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Factors Likely to Decide Buckle's (BKE) Fate in Q4 Earnings

Zacks Equity Research

The Buckle, Inc. BKE is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2018 (ended on Feb 2, 2019) results on Mar 15, before market open. In the trailing four quarters, the company’s bottom line has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 7%. Let’s see what awaits this quarterly release.

How are Estimates Faring?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 80 cents, reflecting a decline of 8.1% from 87 cents per share registered in the year-ago quarter. Notably, the consensus mark has remained stable over the past 30 days. For revenues, the consensus mark stands at $264.4 million, mirroring a 6% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Buckle, Inc. (The) Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Buckle, Inc. (The) Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Buckle, Inc. (The) Quote

Let’s delve deeper and find out the factors impacting the results.

Factors to Consider

Buckle has been grappling with dismal comparable store net sales (comps) for quite some time now. Certainly, this will impact its top-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Recently, the company came out with its fourth-quarter sales number, wherein net sales and comps decreased 6% and 0.6%, respectively.

We note that comps have declined 0.6% and 0.2% in November and December 2018, respectively, and again 2.2% in January 2019. Net sales fell 6.7% in December 2018 and 17.9% in January 2019.  However, the metric improved 3.9% in November 2018.

Disappointing performance in women’s merchandise sales has been a concern. In the third quarter of fiscal 2018, women’s merchandise sales declined 8.5%, while men’s merchandise sales fell 2%.

Moreover, we note that any deleverage in occupancy, and buying and distribution costs may have a direct bearing on the company’s gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter.

Nevertheless, Buckle’s focus on managing inventory, private label brands and buy more save more program bode well. Also, the company’s online sales have been relatively strong. In the third quarter, the company posted an 8.8% increase in online sales. Cumulatively, these factors might have played a decisive role in the company’s performance.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Buckle is likely to beat earnings estimates in fourth-quarter fiscal 2018. A stock needs to have — a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — as well as a positive Earnings ESP — for this to happen. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Although Buckle has a Zacks Rank #2, an Earnings ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat.

Darden Restaurants DRI has an Earnings ESP of +1.46% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PVH Corp. PVH has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #2.

G-III Apparel GIII has an Earnings ESP of +0.92% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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