Even after rising 24% this past week, FedNat Holding (NASDAQ:FNHC) shareholders are still down 87% over the past three years
It's nice to see the FedNat Holding Company (NASDAQ:FNHC) share price up 24% in a week. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 88% in the last three years. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for FedNat Holding
FedNat Holding wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over the last three years, FedNat Holding's revenue dropped 1.7% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 23% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Take a more thorough look at FedNat Holding's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
Investors in FedNat Holding had a tough year, with a total loss of 68%, against a market gain of about 35%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - FedNat Holding has 4 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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