in January, reports Tommy Stubbington for the Wall Street Journal.
With the QE still in its early stages, the euro currency could have more room to fall.
“Even if you think the euro is fundamentally undervalued, now isn’t the time to catch a falling knife. There is a lot of momentum to this move,” Javier Corominas, head of economic research and a portfolio manager at Record Currency Management, said in the WSJ article.
On the other side of the currency trade, the U.S. dollar is also only just beginning its uptrend, especially as the U.S. Federal Reserve is in the initial stages of hiking interest rates , writes Jeremy L. Hill, managing partner of Old Blackheath Companies.
Monetary policies can provide short-term growth spurts, but they can also have long-lasting effects.
“Historically, these trends last eight years or longer and we’re only in the second or third year of dollar strength,” Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management head of ETF Strategy Dodd Kittsley told ETF Trends. [Kittsley Talks Currency Hedged ETF Lessons]
Further pressuring the euro and strengthening the U.S. dollar, the U.S. economy is looking much healthier than other developed markets – the USD quickly appreciated after the last favorable job report. Additionally, further political risk in the Eurozone could also pull on the euro as well.
CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust
For more information on the euro currency, visit our euro category.
Max Chen contributed to this article.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.