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European Equities: Economic Data and Trade Talk to Drive the Majors

Bob Mason

Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 12th November

  • German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov)
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)

Wednesday, 13th November

  • German CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

Thursday, 14th November

  • German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1st Estimate
  • German GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1st Estimate
  • French CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final
  • French HICP (MoM) (Oct) Final
  • Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final
  • Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct) Final
  • Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2nd Estimate
  • Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2nd Estimate

Friday, 15th November

  • Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final
  • Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final
  • Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (Sep)

The Majors

It was a mixed start to the week for the European majors. The DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.23% and 0.02% respectively, while the CAC40 eked out a 0.07% gain.

With no material economic data from the Eurozone to provide direction, geopolitics was front and center once more.

Optimism over a phase 1 trade agreement deteriorated at the start of the week. The markets responded to news of Trump saying that he had not agreed to roll back tariffs.

Last Thursday, the majors had found support on news of Beijing and Washington agreeing to remove some tariffs…

While trade angst was the main cause of the mixed session, events in HK at the start of the week didn’t help. Shootings and more left the Hang Seng down by 2.62%, its largest single-day slide since the summer.

The Stats

It was a quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Monday. There were no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction on the day.

With no material stats from the U.S to influence, geopolitics provided direction on the day.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish start to the week for the auto sector, as the markets responded to the latest chatter on trade. Volkswagen led the way, falling by 0.36%, with Continental down by 0.30%. BMW and Daimler saw more modest losses of 0.04% and 0.15% respectively.

It was no better for the banks, with Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank falling by 0.72% and 0.51% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a mixed start to the week for bank stocks. Soc Gen and Credit Agricole rose by 1.30% and by 1.10% respectively, while BNP Paribas fell by 0.37%.

It was bearish for the autos, however, with Peugeot and Renault falling by 0.46% and by 1.24% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a positive start to the week for the VIX, which rose by 5.14% on Monday. Reversing a 5.18% fall from Friday, the VIX ended the day at 12.7.

The upside came as the markets responded to news of the U.S President denying any agreement to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods.

On the day, the S&P500 fell by 0.2%, recording its 2nd day in the red in the last 8 trading sessions.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. November’s ZEW Economic sentiment and current conditions figures are due out of Germany and the Eurozone.

We can expect the DAX30 to be particularly sensitive to the numbers. While Germany’s economic sentiment figure tends to have the greatest influence, expect the Eurozone’s economic sentiment figure to also provide direction.

On the geopolitical risk front, we can expect any chatter on trade to provide direction throughout the day.

U.S President Trump is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York, which will likely garner plenty of attention.

Corporate earnings will also be in focus on the day. Infineon Technology’s earnings results are due out later this morning.

In the futures market, at the time of writing, the DAX30 was down by 5 points, with the Dow down by 16 points.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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