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The ExOne Company (NASDAQ:XONE) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. The results overall were credible, with revenues of US$13m beating expectations by 14%. Statutory losses were US$0.22 per share, 19% below what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, ExOne's three analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be US$56.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.94 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$59.0m and US$0.69 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The average price target lifted 13% to US$8.83, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ExOne at US$9.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ExOne is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 1.7% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 9.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - ExOne is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ExOne. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ExOne going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - ExOne has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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