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Factors Setting the Tone for Square's (SQ) Earnings in Q1

·4 min read

Square, Inc. SQ is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 6.

For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.37 billion, suggesting growth of 143.7% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter bottom line stands at earnings of 16 cents per share, whereas it reported a loss of 2 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing fourquarters and missed the same once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 105.9%, on average.

Square, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Square, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Square, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Square, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Square, Inc. Quote

Strengthening Seller Base

Square’s comprehensive commerce ecosystem, which helps it in attracting sellers and retaining the existing ones, is likely to have strengthened the seller base in the quarter under review.

Moreover, integrations among the company’s product lines, which deliver enhanced user experience, are likely to have driven seller base growth in the first quarter.

Additionally, Square’s strengthening omni-channel offerings, which aid it in serving diverse seller verticals, are expected to have aided momentum across sellers in the to-be-reported quarter.

All the factors are expected to have accelerated the company’s gross payment volume (GPV) and, consequently, the top line in the quarter under discussion.

Upswing in GPV

GPV, which is the key growth metric for Square, is likely to have benefited from strengthening relationships with sellers in the first quarter.

Apart from seller base strength, Square’s robust product portfolio, strengthening mobile initiatives and growing proliferation of card-not-present transactions are expected to have driven growth in its GPV in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company defines larger sellers as those who make more than $125,000 of annualized GPV and midmarket sellers as those who make more than $500,000 of annualized revenues.

In fourth-quarter 2020, GPV was$32.02 billion, up 12% from the year-ago quarter. The trend is expected to have continued in the first quarter of 2021.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPV for the first quarter is currently projected at $29.5 billion, suggesting growth of 14.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Risks to Consider

However, uncertainties related to the pandemic are expected tohave affected the first-quarter performance of the company.

Further, higher investments and increasing product development expenses are anticipated to have affected Square’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

Additionally, the impacts of intensifying competition and foreign exchange fluctuations are anticipated to get reflected in the first-quarter results.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Square this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Square has an Earnings ESP of -4.98% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat estimates this earnings season.

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. VSH has an Earnings ESP of +5.22% and a Zacks Rank #2, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rankstocks here.

CDW Corporation CDW has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and a Zacks Rank of 2 currently.

Synaptics Incorporated SYNA has an Earnings ESP of +1.60% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

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