Fastenal Co Stock Shows Every Sign Of Being Significantly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of Fastenal Co (NAS:FAST, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $50.56 per share and the market cap of $29 billion, Fastenal Co stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Fastenal Co is shown in the chart below.
Because Fastenal Co is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 8.8% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 5.70% annually over the next three to five years.
Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.
It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Fastenal Co has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.38, which is in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Distribution industry. The overall financial strength of Fastenal Co is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Fastenal Co is fair. This is the debt and cash of Fastenal Co over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Fastenal Co has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $5.6 billion and earnings of $1.49 a share. Its operating margin of 20.19% better than 97% of the companies in Industrial Distribution industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Fastenal Co's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of Fastenal Co over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Fastenal Co is 8.8%, which ranks better than 74% of the companies in Industrial Distribution industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 9%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Distribution industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Fastenal Co's return on invested capital is 26.37, and its cost of capital is 9.12. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Fastenal Co is shown below:
In conclusion, The stock of Fastenal Co (NAS:FAST, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Distribution industry. To learn more about Fastenal Co stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here. To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
