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What To Expect From July Unemployment Data: Economists Forecast Slowing Recovery

Robert Schultz

National unemployment numbers for July are set to be released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and experts are expecting an increase in the unemployment rate.  

Early July Predictions: According to a labor report for July released by Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ: ADP), private sector employment saw an increase of 167,000 jobs.

Small and large businesses are seeing an increase in employment count, while midsize businesses are seeing a noticeable decrease in employment numbers.

“The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said in the report. 

Professional/business services, education and health services and trade/transportation/utilities have seen the largest increase in employment, according to ADP. The financial industry experienced the largest employment decrease, the report said. 

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said he expects the national unemployment rate increase to 11.5% for the month of July. 

Fed Data Points To Slowdown: On Tuesday, the St. Louis Federal Reserve released data on economic conditions and employment.

Since the week of June 12, the recovery in employment has slowed down and slightly reverted, according to the Fed district. 

Areas of the economy that have been touted as rebounding are starting to slow as well: construction employment numbers saw a decrease in employment. Construction was one of the first industries to reopen following widespread stay-at-home orders. 

Why This Week Is Important: All eyes will be on Washington, D.C. this week as negotiations for a second stimulus bill wrap up. With the $600 unemployment benefit now expired, we should find out in the coming weeks if it will be replaced — and if the government Payment Protection Plan is extended.

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