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EV Trucks: Will They Fly?

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·5 min read
In this article:
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  • (1:00) - How Disruptive are Electric Vehicles?

  • (8:45) - Can the Ford F-150 Lighting Outsell the Tesla Cybertruck?

  • (20:00) - Who Will Be The Top EV Truck Competitors?

  • (31:10) - Ford’s Advantage In Europe and CaaS

  • (39:50) - Dave Bartosiak on the Slow-Motion EV Revolution

  • Podcast@Zacks.com Mind Over Money Archive

 

Welcome back to Mind Over Money. I'm Kevin Cook, your field guide and story teller for the fascinating arena of behavioral economics.

I recently did a presentation for Zacks Ultimate members where I explained why I think Elon Musk will go down in history as (almost) single-handedly disrupting auto and energy markets. I say "almost" because he, of course, did not do this without an army of talented auto and battery engineers and software developers.

And that is another credit to the maverick that NASA calls a partner in some of the top tiers of technology -- Musk knows how to recruit and unleash the world's top engineering talent.

My conviction that he should get lots of credit is backed-up by the large investors who have owned Tesla TSLA stock for several years and continue to own it with high conviction despite it more than quadrupling in value in the past year. In fact, they only sell TSLA shares when their positions, stuffed with outsized profits, become too large a concentration in their funds.

Investors like Ron Baron, who believes traditional automakers are trapped in the ICE (internal combustion engine) world, Baillie Gifford, the $250 billion Scottish long-term asset manager, and Cathie Wood's ARK Invest which recently bumped their 5-year price target on TSLA shares from $1,400 to $3,000.

Tesla is the top holding in both the flagship ARK Innovation ETF and the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF ARKQ. In the podcast, I explain why Wood's long-term price target is so extreme -- and it has nothing to do with sleek, ludicrously fast sports cars.

Remember The Thing?

To be sure, the crazy genius of Elon definitely leaves investors scratching their heads sometimes. Like when he makes erratic tweets about his cars, his factories, or his bitcoin holdings. Don't get me started on the phony-crypto Dogecoin soap opera.

And for my taste, I thought the Cybertruck was a strange distraction from his core business. How big could the market be for that thing? Indeed, it reminded me of the Volkswagen Thing from the 1970s.

So if you hear me slip and call it the Cyberthingy, you'll know what I mean.

And there's a new cyber threat in town. Yes, I'm talking about the Ford F F-150 Lightning.

I did my Cook's Kitchen video and article last week on this new beauty and the piece was titled...

The F-150 Lightning Will Crush the Tesla Cybertruck

Why would I say something so bold?

For starters, I don't know that much about the features and specs of the Cyberthingy. But I know enough about those of the F-150 Lightning to imagine trade contractors and mobile entrepreneurs eagerly adopting its sleek power tools and turning heads across America.

To break down those attributes and where they might succeed or flop in an EV truck market with growing competition, I invited my favorite car guy on the program, Dave Bartosiak. You can find him @Bartosiastics on Twitter.

Dave runs the Blockchain Innovators portfolio at Zacks where he gets to have a blast picking dynamic companies that will benefit from emerging disruption in digital finance, cryptocurrencies, and cloud security. He's had his followers in Advanced Micro Devices AMD since July of 2018 where they are enjoying over 450% open gains.

In the podcast, Dave and I talk about new EV truck entrants like the Amazon-sponsored Rivian and the General Motors GM Hummer EV, which he recently put a deposit on.

Dave also explains why the lift-off in sales for all of these new EV trucks is going to take some time, beyond the semiconductor shortage. Part of his thesis revolves around what the EU is doing with regulations and incentives for battery powered mobility.

The Ford Edsel of Innovation?

I also get to elaborate on my thesis about how the F-150 Lightning "crushes" the Cybertruck. And I was even more encouraged after listening to Dave because Ford CEO Jim Farley has extensive experience selling cars in Europe, as well as dealing with regulators.

When asked to define "crushes" I throw out some conservative numbers like 5 times the sales and 3 times the profits. My guesstimates could be complete flops, especially if the Cyberthingy is not one, but since I believe this new vehicle class from Ford is a game-winner, I expect it will surprise a lot of car market experts too.

And the Cybertruck might go down in history for some lesser things than its vain creator. Remember the late 1950s vanity project of Henry Ford's son Edsel?

Get more details in the podcast and in my recent video and article The F-150 Lightning Will Crush the Tesla Cybertruck.

Disclosure: I own shares of AMD and Ford for the Zacks TAZR Trader portfolio.
 


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