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European Equities: Futures Point North ahead of a Data Deluge from the U.S

Bob Mason
·4 min read

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 23rd November

ECB Financial Stability Review

France Jobseekers Total

Thursday, 24th November

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting  

Friday, 25th November

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)

French CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim

French GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Nov) Prelim

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Final

The Majors

It was a bullish day for the European majors on Tuesday. The DAX30 and the CAC40 rose by 1.26% and by 1.21% respectively, with the EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.91%.

Positive updates on the COVID-19 vaccine front continued to support the majors on the day. News of Trump agreeing to the transition and of previous FED Chair Yellen joining the new administration also delivered a boost.

On the economic data front, a fall in business sentiment failed to weigh on the DAX30 and broader risk sentiment. Progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine muted any disappointing numbers on the day.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Finalized 3rd quarter GDP and November IFO Business Climate Index figures for Germany were in focus.

In the 3rd quarter, the German economy expanded by 8.5%, partially reversing a 9.7% contraction from the 2nd quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 3.9%. In the 2nd quarter, the economy had contracted by 11.3%.

Both were revised upwards from 1st estimate numbers.

On the business sentiment front, the IFO Business Climate Index fell from 92.5 to 90.7 Economists had forecast a decline to 90.1. Weighing on sentiment was a fall in business expectations, which slid from 94.7 to 91.5. The current assessment indicator saw a marginal decline from 90.4 to 90.0 for November.

From the U.S

Consumer confidence figures were in focus. In November, the CB Consumer Confidence Index fell from 101.4 to 96.1. Economists had forecast a decline to 98.0. COVID-19 vaccine news is likely to give consumers a boost, however, which muted the impact of the softer than expected number.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a particularly bullish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental rallied by 5.60% to lead the way, with Volkswagen rising by 3.98%. BMW and Daimler weren’t far behind with gains of 3.31% and 3.19% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 2.98%, with Commerzbank rallying by 4.35%.

From the CAC, it was a particularly bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rallied by 5.41% and by 5.48% respectively. Soc Gen saw a more modest 4.14% gain on the day.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot rose by 2.59%, with Renault rallying by 6.87%.

Vaccine news continued to support airline stocks, with Air France-KLM surging by 11.07%, while Airbus SE saw a more modest 3.73% gain.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Tuesday. Following a 4.39% decline on Monday, the VIX fell by 4.50% to end the day at $21.64.

COVID-19 vaccine news and news of Joe Biden being given the green light for an orderly transition weighed on the VIX.

On Tuesday, the Dow rose by 1.54%, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 seeing gains of 1.62% and 1.31% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. French jobseeker totals are due out later today.

With the markets expecting labor market conditions to deteriorate, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the majors.

Of greater interest will be the ECB Financial Stability Review that is due out ahead of the French data.

The ECB is expected to make a move next month. With November PMIs disappointing, the Review could give some idea of what to expect from the ECB.

From the U.S, it is a particularly busy day on the economic calendar ahead of the market close on Thursday.

Key stats include the weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, 2nd estimate GDP, and personal spending figures.

Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news updates, any stimulus talk from Capitol Hill, and Brexit to also influence.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 138 points, with the DAX up by 76.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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