U.S. Markets open in 1 hr 31 mins

Fannie Mae Securities Are Outperforming Treasuries

Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

All Eyes on the Fed: The FOMC Meeting and Real Estate Releases

(Continued from Prior Part)

Fannie Mae and the to-be-announced market

When the Federal Reserve talks about buying MBS (mortgage-backed securities), it’s referring to the TBA (to-be-announced) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product they can trade. TBAs settle once a month.

Fannie Mae loans go into Fannie Mae securities. TBAs are broken out by coupon rate and settlement date. In the above chart, we see Fannie Mae’s 3.5% coupon for June delivery.

TBAs rally further than Treasuries

Fannie Mae TBAs started the week at 102 29/32 and picked up 9.5 ticks to go out at 103 6/32. The ten-year bond yield, which you can trade through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), decreased by 2 basis points.

Implications for mortgage REITs 

Mortgage REITs and ETFs—including Annaly Capital (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA)—are the biggest non-central-bank holders of TBAs. They use the TBA market as a vehicle to quickly increase and decrease exposure to MBS. TBAs are highly liquid and much easier to trade than a portfolio of older existing MBS. Non-agency REITs such as Two Harbors (TWO) are less likely to trade TBAs. Investors interested in trading the mortgage REIT sector through an ETF should look at the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM).

In general, you can consider mortgage REITs among the biggest lenders in the mortgage market. When TBAs rally, mortgage REITs see capital gains. These gains increase TBA returns, especially when added to their interest income.

You should take care, however, because REITs use leverage and volatility in interest rates to work against them. American Capital Agency reported recently. Its book value per share only increased by a small amount despite a huge rally in bonds in the fourth quarter. Similarly, we saw Annaly Capital Management make few adjustments to its investment portfolio.

Continue to Next Part

Browse this series on Market Realist:

  • Finance
    CNBC

    Morgan Stanley: The stock sell-off is going to get worse

    The stock market is in the middle of a rolling bear market, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. "It's being caused by a drain in liquidity and peaking growth," Wilson says. The stock market sell-off is only going to get worse, predicts Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson.

  • These are the bad things about early retirement that no one talks about
    News
    MarketWatch

    These are the bad things about early retirement that no one talks about

    For all the glamour of living an early retirement lifestyle, there are plenty of negatives I’ve come to discover since I permanently left my job in 2012. As a result, you’re repeatedly forced to will yourself into action.

  • Brits Are All Making the Same Joke About the New Royal Baby
    News
    Time

    Brits Are All Making the Same Joke About the New Royal Baby

    Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is expecting her first child with Prince Harry. The news, announced Monday morning by Kensington Palace, has already been greeted by hundreds of messages of congratulations for the royal couple on social media. The U.K. is set to leave the European Union on March 29, exactly two years after Prime Minister Theresa May started the formal process for doing so by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

  • Why New Age Beverage Corp. Stock Popped Today
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Why New Age Beverage Corp. Stock Popped Today

    Shares of New Age Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: NBEV) were climbing again today, riding a surge on marijuana stocks as growers like Tilray, Cronos Group, and Canopy Growth all jumped by double digits. Along with the bullish sentiment in the industry, a number of other factors seemed to be driving New Age shares higher, including the recent hiring of a new CFO, the upcoming legalization of recreational marijuana in Canada on Wednesday, and the market's reaction to its launch last week of a new line of beverages infused with cannabidiol (CBD). On Friday, New Age named Gregory Gould as its new CFO, a notable move as Gould brings experience from the pharmaceutical industry, which should help the beverage company as it moves into CBD products.

  • Sears bankruptcy could make these 5 big companies multi-million-dollar losers
    Finance
    Yahoo Finance

    Sears bankruptcy could make these 5 big companies multi-million-dollar losers

    Being an unsecured creditor of Sears (SHLD) right now is not a good place to be. The 125-year old former retail icon filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection early on Monday, crippled from years of losses and mounting debt. Sears plans to close about

  • Why Marijuana Stocks Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and Tilray Crushed It Today
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Why Marijuana Stocks Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and Tilray Crushed It Today

    The three Canadian marijuana stocks that currently trade on major U.S. stock exchanges enjoyed big gains on Monday. Shares of Canopy Growth (NYSE: CGC) were up 14% as of 3:48 p.m. EDT, while Cronos Group (NASDAQ: CRON) and Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY) jumped 18.9% and 12.1%, respectively. Two of the three marijuana growers reported new developments earlier in the day.

  • Elizabeth Warren Calls on Trump to Pay $1 Million After Releasing DNA Test
    Politics
    Fortune

    Elizabeth Warren Calls on Trump to Pay $1 Million After Releasing DNA Test

    Elizabeth Warren is ready for her pay day. The senator from Massachusetts took to Twitter Monday morning, calling on President Donald Trump to cough up the $1 million he promised if she proved she had Native American heritage.

  • 3 Reasons 62-Year-Olds Should Take Social Security Now
    Business
    Motley Fool

    3 Reasons 62-Year-Olds Should Take Social Security Now

    As people approach retirement, it's natural to want to claim Social Security as soon as possible. Even though waiting beyond the earliest claiming age of 62 for retirement benefits can give you larger monthly checks, you still have to make it through

  • Jamal Khashoggi was accidentally killed during interrogation: report
    World
    Fox Business Videos

    Jamal Khashoggi was accidentally killed during interrogation: report

    Fox Business foreign policy analyst Walid Phares on the report that Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was accidentally killed.

  • Google CEO Sundar Pichai confirms censored China search engine
    Finance
    Engadget

    Google CEO Sundar Pichai confirms censored China search engine

    When Google's chief privacy officer admitted to the Senate that the company is working on a secret project called 'Dragonfly,' he refused to say what it is. According to previous reports, Dragonfly is the codename for the censored search engine Google has been developing for China since 2017 -- a search engine that can automatically identify websites banned by the country's infamous firewall and can remove them from the results page. Now, Google chief Sundar Pichai has openly confirmed the search engine's existence at the Wired 25 Summit and even told the audience that its development is going very well.

  • Many U.S. mall owners say good riddance to Sears
    Finance
    Reuters

    Many U.S. mall owners say good riddance to Sears

    The real estate investment trusts that own the malls and shopping centers where many Sears stores are anchor tenants have waited years for the retailer's demise to renovate the sites and boost rent, although redevelopment costs may strain some plans. Most large U.S. malls are controlled by REITs. In recent years, the REITs have cut their exposure to Sears Holdings Corp, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday.

  • Is This High-Flying Marijuana Stock the Next Tilray?
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Is This High-Flying Marijuana Stock the Next Tilray?

    Since then, Tilray's share price has skyrocketed to well over six times its opening-day level. At one point, Tilray was up a whopping 856% -- in just two months of trading. Now there's another marijuana stock that is beginning to turn heads.

  • As Cannabis D-Day Approaches, Winners and Losers Set to Emerge
    Business
    Bloomberg

    As Cannabis D-Day Approaches, Winners and Losers Set to Emerge

    After Canada legalizes recreational marijuana on Oct. 17, it will only take a quarter or two for clear winners and losers to emerge, according to investors and analysts who follow the sector. “These have all been concept stocks and they’re going to actually have to be real companies in another few months, which I think a lot of guys are terrified about,” said Greg Taylor, who manages the Purpose Marijuana Opportunities Fund. Taylor prefers CannTrust Holdings Inc., Hexo Corp. and Organigram Holdings Inc., which he says trade at a “more realistic valuation” than some of their bigger peers.

  • Goldman Sachs and Raymond James cut Netflix price target ahead of earnings
    Business
    Yahoo Finance Video

    Goldman Sachs and Raymond James cut Netflix price target ahead of earnings

    Netflix getting its price target slashed by both Goldman Sachs and Raymond James ahead of its highly expected earnings report tomorrow. Both firms are concerned that rising interest rates could pinch the company’s valuation.

  • Better Marijuana Stock: Aurora Cannabis vs. Auxly Cannabis Group
    Business
    Motley Fool

    Better Marijuana Stock: Aurora Cannabis vs. Auxly Cannabis Group

    One is market cap: Aurora's market cap is nearly 18 times bigger than Auxly's. Then there's stock performance. Here's how Aurora Cannabis and Auxly Cannabis Group stack up against each other in the areas that do matter.

  • Saudi Arabia Breaks 45-Year Taboo With Veiled Threat to Use Oil as a Weapon
    World
    Bloomberg

    Saudi Arabia Breaks 45-Year Taboo With Veiled Threat to Use Oil as a Weapon

    While few think that Saudi Arabia is prepared to follow through, even the suggestion of using oil as a weapon undermines Riyadh’s long-standing effort to project itself as a force for economic stability. The anxieties were exacerbated by an opinion piece penned by Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the state-owned Arabiya news network and is close to the Royal Court, in which he openly talked about using oil as a weapon.

  • Finance
    TheStreet.com

    Monday Madness: Is Nvidia a Hit or Miss?

    TheStreet's Julie Iannuzzi covered Jim Cramer's investing boot camp. Nvidia (NVDA - Get Report) has long been a favorite of TheStreet's founder and Action Alerts Plus Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer, but he told a packed audience Saturday at his Boot Camp for Investors in New York why his charitable trust recently sold out of the stock.

  • Marijuana stocks to watch: Canopy Growth is the cannabis business’s $4 billion gorilla
    Business
    MarketWatch

    Marijuana stocks to watch: Canopy Growth is the cannabis business’s $4 billion gorilla

    The following article is part of a package of stories that MarketWatch is publishing to mark the start of full legalization of cannabis for adult use in Canada on Wednesday. Smith Falls, Ontario–based Canopy Growth Corp. made headlines and drove cannabis stocks to new heights over the summer when it announced that Corona brewer Constellation Brands Inc. was going to invest an additional $4 billion in the company. Billed by both companies as a strategic partnership, the additional $4 billion investment adds to the 9.9% stake that Constellation bought in October of last year and sets the company up to either be bought outright by Constellation — via warrants that could increase its stake to more than 50% — or continue to work with the beverage company to create a range of consumer-focused cannabis products that may one day appear in markets in dozens of countries.

  • Finance
    Bloomberg

    Tesla Skeptic Surprised by How Much He Enjoyed the Model 3

    In a broader note about positive electric-car momentum, Jonas said he observed workers at Tesla’s lone auto plant in Fremont, California, who were “extremely busy cranking out Model 3s” for delivery in the U.S. He also drove the dual-motor performance version of the vehicle, which he sees as having better value-for-performance than the Model S sedan. “Frankly, our enjoyment of the high-spec version of the Model 3 took us by surprise,” Jonas said, adding that it’s “hard to say how much this matters.

  • After years of wasting time in meetings, 3 former Googlers decided to do things differently at their new startup
    Business
    Business Insider

    After years of wasting time in meetings, 3 former Googlers decided to do things differently at their new startup

    The executives of the startup Beeswax, all former Google execs, say they've learned how to keep meetings streamlined and efficient. The three founders of the ad-tech startup Beeswax seem to get that. "We're all thoughtful about not having a proliferation of meetings, because one thing we all felt in our previous careers is that there can be lots of redundant meetings," Shamim Samadi, Beeswax's chief product officer, told Business Insider.

  • Warren Buffett predicted the fall of Eddie Lampert and Sears over 10 years ago (SHLD, BRK.A, BRK.B)
    Finance
    Business Insider

    Warren Buffett predicted the fall of Eddie Lampert and Sears over 10 years ago (SHLD, BRK.A, BRK.B)

    Sears filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy early Monday, the culmination of a downward spiral. CEO Eddie Lampert, once called the "next Warren Buffett," will also step down. Incidentally, Buffett predicted the retailer's and Lampert's downfall in 2005.

  • Finance
    TheStreet.com

    General Electric Slips as Cowen Suggests Culp Needs to Take Action

    fell Monday after Cowen and Co. cut its price target on the stock as analysts expect the new Chief Executive Larry Culp to take actions to improve the beleaguered industrial's financial standing. Cowen analysts, including Gautam Khanna, said they expect Culp to impose a dividend cut, possibly raise more equity, and reset earnings per share/free cash flow, to shore up the balance sheet.

  • Business
    TheStreet.com

    Canopy Growth Is Poised to Explode to the Upside

    Shares of Canopy have soared 68% over the past three months. In this daily bar chart of CGC, below, we can see that prices are up five-fold over the past 12 months. CGC was trading at $10 back last October and now is trading around $50 with spikes above $55 last month.

  • Business
    American City Business Journals

    Best Buy, Target could win in Sears bankruptcy — unless they're right next door

    Sears Holdings Corp., which filed for bankruptcy early Monday morning, wasn't a big competitive threat to either Best Buy Co. or Target Corp. But the Minnesota retailers could be among the biggest beneficiaries if Sears goes away. Bloomberg has an early take on the possible winners and losers in a Sears bankruptcy, and counts Richfield-based Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) firmly in the "win" camp. Sears, even as its sales dwindled, remained a pretty popular place for consumers to shop for things like washing machines and stoves, and Best Buy is among the chains with a chance of capturing that business.

  • Bankruptcy judge approves financing to keep Sears open
    Business
    Reuters

    Bankruptcy judge approves financing to keep Sears open

    Sears filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in White Plains, New York earlier on Monday with a plan to close about 142 of its 700 stores by year-end and sell its best-performing stores in an auction in January to a buyer that will keep them operational. The bankruptcy filing by the parent of Sears, Roebuck and Co and Kmart Corp follows a decade of revenue declines, hundreds of store closures, and years of deals by billionaire Eddie Lampert in an attempt to turn around the company he acquired in 2005 for $11 billion. Lampert, who stepped down as Sears CEO on Monday but will remain chairman, had pledged to restore Sears to its glory days, when it owned the tallest building in the world and companies that included a radio station and Allstate insurance.