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February 19th 2021: Sterling Clocks Fresh 2021 Peaks Amid Dollar Losses

Aaron Hill
·9 min read

Note—Charts provided by Trading View


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February, as you can see, remains off session lows, though currently trades 0.4 percent lower.

Downstream, 1.1857/1.1352 represents demand, while northbound shines light on ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Demand from 1.1923/1.2001—an area housing support at 1.1965 (previous Quasimodo resistance)—remains an area of focus.

RSI action remains gripping two converging RSI trendline resistances (yellow box), while circling the 50.00 centreline.

H4 timeframe:

As USD demand receded amid disappointing labour market, Europe’s single currency benefitted on Thursday.

The one-sided move higher took over 1.2075 resistance, with price movement taking on resistance from 1.2087 in recent hours. Quasimodo resistance at 1.2149 is seen to the upside, with a break uncovering the 88.6% Fib level at 1.2162 and resistance from 1.2179.

H1 timeframe:

Quasimodo support at 1.2023, a level accompanied by a 127.2% Fib extension at 1.2029, has done a superb job in holding price higher.

Thursday’s bullish impetus, as you can see, has landed candle action within a stone’s throw from the 1.21 level and 100-period simple moving average. Moving through here could direct flow to resistance at 1.2132 (a previous Quasimodo support), stationed just south of 1.2150 resistance.

RSI movement, as you can see, climbed above resistance around 54.20/47.05 and retested the upper edge of the base in recent moves, suggesting overbought conditions today.

Observed levels:

Based on current chart studies, 1.21 potentially offers fragile resistance. A H1 breakout above 1.21, therefore, could be interpreted as a bullish cue, targeting H1 resistance at 1.2132, followed by 1.2050 (aligns with H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.2149).


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

January’s half-hearted shooting star candle (often construed as a bearish indication at peaks) has so far failed to seduce sellers. February, as you can see, trades a touch off session highs, up by about 1.7 percent.

This brings light to 0.8303/0.8082—a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776). In the event sellers regain consciousness, however, long-term demand resides at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).

In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

AUD/USD bulls modestly stepped forward on Thursday, snapping a two-day bearish phase.

Upriver, beyond 2021 pinnacles at 0.7820, supply inhabits the 0.7937/0.7890 neighbourhood. Calling for attention to the downside, on the other hand, is trendline support, an ascending level drawn from the low 0.5506.

RSI flow remains flirting with trendline resistance. A downside move here has the 50.00 centreline in sight, while moves north could have the value invade overbought space.

H4 timeframe:

Current flow is seen fluctuating between resistance parked at 0.7769 and drop-base-rally demand at around the 0.7727ish region (green).

Outside of this range, support at 0.7698 can be found, a previous Quasimodo resistance, while a bullish play may target resistance drawn from 0.7805.

H1 timeframe:

H4 resistance mentioned above at 0.7769 recently made an entrance, following an earlier push off session troughs, movement that took on 0.7750 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average. A H1 close north of 0.7771 could spark a bullish theme to 0.78, despite a nearby Quasimodo resistance plotted at 0.7782.

RSI followers may also note the value climbed the 50.00 centreline, implying upside momentum is to the upside and could continue to overbought territory.

Observed levels:

Monthly and daily timeframes displaying scope to attack higher levels places a question mark on H4 resistance from 0.7769. A H1 close above the latter could have breakout buyers make a show, with 0.78 (H1) targeted, set just south of H4 resistance at 0.7805.


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Buyers are beginning to show life on the monthly scale, following January’s bullish engulfing candle.

Up by 1 percent, descending resistance (not considered traditional trendline resistance) takes the spotlight to the upside, etched from the high 118.66, whereas support inhabits 101.70.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Thursday extended Wednesday’s retracement out of supply from 106.33/105.78, consequently throwing light on the nearby 200-day simple moving average at 105.51.

The RSI indicator recently produced bearish divergence off overbought territory. Support remains on the table around 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

The October 7 (2020) peak at 106.11 made a show Wednesday and, as you can see, stimulated a bearish response that extended into Thursday’s session.

Demand remains in sight at 105.26/105.41 and 105.26/105.14 (commonly referred to as stacked demand), while should buyers eventually overthrow 106.11, a 127.2% Fib projection at 106.44 is in view, shadowed by Quasimodo resistance at 106.58.

H1 timeframe:

Technical framework on the H1 scale shows price grinding towards the 100-period simple moving average at 105.61, with a break shining light on a neighbouring trendline support, taken from the low 104.41.

Upside, we can see the 106 figure, shadowed by two nearby Quasimodo resistances at 106.09 and 106.27.

RSI fans will note the value is circling a 50.00 support area.

Observed levels:

Largely unchanged outlook.

The reaction from daily supply at 106.33/105.78 might tempt sellers to extend the unit lower and retest the 200-day simple moving average around 105.51. Given the monthly timeframe’s bullish position right now (see above), a dip to the SMA could spark a bullish theme. Note the SMA also coincides closely with H4 demand at 105.26/105.41 and H1 trendline support.


Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161)—February has refreshed multi-month highs at 1.3985.

In terms of trend structure, however, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018. In effect, the aforesaid high represents the next upside objective on the monthly chart.

Daily timeframe:

Sterling nudged higher against the dollar Thursday amidst successful COVID-19 vaccinations across the UK. As you can see, this placed supply at 1.3996/1.3918 under pressure.

North of supply we can see we have resistance parked at 1.4011, a previous Quasimodo support base (red).

RSI action remains teasing the upper edge of a 3-month range between support around 47.00 and resistance at the 66.00 region, testing overbought territory.

H4 timeframe:

For those who read previous analysis you may recall the following (italics):

Early hours Tuesday witnessed price movement puncture the upper side of supply from 1.3942/1.3900 (glued to the lower side of daily supply at 1.3996/1.3918). With many price action traders likely to view this as a bullish cue (sellers consumed at supply), dip-buying could emerge off support from 1.3852.

As evident from the chart, 1.3852 served well as support and has indeed taken on supply from 1.3942/1.3900, which has brought light to another supply at 1.4034/1.3989 (fastened to the upper side of daily supply mentioned above at 1.3996/1.3918 which also houses daily resistance at 1.4011).

H1 timeframe:

Upside gained speed heading into London hours on Thursday, overriding the 100-period simple moving average, the 1.39 figure and 1.3951 tops.

Ultimately, what this has done is throw the key figure 1.40 into the realms of possibility, a psychological barrier aligning with a 100% Fib extension at 1.4022 and a 127.2% Fib projection from 1.3996. Therefore, this is likely to be on the radar for many GBP/USD traders today.

RSI flow has recently exited overbought territory, following a peak at 79.87.

Observed levels:

The 1.40 figure on the H1 and associated Fib levels is likely to not only interest sellers, but it may also be a logical upside target for longs. Also of interest is 1.40 unites closely with daily resistance at 1.4011 and H4 supply parked at 1.4034/1.3989.


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This article was originally posted on FX Empire