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First 100 Days: March Weakness Sets Up 4% April Rally?

At the start of March we updated the S&P 500 Performance during the First 100 Days of new administrations since 1953 in a post titled “February Weakness Avoided, March’s Thunder Stolen?” Looking at the same chart updated through today’s close, March was indeed a dud. Instead of a respectable rally, S&P 500 fell 0.04% in March. As of today’s close it has been 75 calendar days since President Trump took office and S&P 500 has gained 3.9% which is still above historical average. Historically, March was a flat month for new Republican administrations (solid red line in chart above), but that weakness ended on average in early April and the S&P 500 rallied nearly 4% by the end of the month (black arrow). A similar result this year would put S&P 500 off this chart by the end of the month.