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First 100 Days Update: February Weakness Avoided, March’s Thunder Stolen?

Including today it has been 45 calendar days (30 trading days) since President Trump was inaugurated into office. As of today’s close, S&P 500 has climbed 4.6% over that time period. Compared to past performance at this stage of the first 100 days in office, S&P 500 performance is well above average. The prospects tax reform, healthcare reform, less regulation and increased infrastructure and defense spending propelled S&P 500 higher through the typically soft/weak period in February. However, it now appears that the rollout of previously mentioned reform and spending could take longer than anticipated while the Fed also appears ready to raise rates again in March. Typical February weakness may have only been postponed. Absent some mild pullback and consolidation, the sizable historical gains in the chart above from early-March to mid-April may have already occurred.