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Finding Values with SFB ADP

Ryan McDowell

You might recall that I recently told you about the Scott Fish Bowl, a 1,200 team redraft league pitting fantasy analysts against their “fans.” All 100 drafts are nearly complete and even if you are not in this massive league, that should be important to you. Why? Thanks to this league, we now have deep and reliable ADP data formed from leagues filled with 1,200 fantasy diehards.

Since this is data I trust, I wanted to compare it to the general redraft ADP from users at Fantasy Football Calculator. This can tell us which players the “expert” community is higher or lower on as the season approaches.

I will note that the Scott Fish Bowl has a unique scoring system that rewards quarterbacks that regularly run the ball, so the ADP of those players could be skewed. Honestly though, fantasy players should be chasing those rushing quarterbacks anyway.

For the purpose of this article, we’ll label players as overrated (general ADP is higher than SFB ADP) and underrated (general ADP is lower than SFB ADP.)

Overrated:

Tom Brady, QB NE (-7 to QB22)

Philip Rivers, QB LAC (-5 to QB19)

Drew Brees, QB NO (-4 to QB11)

As I mentioned, quarterbacks that run the ball have an increased value in this league, pushing the pure pocket passers down the board. This huge drop for Brady also reflects a general concern for the direction of the Patriots Offense and a lack of proven pass-catchers in that offense.

Kareem Hunt, RB CLE (-11 to RB47)

I can’t even explain the RB36 ADP for Hunt in general community drafts but his RB47 rank in SFB is much more palatable. We already know Hunt will miss six games due to a league-imposed suspension and there are questions even when he returns. Of course, he’ll have to compete for touches with RB Nick Chubb along with Duke Johnson. I still expect Hunt to flash in the latter part of the season but taking him as a low-end RB3 is risky.

Darwin Thompson, RB KC (-9 to RB66)

Ryquell Armstead, RB JAC (-9 to RB67)

This pair of rookies have dynasty owners excited, but it is difficult to see a clear path for either to make a year one impact. Thompson has veterans Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde in front of him while Armstead will slot behind Leonard Fournette. In most redraft formats, this duo is not even worthy of a roster spot.

Jarvis Landry, WR CLE (-5 to WR29)

With the addition of WR Odell Beckham, the value of Browns WR Jarvis Landry has taken a major hit this offseason. Perhaps in the general drafts, his name value and past production still carries weight, but the group of SFB players has some concerns, moving him down to the mid-WR3 range.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR GB (-5 to WR46)

Geronimo Allison, WR GB (-10 to WR47)

Fantasy analysts and players have spent a lot of time this offseason trying to nail down exactly which of these wideouts has the best chance to become the clear second target for QB Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps it is that uncertainty that led to the top two options, Valdes-Scantling and Allison, to both take hits to their typical ADP. Also, it is interesting to note that Allison is the preferred option in FF Calculator data while MVS edged him out in SFB. 

Greg Olsen, TE CAR (-5 to TE19)

Jimmy Graham, TE GB (-4 to TE22)

This pair of long-time fantasy starters at the tight end position clearly have fantasy players concerned. Olsen dealt with multiple foot injuries a year ago that threatened his career while Graham just looked old and slow. These players might still turn in one more season of production but should not be close to the TE1 range.

Underrated:

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL (+6 to QB13)

As I mentioned earlier, quarterbacks that run the ball are a major asset in the SFB format, but they have increased value in all leagues. We’ve seen Jackson’s value steadily decline all offseason even after performing as a QB1 during his time as Baltimore’s starter. He is a value anywhere outside of the QB1 range.

Derrius Guice, RB WAS (+5 to RB28)

Most drafts were held before the recent news that Guice, coming off a torn ACL and having never played a regular-season NFL game, had suffered a hamstring injury. We will soon learn how much of a setback this injury might be but there are some legitimate concerns about Guice’s ability to stay on the field. The public has this one right.

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN (+7 to WR36)

Corey Davis, WR TEN (+5 to WR34)

This pair of talented receivers have high expectations but have failed to live up to those in their respective short careers. Davis saw a boatload of targets last season for the Titans but couldn’t even translate that into a WR2 season. Sutton saw a chance to be the Broncos top option as a rookie after veteran Emmanuel Sanders suffered an injury, but he was outplayed by fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton.

Mark Andrews, TE BAL (+8 to TE12)

One of the hottest assets in the fantasy community is the second-year TE Andrews, who is expected to serve as the top target for Jackson in Baltimore. He made one of the most significant jumps of any player drafted in the SFB leagues, climbing eight spots compared to his typical ADP. I expect most drafts will reflect that moving forward. If you want Andrews, be willing to reach for him.