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European Equities: French Industrial Production Figures and ECB President Lagarde in Focus

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Bob Mason
·3 min read
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Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 10th February

German CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

French Industrial Production m/m (Dec)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Friday, 12th February

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) Final

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Tuesday. The CAC40 rose by 0.10%, while the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.34% and by 0.09% respectively.

Better than expected trade data from Germany failed to support the DAX30, as the markets took a breather from the February rebound.

For the DAX30, which is up by 4.31% for the current month, it was only the 2nd day in the red from 7.

Hopes of a speedy economic recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary policy measures and vaccination roll-outs continued to deliver support, however.

The Stats

It was another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Key stats included German trade data and Italian industrial production figures for December.

In December, Germany’s trade surplus widened from €16.0bn to €16.1bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to €15.9bn.

According to Destatis,

  • Exports rose by 0.1% on the previous month to €100.7bn.

  • On the same month a year earlier, exports were up by 2.7%.

  • Imports fell by 0.1% on the previous month to €85.9bn

  • On the same month a year earlier, imports were up by 3.5%.

In Italy, industrial production fell by 0.2% following a 1.4% slide in November. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase.

From the U.S

JOLT’s job openings were in focus late in the European session.

In December, JOLTs job openings increased from a revised 6.572m to 6.646m, coming in ahead of a forecasted 6.500m.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental and Daimler fell by 0.88% and by 1.04% respectively. BMW and Volkswagen saw modest losses of 0.20% and 0.35% respectively.

It was another mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.11%, while Commerzbank slid by 2.29%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole fell by 0.45% and by 0.83% respectively. Soc Gen ended the day up by 0.69%.

It was a bearish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day with losses of 0.91% and 1.66% respectively.

Air France-KLM slid by 2.65%, with Airbus SE falling by 1.49%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Tuesday. Following on from a 1.77% gain on Monday, the VIX rose by 1.84% to end the day at 21.63.

The Dow and the S&P500 fell by 0.03% and by 0.11% respectively, while the NASDAQ rose by 0.14%.

JOLTs job openings for December failed to support, as the markets hit pause following the latest string of gains.

For the S&P500, Tuesday’s modest decline ended a run of 6 consecutive days in the green.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Key stats include finalized German inflation and French industrial production figures.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak later today. Expect any forward guidance to influence the majors.

From the U.S, January inflation figures and chatter from Capitol Hill will be in focus later in the day.

Ahead of the European open, inflation figures from China will also draw attention.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 29 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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The event may last shorter than the regular two weeks because of the pandemicThe proposed agenda includes an examination of the economy and the 14th five-year plan, Xinhua reportedThe Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body whose annual meeting is held in conjunction with the NPC, will gather on March 4, according to XinhuaThe meetings probably won’t set a GDP growth target but will emphasize “high-quality” growth considering Covid-19 is still widespread outside China, Iris Pang, an economist at ING in Hong Kong, wrote in a noteThe yuan is one of the best-performing currency in Asia this yearU.S.-Saudi relations will be monitored after an American intelligence report implicated Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in approving the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, an act President Joe Biden called “outrageous”Nigeria’s central bank governor suggested the currency was devaluedGovernor Godwin Emefiele said the official exchange rate now stands at 410 per dollar. That’s 7.6% weaker than the rate of 379 published on the central bank’s websiteBrazilian lawmakers are slated to pick up the debate around emergency cash handoutsThe real is the worst-performing currency in Latin America this year Bank Negara Malaysia:Malaysia’s central bank is forecast to keep its overnight policy rate at a record low 1.75% on Thursday. Traders are reducing bets on further easing amid a surge in global bond yields“Stringent social containment measures have dented Malaysia’s growth recovery trajectory,” Kanika Bhatnagar, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Bangalore, wrote in a client note. “Monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the central bank continuing with its purchases of government bonds and carrying out reverse repo operations”The ringgit has weakened 0.9% this year amid an extended lockdown and a delay in vaccine rollouts. At the same time, rising oil prices are starting to improve the outlook for the currency for emerging Asia’s only exporter of the commodityKey DataChina’s manufacturing activity dropped further in February as the Lunar New Year holidays disrupted production, while travel restrictions to contain virus outbreaks cut spending on servicesPMI data released Monday showed manufacturing expanded in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam last month, while it continued to shrink in Malaysia and Thailand. South Korea and Taiwan will report similar data TuesdaySouth Korea said Monday that exports rose for a fourth month in Febuary amid the global recovery. January industrial-production numbers are due Tuesday, and final fourth-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for ThursdayThe won has lost 3.3% this yearIndonesia said on Monday that consumer prices rose 1.38% year-on-year in February. South Korea will publish CPI numbers Thursday, and the Philippines and Thailand on FridayPhilippine real yields turned negative in January after CPI rose to the highest level in two yearsSouth Korea will post foreign reserves data Thursday, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines on FridayTurkey’s economy outperformed all peers except China in the final quarter of last year, driven by lower interest rates and a credit binge that boosted domestic consumption while destabilizing the currencyGross domestic product expanded 5.9% from a year earlier, faster than all G-20 nations except China’s 6.5%, data showed on Monday. The median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey was for 6.9% expansion.Read more: Policy Jitters Compound Lira’s Worst Week Since 2018 CrisisRussia’s purchasing managers’ index picked up in February to 51.5, the highest reading since April 2019A reading of Brazil’s GDP on Wednesday is expected to show strong levels of growth in the final three months of 2020 as Latin America’s biggest economy recovered from the shock of Covid-19Traders will also monitor January industrial production figures, to be released on Friday, for signs of a comebackIn Mexico, the central bank will probably raise its GDP growth forecasts for this year and next when it publishes its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg Economics​​​​​Colombia’s February consumer price inflation figures are expected to show a contraction from a year earlier amid weak domestic demandThe results may have an impact on investor expectations for the central bank to remain accommodativeChile’s January economic activity fell 3.1% year-on-year, more than economists expectedA reading of confidence will also be watched for signs of a comeback as vaccines are rolled out(Adds information on ETF inflows in fifth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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