Factors Setting the Tone for Vail Resorts' (MTN) Q2 Earnings
Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Mar 11, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%
How are Estimates Placed?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.04, which indicates a decline of 59.8% from $5.07 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is at nearly $608.9 million that indicates a decline of 34.2% from the prior-year quarter’s levels.
Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote
Factors at Play
Vail Resorts’ fiscal second-quarter 2021 performance is likely to reflect dismal performance by the company’s North American ski season and dismal resort revenues. On January 15, 2021, the company provided a business update, whereby its 2020/21 North American ski season (through Jan 3, 2021) fell significantly.
Notably, season-to-date (through Jan 3, 2021) total skier visits fell 16.6% compared with the prior year season-to-date period (Jan 5, 2020). Lift ticket revenues fell 20.9% year over year. Meanwhile, ski school revenues plunged 52.6% year over year and dining revenues plunged 66.2% compared with the prior-year period’s levels. Retail revenues (or rental revenue) for North American resort and ski area store locations fell 39.2% year over year. Notably, COVID-19 related capacity limitations along with dismal snowfall levels at Colorado, Utah and Tahoe resorts are likely to have impacted the company’s performance in the to-be reported quarter.
Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter resort revenues is pegged at $598 million, indicating a decline of 35.3% year over year.
However, increased focus on offerings such as Epic Pass, Epic Local Pass, Epic Day Pass and Epic Coverage products along with renewal of passes owing to credit deadlines are likely to have driven the fiscal second-quarter top line.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of -18.50%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Vail Resorts, which shares space with Camping World Holdings, Inc. CWH, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. RICK and AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC in the Leisure and Recreation Services industry, currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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